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“Global Trade War Looms, But It’s Not Just Trade War To Fear”

“Global Trade War Looms, But It’s Not Just Trade War To Fear” History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking The UK election and the “I will protect you, but forgot my umbrella” Tory campaign have both been shaken up by its pledge to bring back conscription for 18-year-olds. This is seen as a desperate gamble and sad […]

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I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This

I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This Ideally, I would have written this on May 4th not 14th, but I am going to talk Star Wars. I was a fan in 1977, kept the flame alive when only battered VHS cassettes of the original trilogy existed, and was delighted to get prequels. Until the opening […]

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I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This

I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This Ideally, I would have written this on May 4th not 14th, but I am going to talk Star Wars. I was a fan in 1977, kept the flame alive when only battered VHS cassettes of the original trilogy existed, and was delighted to get prequels. Until the opening […]

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War; Economic War; War; Military; War; Economic War – Do You Spot A Pattern?

War; Economic War; War; Military; War; Economic War – Do You Spot A Pattern? The times are not just a-changin’ – they have changed. Let’s take six of the top seven headlines in the Financial Times this morning in Asia as Exhibit A: ‘Biden claims oil companies are ‘war profiteering’ as he floats windfall tax’ ‘The […]

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Rabobank: It’s A Depressing Idea To Admit We Have No Ideas

Rabobank: It’s A Depressing Idea To Admit We Have No Ideas It is said that small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, and great minds talk about ideas – and I would add the smallest of minds talk about themselves. The smallest-minded market view is what your individual asset class did yesterday. For […]

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Rabobank: We Are In An Undeclared Global Economic War, And Worldwide Famine Is Coming

Rabobank: We Are In An Undeclared Global Economic War, And Worldwide Famine Is Coming How Dare You Markets whipsawed yesterday after bad US initial jobless claims and Philly Fed data, with stocks down and bond yields also lower, as was the US dollar. Commodities were a mixed picture, however, and oil prices rose around 5% again […]

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No Trucking Way

No Trucking Way The financial economy and real economy used to live with each other happily: now they are in a long-distance relationship reliant on logistics to keep in touch. What happens when those logistics break down? (Very bad things, as I was discussing here the other day.) We have covered the ocean-carrier side of this […]

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Rabo: Global Supply Chains Simply Will Not Be Able To Cope With Even More Stimulus

Rabo: Global Supply Chains Simply Will Not Be Able To Cope With Even More Stimulus The Story is the Story Today is a US payrolls Friday. I have covered 277 of these releases. A handful were of any lasting interest, signalling something the market didn’t already know beforehand, and a few dozen more were higher/lower […]

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Rabobank: As With Evergiven, Evergrande Is Just The Symtpom Of Far Larger Problems

Rabobank: As With Evergiven, Evergrande Is Just The Symtpom Of Far Larger Problems It’s Ever Something On 23 March, the giant cargo vessel Evergiven got stuck in the Suez Canal and blocked it for six days. Obviously, this dominated global headlines. Even Joe Shmoe could see global supply chains were not operating efficiently because of […]

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Rabobank: We Live In A World Without Consequences Where Everyone Is Corrupt

Rabobank: We Live In A World Without Consequences Where Everyone Is Corrupt Salo News Day Regular readers will know I am a cynic. Try writing a Daily for over two decades and not be – and events over the last 24 hours underline that fact. Indeed, you could call it a “Salo News Day” in […]

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Rabobank: The Market Has Become “Springtime For Hitler”

Rabobank: The Market Has Become “Springtime For Hitler” Buy-all-the-stocks and Boom? Readers will know my view that we are living in a black comedy. There is plenty of evidence of this, but US President Biden saying it is the Taliban who are in the midst of “an existential crisis” takes the biscuit today given the US is charging […]

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Rabobank: Does The Fed Have The Intelligence To Prevent A Collapse

Rabobank: Does The Fed Have The Intelligence To Prevent A Collapse You came in like a wrecking ball “There was nothing that I or anyone else saw that indicated a collapse in 11 days.” At some point ahead, if the Fed announces QE tapering at the September FOMC meeting –despite an evident economic slowdown, no […]

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Rabo: Please Don’t Make Us Look At The Inflation

Rabo: Please Don’t Make Us Look At The Inflation Markets continue to reel: “Risk crumbles”, says Bloomberg. Why? Because there is a plaintive plea from everyone from the Fed and the Treasury down to simple peddlers of exotic derivatives: please don’t make us look at the inflation! Yes, it’s US inflation-data day – and nobody wants to see […]

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Rabo: We Are Edging Closer To A Biblical Commodity Price Increase Scenario

Rabo: We Are Edging Closer To A Biblical Commodity Price Increase Scenario We Need Some Serious Remodelling Yesterday’s Daily saw me float the model hypothesis that the Fed would like everyone to have all their money in stocks, so they would have a practical mechanism for inflating and deflating the economy above and beyond the […]

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Are We Staring At A Coming Systemic Breakdown & The End Of Capitalism?

Are We Staring At A Coming Systemic Breakdown & The End Of Capitalism? Michael Every of Rabobank is concerned we are For any problems they face, governments all over the world are now conditioned to simply deficit spend or issue new $trillions in ‘thin air’ currency. So how in danger are we of that recklessness […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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