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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Are we in a ‘New Normal’?

December 8, 2020

Are we in a ‘New Normal’? The past two years have been especially brutal to so-called equity ‘bears’. Against all odds, and despite all the shocks, global capital markets—if not the real economy they are supposed to represent—have continued to climb to new heights. After the onset of the coronavirus catastrophe, the relentless rise of […]

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The anatomy of a financial crisis

August 25, 2020

The anatomy of a financial crisis In this blog, we present the anatomy of a financial crisis. A characteristic feature of a banking crisis is that it tends to follow, more-or-less, the same path regardless of the ‘shock’ or ‘trigger’ that initiates it. The next phase of the crisis is likely to be a global […]

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The failing engines of global growth

February 18, 2019

The failing engines of global growth The global slowdown has been much discussed lately. A slowdown in Europe and China was considered to be the main reason for the December stock market rout combined with the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Federal Reserve. What is behind the slowdown? No satisfactory answer has emerged, […]

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The scenarios of the collapse

January 11, 2019

The scenarios of the collapse 2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a side-show. The market volatility […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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