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2 Things That Are Happening Right Now That Have Never Happened Outside Of A Recession

2 Things That Are Happening Right Now That Have Never Happened Outside Of A Recession If we are not heading into a recession, why does our economy continue to act as if that is precisely what is happening?  As you will see below, we learned this week that factory orders have declined year over year for […]

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Rise of the ‘precariat,’ the global scourge of precarious jobs

Rise of the ‘precariat,’ the global scourge of precarious jobs Barely one in four of the global workforce has a stable job, UN reports With relatively little notice, the world passed a modern milestone recently, one that makes any yearning for more stable times seem very farfetched — the global jobless total passed 200 million. To […]

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What We Learned over Dinner from a Swiss Central Banker

What We Learned over Dinner from a Swiss Central Banker Dear Diary, Today… what we learned over dinner from a surprisingly smart central banker. But first, to the markets… The Dow shot up 121 Dow points yesterday, recovering most of Tuesday’s slide. In a series of business meetings Tuesday and Wednesday, we explained why nobody but us is rooting for […]

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A Recession Within A Recession

A Recession Within A Recession On Friday, the federal government announced that the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.7 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2015.  This unexpected shrinking of the economy is being primarily blamed on “harsh” weather during the first three months of this year and on the strengthening of the […]

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A Global Recession Is Inevitable

A Global Recession Is Inevitable In every market supply and demand are determining the price. Charles Biderman uses this simple logic as the foundation for his investment philosophy. The outspoken founder of the research firm TrimTabs is convinced that stock prices are a function of liquidity—the amount of shares available to buy and the amount […]

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Steen’s Chronicle: The best of times, the worst of times

Steen’s Chronicle: The best of times, the worst of times Significant changes to our JABA model’s long-term outlook Inopportune rise in gold and energy prices expected Commodities will outperform and yields will add another 100 bps Europe will suffer downturn and the US will flirt with recession in 2016  Gold is one of those items that […]

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The Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World: 286 Percent

The Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World: 286 Percent Did you know that there is more than $28,000 of debt for every man, woman and child on the entire planet?  And since close to 3 billion of those people survive on less than 2 dollars a day, your share of that debt is […]

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US Economy Collapses Again

US Economy Collapses Again 4th Time in 4 years Data released last week by the U.S. government showed the U.S. economy came to a near halt in the first three months of 2015, falling to nearly zero – i.e. a mere 0.2 percent annual growth rate for the January-March quarter. The collapse was the fourth […]

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The Next 94 Days Could Be Bad for Your Wallet

The Next 94 Days Could Be Bad for Your Wallet The Longest, Deepest Depression in US History Yesterday’s good news was that there will be no 25-year recession. “We should be so lucky,” is the way a New Yorker might react. Because the bad news is much worse. The logic of the “long depression” is simple. […]

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There Will Be No 25-Year Depression

There Will Be No 25-Year Depression Good and Bad News Today, we have bad news and good news. The good news is that there will be no 25-year recession. Nor will there be a depression that will last the rest of our lifetimes. The bad news: It will be much worse than that. On Monday, […]

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16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here

16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here If U.S. economic growth falls any lower, we are officially going to be in recession territory.  On Wednesday, we learned that U.S. GDP grew at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2015.  That was much lower […]

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Guess What Happened The Last Time Bond Yields Crashed Like This?…

Guess What Happened The Last Time Bond Yields Crashed Like This?… If a major financial crisis was approaching, we would expect to see the “smart money” getting out of stocks and pouring into government bonds that are traditionally considered to be “safe” during a crisis.  This is called a “flight to safety” or a “flight […]

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Why The Record Drop In Chinese House Prices Suggests Beijing Is Already In A Recession

Why The Record Drop In Chinese House Prices Suggests Beijing Is Already In A Recession Another month, and another confirmation that China’s hard landing is if not here, then likely mere months away. Overnight, the NBS reported that in March, Chinese house prices dropped in 69 of 70 cities compared to a year ago. According […]

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The Ghost of ’37

The Ghost of ’37 With the Fed supposedly steeling itself at last to remove a little of its emergency ‘accommodation’, it has suddenly become fashionable to warn of the awful parallels with 1937, as the highly-respected Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has notably done. That year, the story goes, the nation’s ascent from the depths of […]

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5 Charts Which Show That The Next Economic Crash Is Dead Ahead

5 Charts Which Show That The Next Economic Crash Is Dead Ahead When an economic crisis is coming, there are usually certain indicators that appear in advance.  For example, commodity prices usually start to plunge before a recession begins.  And as you can see from the Bloomberg Commodity Indexwhich you can find right here, this […]

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