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Is China’s Economy in even Deeper Trouble than We Think?
Is China’s Economy in even Deeper Trouble than We Think? Rail freight volume plunges to 2007 levels. Rail freight volumes are an indicator of China’s goods-producing and goods-consuming economy, not just manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and the like, but also consumer goods. Thus they’re also an indication of consumer spending on goods. Alas, rail freight volume is […]
China “Could Push Whole World into Fresh Economic Crisis”
China “Could Push Whole World into Fresh Economic Crisis” “The End of the Chinese Miracle” After years of big wage increases in China, the supply of cheap labor is coming to an end. The migration of rural populations to cities, which in practically no time created over 250 cities with over 2 million inhabitants, is […]
Helicopter Money “Not on the Table,” ECB Swears Furiously
Helicopter Money “Not on the Table,” ECB Swears Furiously But it’s already here! It has finally sunk in: what everyone really wants is helicopter money. Central banks, instead of transferring trillions of newly created dollars or euros or whatever to the banks should just hand them directly to the people, like dropping bank notes from […]
First Ocean Freight Rates Collapse to “Zero,” China Freight Index Plunges to Record Low, Bailouts Loom
First Ocean Freight Rates Collapse to “Zero,” China Freight Index Plunges to Record Low, Bailouts Loom The next stage of “Moral Hazard?” The amount it costs to ship containers from China to ports around the world has plunged to historic lows. As container carriers are sinking deeper into trouble, whipped by lackluster global demand and rampant oversupply […]
World Trade Collapses in Dollars, Languishes in Volume
World Trade Collapses in Dollars, Languishes in Volume This wasn’t part of the rosy scenario. The Merchandise World Trade Monitor by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, tracks global imports and exports in two measures: by volume and by unit price in US dollars. And […]
China Hard Landing Hits Electricity Consumption
China Hard Landing Hits Electricity Consumption Chairman of large power company slips, apparently. OK, we’ve heard the official story. China is transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a consumption-based economy. Consumers are king. They’re going to buy stuff. And that’s going to heat up the economy. Imports and exports have been plunging for months, but […]
This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy
This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy There is no escape. The Census Bureau announced today that total business sales in January did what they’d been doing relentlessly for the past one-and-a-half years: they fell! This time by 1.1% from a year ago, to $1.296 trillion, and by 5% from their peak in July […]
China Ocean Freight Indices Plunge to Record Lows
China Ocean Freight Indices Plunge to Record Lows There’s simply no respite. Money is leaving China in myriad ways, chasing after overseas assets in near-panic mode. So Anbang Insurance Group, after having already acquired the Waldorf Astoria in Manhattan a year ago for a record $1.95 billion from Hilton Worldwide Holdings, at the time majority-owned by […]
Economic Bubbles Are Leaking. Once They Pop, Game Over
Economic Bubbles Are Leaking. Once They Pop, Game Over
The Vacant Condos in Vancouver
The Vacant Condos in Vancouver Suddenly lurking in the shadow inventory. The magnificent housing bubble in Canada has been stumbling recently, propped up largely by the two largest cities, Toronto and Vancouver. Home prices declined 0.1% in January from a month earlier, the second month in a row of declines, according to the Teranet-National Bank […]
Dallas Fed Unplugs Oil Bulls, Warns of Liquidity Crunch, Contagion
Dallas Fed Unplugs Oil Bulls, Warns of Liquidity Crunch, Contagion “Negative ripple effects” The rally in crude oil has been red hot. In the three weeks since February 11, WTI shot up a short-crushing 34% to $34.69 a barrel at the moment. Now the talk in the oil patch is at what price these desperate […]
Is This the Beginning of the Next Recession?
Is This the Beginning of the Next Recession? “Significant risk” of “falling into contraction” with “worse to come.” The US economy is largely service based. So when the “manufacturing renaissance” and “on-shoring” that everyone had been waiting for turned into no-shows, and when instead manufacturing started slowing in early 2015, it was no big deal, […]
It Starts: Subprime Auto Loans Implode (in Your Bond Fund)
It Starts: Subprime Auto Loans Implode (in Your Bond Fund) “Fears of an impending liquidity crunch in that asset class.” “What is happening in this space today reminds me of what happened in mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the crisis,” U.S. Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry warned in October about the auto loan bubble. And […]
Signs of Mortgage Meltdown in Australia
Signs of Mortgage Meltdown in Australia “Not a question of if but when there will be a mortgage crisis.” Real estate is local – until it isn’t. Cities have their own housing bubbles that implode on their own time. But once contagion spreads to mortgages and banks and infects confidence of real estate investors and […]
