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US Heating Oil Supplies Lowest In Decades Ahead Of Winter

US Heating Oil Supplies Lowest In Decades Ahead Of Winter

Americans are hoping the energy crisis in Asia and Europe won’t spread stateside. But industry insiders warn that winter blackouts across the US are possible as low fossil fuel stockpiles may lead to shortages amid heightened demand.

The latest concern is ultra-low stockpiles of heating oil (distillate fuel oil). In the winter of 2019–2020, about 5.5 million households used heating oil as their primary heating source, and 81% of those households were in the Northeast.

Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports there are only 31.2 days of the demand for heating oil, the lowest levels since 2000.

Low stockpiles ahead of cooler weather could be problematic for consumers who may be burdened with high energy costs, or worse, fuel shortages. Below is the two-week forecast for the US Lower 48, underlining cooler weather trends are nearing and how consumers shouldn’t wait until the last minute to fill up their tanks.

Suzanne Danforth, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd., told Bloomberg low stockpiles of heating oil won’t be as severe as the gas crisis in Europe where prices went parabolic, though she warned: “It’s going to be tight, very tight.”

One of the reasons behind low supplies is due in part to the deep freeze in Texas earlier this year that paralyzed refiners and knocked out as much as 5.5 million barrels a day of processing capacity, causing a tremendous drawdown of diesel inventories.

Inventories continued tightening through the year as a surge in truck drivers was seen to transport goods across the country. There’s also been a rise in jet fuel demand as travel rebounded, and let’s not forget farmers’ increasing diesel demand during harvest. The timing of refiners shutting down for maintenance could amplify the tightness.

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“It’s Happening Again” – Traders Store Oil At Sea As Recovery Falters

Crude prices slid Thursday as the stalled global economic recovery from the virus pandemic triggers a “second wave” of demand fears and sparks renewed interest in floating storage as the oil market flips bearish.

Reuters said a “fresh build-up of global oil supplies, pushing traders including Trafigura to book tankers to store millions of barrels of crude oil and refined fuels at sea again.”

Floating storage, onboard crude tankers, comes as traditional onshore storage nears capacity as supply outpaces demand.

Total Oil Inventories 

Refinitiv vessel data shows trading house Trafigura has recently chartered at least five crude tankers, each capable of 2 million barrels of oil.

The inventory build up, driving up demand for floating storage comes as OPEC+ recently trimmed supply curbs from earlier this year on expectations demand would improve. Though with the peak summer driving season in the US now over, demand woes and oversupplied markets are pressuring crude and crude product prices.

Very large crude-oil carrier (VLCC) storage has started to rise once again.

“Despite the recent slide in oil prices, we think that the OPEC+ leadership will continue to direct its efforts towards securing better compliance rather than pushing for deeper cuts at this stage,” RBC analysts said.

Another catalyst for the bearish tilt in crude markets is that China’s oil imports are likely to subside as independent refineries have reached maximum annual oil import quotas.

Reuters notes, in a separate report, that other top commodity traders are booking tankers to store crude products at sea, including diesel and gasoline.

Refinitiv vessel data also shows Vitol, Litasco, and Glencor have been booking tankers in the last several days to store diesel for the next three months.

“The market is soft and bearish, and floating storage is returning again,” a market source told Reuters.

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