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War; Economic War; War; Military; War; Economic War – Do You Spot A Pattern?

War; Economic War; War; Military; War; Economic War – Do You Spot A Pattern?

The times are not just a-changin’ – they have changed. Let’s take six of the top seven headlines in the Financial Times this morning in Asia as Exhibit A:

  • ‘Biden claims oil companies are ‘war profiteering’ as he floats windfall tax’
  • ‘The Long View. Is Europe winning the gas war with Russia?’
  • ‘Military Briefing: Russia and Ukraine prepare for the rigours of winter war’
  • ‘The Big Read. Egypt and the IMF: will Sisi take the economy out of the military’s hands?’
  • ‘The nuclear threats that hang over the world’
  • ‘Live news updates: Putin says grain deal ‘suspended’ not terminated’’

Do you spot a pattern? War; economic war; war; military; war; economic war. Are you incorporating them into your forecasts? I can assure you that the vast majority of analysts still aren’t because this is apparently ‘exogenous’. If so, what is endogenous is irrelevant. Anyway, on we go into those murky waters, via a mini-edition of the Global D’Oily.

The White House has come out all guns blazing against Big Oil, calling them war profiteers (which the US is no stranger to: **cough** The 2003 Iraq War **cough**), and threatening windfall taxes. President Biden gave a public address and specifically tweeted that: “The oil industry has a choice. Either invest in America by lowering prices for consumers at the pump and increasing production and refining capacity. Or pay a higher tax on your excessive profits and face other restrictions.” Recall when in 2016 I talked of geopolitical ‘Thin Ice’ we could fall through, after which markets would no longer operate the way they used to? Well, it wasn’t just about tariffs: the US is now laying down the law to not only the Russian energy industry, but its own.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

 

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