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[This is a rerun from March of last year, whose time has finally come. With the new year, a sea change seems to have occurred in the financial markets: instead of “melting up,” the way they used to, they have started “melting down.” My original prediction is that this will lead to more armed conflict. Let’s see if I was right.]

Scanning the headlines in the western mainstream press, and then peering behind the one-way mirror to compare that to the actual goings-on, one can’t but get the impression that America’s propagandists, and all those who follow in their wake, are struggling with all their might to concoct rationales for military action of one sort or another, be it supplying weapons to the largely defunct Ukrainian military, or staging parades of US military hardware and troops in the almost completely Russian town of Narva, in Estonia, a few hundred meters away from the Russian border, or putting US “advisers” in harm’s way in parts of Iraq mostly controlled by Islamic militants.

The strenuous efforts to whip up Cold War-like hysteria in the face of an otherwise preoccupied and essentially passive Russia seems out of all proportion to the actual military threat Russia poses. (Yes, volunteers and ammo do filter into Ukraine across the Russian border, but that’s about it.) Further south, the efforts to topple the government of Syria by aiding and arming Islamist radicals seem to be backfiring nicely. But that’s the pattern, isn’t it? What US military involvement in recent memory hasn’t resulted in a fiasco? Maybe failure is not just an option, but more of a requirement?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Financial Trend Analyst Warns: “This Suicide Move Will Implode The Whole Thing”

November 17, 2015

Financial Trend Analyst Warns: “This Suicide Move Will Implode The Whole Thing”

Job losses across America continue to mount, housing is topping and recent reports from some of the nation’s leading retailers show that there has been no real, sustainable recovery since the crash of 2008. This, according to trend analyst Daniel Ameduri of Future Money Trends, is why nothing the Federal Reserve does with interest rates in December will make any difference for our overall long-term prospects.

But, as Ameduri notes in a recent interview with Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network, there is one particular move that would amount to nothing short of economic suicide and a rapid destabilization of the system:

I just don’t see rates going up (meaningfully) until way into the 2020’s or even the 2030’s. The biggest thing to point out to people who think that rates are going up is because that is a suicide move.

Watch the full video to learn more about the shadow statistics the government refuses to share, what to expect as these trends come to pass and how to prepare for an unprecedented financial collapse:

(Watch at Youtube)

With interest rates so low and almost into negative territory (wherein you’ll actually have to pay your bank to allow you to deposit money) any upward adjustment by the Federal Reserve will have immediate and widespread consequences.

You raise these rates just a few percentage points and all of a sudden you’re paying $600-$700 billion in interest. The important thing to point out the U.S. government generates just $2.3 trillion dollars in revenue. And if your debt interest is $700 billion, maybe even a trillion dollars in interest,that’s when the whole thing implodes.

Consider what would happen to any U.S. household that saw its monthly debt payments jump from 15% of their monthly income to 30% or more.

The financial collapse would be nearly instant.

This is exactly what we can expect should the Federal Reserve raise interest rates.

The Global Test Most Will Fail: Surviving the Bust That Inevitably Follows a Boom

November 1, 2015

The Global Test Most Will Fail: Surviving the Bust That Inevitably Follows a Boom

Now that virtually every nation is entering the bust phase, all are being tested.

Booms powered by credit, new markets and speculation are followed by busts as night follows day. This creates a very difficult test for every nation-state facing the inevitable bust: how does the leadership deal with the end of the boom?

As the world is about to learn once again, the “fix” may make the next bust even more destructive.

the “fix” may make the next bust even more destructive.

let’s start by reviewing what conditions generate booms.

1. An undeveloped nation gains access to new credit, markets and resources and go through a “boost phase” much like a rocket lifting off when suddenly abundant finance capital ignites the country’s latent growth potential. When a country with little to no public or private debt suddenly gains access to essentially unlimited capital, growth explodes.

One variant of this is the discovery of vast new resources that quickly attract capital (for example, oil) or that generate new wealth (for example, gold).

The modern example of a developing nation gaining access to new credit, markets and resources is of course China, but this model also describes America in the 1790s and early 1800s, and many other nations in various phases of their development.

2. A new sector opens up in a developed nation’s economy. A recent example is the Internet, which exploded in a boost phase from 1995 to 2000. In these cases, the new sector simply didn’t exist, and the boost phase is as spectacular as the ones in newly developing economies.

Example from American history include the railroad-fueled boom of the 1870s and 1880s and the advent of electric light and later, radio.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Don’t Think the Status Quo Will Save You

October 27, 2015

Don’t Think the Status Quo Will Save You

Here’s a chart that shows how the Status Quo “fixes” every problem: it transfers more debt and more losses to the taxpayers.

Many hold a touchingly naive faith that the Status Quo will save them even as the current system unravels. Why is this faith naive?

Let’s start with this key question: does the Status Quo strike you as being even remotely competent?

If you answer “yes,” we have to ask: what planet are you on? Mars? Here on Earth, no one that isn’t a bought-and-paid for-shill of the Status Quo would even make the risible claim of Status Quo competence, except as a bitter joke.

The Status Quo assumes we can’t deal with the truth like adults, and so it sugar-coats every unsolvable problem with lies and false assurances. The Status Quo assumption is the Great Unwashed 90% will shoot the messenger, i.e. toss out our public leadership should they be foolish enough to tell us the truth: the promises issued to you cannot possibly be fulfilled.

Not because of an evil cabal, but because the demographics and financial realities render the promises impossible to keep, regardless of who’s in office.

I’m going to get my Social Security, right? I wuz promised! Don’t be a chump, man. You’ll get something that’s called Social Security, but it will either be taxed to the point it only buys a loaf of bread or will only be worth a loaf of bread. So yes, you’ll get Social Security, but not the one you were promised or the one you’re imagining.

I’m going to get my Medicare, right? I wuz promised! Sure, you are, pal. Just not the Medicare you’re imagining, you know, the one that pays for everything.

The stock market will never crash, right?

Does this look like a stock market that will never crash again, or a stock market that’s poised to crash again? Your answer is a measure of your gullibility and faith in the Status Quo’s false assurances.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Calm Before The Storm

October 27, 2015

The Calm Before The Storm

Have you noticed that things have gotten eerily quiet in the month of October? After the chaos of late August and early September, many had anticipated that we would be dealing with a full-blown financial collapse by now, but instead we have entered a period of “dead calm” in which things have become exceedingly quiet in almost every way that you can possibly imagine. Other “watchmen” that I highly respect have made the exact same observation. Even though the economic numbers are screaming that we have entered a global recession, they aren’t really make any headline news. A whole host of major financial institutions around the planet are currently in danger of collapsing and creating the next “Lehman Brothers moment”, but none of them has imploded just yet. And of course Barack Obama seems bound and determined to start World War III. On Monday, it was announced that he is sending a guided missile destroyer into Chinese waters in the South China Sea. The Chinese have already stated that they might just start shooting if this happens, but Barack Obama doesn’t seem to care. But until the shooting actually begins, that is not likely to upset the current tranquility that we are enjoying either.

To me, what we are experiencing at the moment would best be described as “the calm before the storm”. If you are not familiar with this concept, this is how it is defined by How Stuff Works…

Have you ever spent an afternoon in the backyard, maybe grilling or enjoying a game of croquet, when suddenly you notice that everything goes quiet? The air seems still and calm — even the birds stop singing and quickly return to their nests.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Deterioration of America’s Corporate Balance Sheet

October 18, 2015

The Deterioration of America’s Corporate Balance Sheet

I don’t comment frequently on the state of financial markets these days, but the following article from Bloomberg really grabbed my attention.

It relates to interest coverage ratios across corporate America, and quite frankly, I was stunned to see how badly balance sheets have deteriorated during the recent pitiful cyclical economic rebound which I have dubbed the oligarch recovery.

From Bloomberg:

It’s more expensive for even the most creditworthy companies to borrow or refinance even as the Fed has kept its benchmark at near-zero the last seven years. Companies have loaded up on debt. They owe more in interest than they ever have, while their ability to service what they owe, a metric called interest coverage, is at its lowest since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Think about how terrifying this is for a moment. 2009 represented the nadir of a devastating economic and financial collapse. Earnings had plunged, and as you might expect, interest coverage fell into the gutter. This was a cyclical low, and so that sort of thing should be expected.

See:

The reason the current situation is so concerning, is because we aren’t in the nadir of an economic cycle at the moment. In contrast, we are constantly told how good things are going for the U.S. economy. All the while, the Fed funds rate is still stuck at near zero, with clueless central planners completely terrified to raise it a mere 25 basis points. Despite all this, the interest coverage ratio is near the 2009 low. Can you imagine what it’s going to look like when the next economic downturn really gets going?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Worst Part Is Central Bankers Know Exactly What They Are Doing

September 23, 2015

The Worst Part Is Central Bankers Know Exactly What They Are Doing

The best position for a tyrant or tyrants to be in, at least while consolidating power, is tyranny by proxy. That is to say, the most dangerous tyrants are those the people do not recognize: the tyrants who hide behind scarecrows and puppets and faceless organizations. The worst position for the common citizen to be in is a false sense of security and understanding, operating on the assumption that tyrants do not exist or that potential tyrants are really just greedy fools acting independently from one another.

Sadly, there are a great many people today who hold naïve notions that our sociopolitical dynamic is driven by random chaos, greed and fear. I’m sorry to say that this is simply not so, and anyone who believes such nonsense is doomed to be victimized by the tides of history over and over again.

There is nothing random or coincidental about our political systems or economic structures. There are no isolated tyrants and high-level criminals functioning solely on greed and ignorance. And while there is certainly chaos, this chaos is invariably engineered, not accidental. These crisis events are created by people who often refer to themselves as “globalists” or “internationalists,” and their goals are rather obvious and sometimes openly admitted: at the top of their list is the complete centralization of government and economic power that is then ACCEPTED by the people as preferable. They hope to attain this goal primarily through the exploitation of puppet politicians around the world as well as the use of pervasive banking institutions as weapons of mass fiscal destruction.

Their strategic history is awash in wars and financial disasters, and not because they are incompetent. They are evil, not stupid.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

There Are Indications That A Major Financial Event In Germany Could Be Imminent

September 22, 2015

There Are Indications That A Major Financial Event In Germany Could Be Imminent

Is something about to happen in Germany that will shake the entire world? According to disturbing new intel that I have received, a major financial event in Germany could be imminent. Now when I say imminent, I do not mean to suggest that it will happen tomorrow. But I do believe that we have entered a season of time when another “Lehman Brothers moment” may occur. Most observers tend to regard Germany as the strong hub that is holding the rest of Europe together economically, but the truth is that serious trouble is brewing under the surface. As I write this, the German DAX stock index is down close to 20 percent from the all-time high that was set back in April, and there are lots of signs of turmoil at Germany’s largest bank. There are very few banks in the world that are more prestigious or more influential than Deutsche Bank, and it has been making headlines for all of the wrong reasons recently.

Just like we saw with Lehman Brothers, banks that are “too big to fail” don’t suddenly collapse overnight. The truth is that there are always warning signs in advance if you look closely enough.

In early 2014, shares of Deutsche Bank were trading above 50 dollars a share. Since that time, they have fallen by more than 40 percent, and they are now trading below 29 dollars a share.

It is common knowledge that the corporate culture at Deutsche Bank is deeply corrupt, and the bank has been exceedingly reckless in recent years.

If you are exceedingly reckless and you win all the time, that is okay. Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank, they have increasingly been on the losing end of things.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Elite Have Prepared For The Coming Collapse – Have You?

September 7, 2015

The Elite Have Prepared For The Coming Collapse – Have You?

Why are the global elite buying extremely remote compounds that come with their own private airstrips in the middle of nowhere on the other side of the planet? And why did they start dumping stocks like crazy earlier this year? Do they know something that the rest of us don’t? The things that I am about to share with you are quite alarming. It appears that the global elite have a really good idea of what is coming, and they have already taken substantial steps to prepare for it. Sadly, most of the general population is absolutely clueless about the financial collapse that is about to take place, and thus most of them will be completely blindsided by it.

As I discussed the other day, the only way that you make money in the stock market is if you get out in time. The elite understand this very well, and that is why they have been dumping stocks for months. This is something that has even been reported in the mainstream news. For example, this comes from a CNBC article that was published on June 16th…

The so-called smart money is pulling back from market risk, with fund managers taking down exposure to stocks, increasing cash holdings and buying protection against a sharp selloff.

About two weeks before that, I discussed the same phenomenon on my website. The article that I published on May 30th was entitled “Why Is The Smart Money Suddenly Getting Out Of Stocks And Real Estate?”

Did the “smart money” know what was about to happen? Since the peak of the market, the Dow has already lost more than 2200 points. All of the gains since the end of the 2013 calendar year have already been completely wiped out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

8 Financial Experts That Are Warning That A Great Financial Crisis Is Imminent

August 5, 2015

8 Financial Experts That Are Warning That A Great Financial Crisis Is Imminent

Will there be a financial collapse in the United States before the end of 2015? An increasing number of respected financial experts are now warning that we are right on the verge of another great economic crisis. Of course that doesn’t mean that it will happen. Experts have been wrong before. But without a doubt, red flags are popping up all over the place and things are lining up in textbook fashion for a new financial crisis. As I write this article, U.S. stocks have declined four days in a row, the Dow is down more than 750 points from the peak of the market in May, and one out of every five U.S. stocks is already in a bear market. I fully expect the next several months to be extremely chaotic, and I am far from alone. The following are 8 financial experts that are warning that a great financial crisis is imminent…

#1 During one recent interview, Doug Casey stated that we are heading for “a catastrophe of historic proportions”…

“With these stupid governments printing trillions and trillions of new currency units,” says investor Doug Casey, “it’s building up to a catastrophe of historic proportions.”

Doug Casey, a wildly successful investor who’s the head of the outfit Casey Research, is predicting doom and gloom for the global economy.

“I wouldn’t keep significant capital in banks,” he toldReason magazine Editor-in-Chief Matt Welch. “Most of the banks in the world are bankrupt.”

#2 Bill Fleckenstein is warning that U.S. markets could be headed for calamity in the coming months…

Noted short seller Bill Fleckenstein, who correctly predicted the financial crisis in 2007, says he is one step closer to opening up a short-focused fund for the first time since 2009. In the meantime, Fleckenstein says the entire market could be heading for calamity in the coming months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

4 Things That Are Happening Today That Indicate That A Deflationary Financial Collapse Is Imminent

July 21, 2015

4 Things That Are Happening Today That Indicate That A Deflationary Financial Collapse Is Imminent

When financial markets crash, they do not do so in a vacuum. There are always patterns, signs and indicators that tell us that something is about to happen. In this article, I am going to share with you four patterns that are happening right now that also happened just prior to the great financial crisis of 2008. These four signs are very strong evidence that a deflationary financial collapse is right around the corner. Instead of the hyperinflationary crisis that so many have warned about, what we are about to experience is a collapse in asset prices, a massive credit crunch and a brief period of absolutely crippling deflation. The response by national governments and global central banks to this horrific financial crisis will cause tremendous inflation down the road, but that comes later. What comes first is a crisis that will initially look a lot like 2008, but will ultimately prove to be much worse. The following are 4 things that are happening right now that indicate that a deflationary financial collapse is imminent…

#1 Commodities Are Crashing

In mid-2008, just before the U.S. stock market crashed in the fall, commodities started crashing hard. Well, now it is happening again. In fact, the Bloomberg Commodity Index just hit a 13 year low, which means that it is already lower than it was at any point during the last financial crisis…

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The Bloomberg Commodity Index plunges to 13-year low, led by a drop in gold. http://bloom.bg/1I4NjGH

2:42 AM – 20 Jul 2015

#2 Oil Is Crashing

On Monday, the price of oil dipped back below $50 a barrel. This has surprised many analysts, because a lot of them thought that the price of oil would start to rebound by now.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will Puerto Rico Cause An Inadvertent “Black Swan” Derivatives Melt-Down?

July 2, 2015

Will Puerto Rico Cause An Inadvertent “Black Swan” Derivatives Melt-Down?

I really had not been paying much attention to the Puerto Rico debt situation. After all, $72 billion in debt that might go bad – big deal. The Fed can print up $72 billion in credit lines with the push of a button.

But a friend of mine happened to mention to me today (Monday) that MBIA’s stock was down over 23% and Assured Guaranty’s stock was down over 13%. That woke me up.

MBI guarantees $4.5 billion in par amount of Puerto Rico muni paper. As of it’s latest 10-Q (March 31, 2015), MBI showed a book value of $3.9 billion. Puerto Rico alone could more than wipe out MBI’s net worth. But that’s only a portion of the story. The bigger part of the story is buried off-balance sheet in the footnotes in opaque financial structures called Variable Interest Entities (VIE’s). Remember those from 2008? I remember them vividly.

The VIEs are the off-balance sheet vehicles that triggered the massive chain of counterparty defaults which de facto collapsed the U.S. financial system in 2008. The VIEs are where the credit default swaps and other nebulous forms of OTC derivatives bet slither around.

Companies like MBI and AMBAC underwrite credit “enhancement” guarantees on these massive cesspools of debt – and the associated derivatives that are “wrapped around” the debt structures – and stick them in VIEs. MBI’s 10-K has several pages of footnotes which vaguely describe the contents of its VIEs. The problem is that MBI and its ilk are thinly capitalized relative to the potential size of the liabilities they face if the credit markets become volatile to the downside.

Toxicity plus toxicity does not equal purification. But VIEs that contain off-balance sheet debt and derivative guaranteed equals toxicity cubed, at least. In other words, whatever MBI lists as its “net” credit exposure in its financials, take that number and, at the very least, triple it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Limits to Growth and Greece: systemic or financial collapse?

June 30, 2015

The Limits to Growth and Greece: systemic or financial collapse?

The results of the “standard run” (or “base case”) scenario of “The Limits to Growth” 1972 study. Could it be that the ongoing Greek collapse is a symptom of the more general collapse that the model generates for the first two decades of the 21st century?

So, we have arrived to an interesting point, to be intended in the Chinese sense of a curse. It is the point where the people of Greece are being asked to choose between starvation and slavery and this is supposed to be a triumph of democracy.

As the tragedy unfolds, people take sides, aiming their impotent rage at this or that target; the Euro, the bureaucrats of Brussels, the Greek government, Mr. Tsipras, some international conspiracy, and even Mr. Putin, the usual bugaboo of everything.

But, could it be that all the financial circus that we are seeing dancing in and around Greece be just the effect of much deeper causes? The effect of something that gnaws at the very foundations not only of Greece, but of the whole Western World?

Let’s take a step back, and take a look at the 1972 study titled “The Limits to Growth” (LTG). Look at the “base case” scenario, the one which used as input the data that seemed to be the most reliable at the time. Here it is, in the 2004 version of the study, with updated data in input.

Despite all the criticism that the LTG study received over the years, its basic soundness was repeatedly demonstrated, for instance in “The Limits to Growth Revisited.” The LTG calculations were based on a number of assumptions, the main one was that the increasing costs resulting from the gradual depletion of the world’s natural resources would bring an increasing burden on the industrial system, forcing it to slow down its growth and, eventually, to start an irreversible decline.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Economic Collapse Blog Has Issued A RED ALERT For The Last Six Months Of 2015

June 26, 2015

The Economic Collapse Blog Has Issued A RED ALERT For The Last Six Months Of 2015

I have never done anything like this before. Ever since I started The Economic Collapse Blog in late 2009, I have never issued any kind of “red alert” for any specific period of time. As an attorney, I was trained to be level-headed and to only come to conclusions that were warranted by the evidence. So this is not something that I am doing lightly. Based on information that I have received, things that I have been told, and thousands of hours of research that have gone into the publication of more than 1,300 articles about our ongoing economic collapse, I have come to the conclusion that a major financial collapse is imminent. Therefore, I am issuing a RED ALERT for the last six months of 2015.

To clarify, when I say “imminent” I do not mean that it will happen within the next 48 hours. And I am not saying that our problems will be “over” once we get to the end of 2015. In fact, I believe that the truth is that our problems will only be just beginning as we enter 2016.

What I am attempting to communicate is that we are right at the door of a major turning point. About this time of the year back in 2008, my wife and I went to visit her parents. As we sat in their living room, I explained to them that we were on the verge of a major financial crisis, and of course the events that happened a few months later showed that I was right on the money.

This time around, I wish that I could visit the living rooms of all of my readers and explain to them why we are on the verge of another major financial crisis. Unfortunately, that is not possible, but hopefully this article will suffice. Please share it with your friends, your family and anyone else that you want to warn about what is coming.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Warren Buffett: Derivatives Are Still Weapons Of Mass Destruction And ‘Are Likely To Cause Big Trouble’

June 23, 2015

Warren Buffett: Derivatives Are Still Weapons Of Mass Destruction And ‘Are Likely To Cause Big Trouble’

After all these years, the most famous investor in the world still believes that derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. And you know what? He is exactly right. The next great global financial collapse that so many are warning about is nearly upon us, and when it arrives derivatives are going to play a starring role. When many people hear the word “derivatives”, they tend to tune out because it is a word that sounds very complicated. And without a doubt, derivatives can be enormously complex. But what I try to do is to take complex subjects and break them down into simple terms. At their core, derivatives represent nothing more than a legalized form of gambling. A derivative is essentially a bet that something either will or will not happen in the future. Ultimately, someone will win money and someone will lose money. There are hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of these bets floating around out there, and one of these days this gigantic time bomb is going to go off and absolutely cripple the entire global financial system.

Back in 2002, legendary investor Warren Buffett shared the following thoughts about derivatives with shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway…

The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so
far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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