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Tag Archives: growth
If Currency Wars Have Indeed Started, This Is What Comes Next
If Currency Wars Have Indeed Started, This Is What Comes Next Even as overall volatility remains tame, things are rapidly changing in the world of currency trading where FX vol has spiked to the highest level since early October after this week’s dramatic FX rollercoaster which saw the US Treasury Secretary get this close to […]
A Fly in the Economic Ointment?
A Fly in the Economic Ointment? Global Growth Cap Repeating History Flying Blind at 20X China Chills Sonoma and San Diego The holidays are fading from memory, and 2018 is off to a good start, economically speaking. Most of the forecasts I’ve read expect a good year – not a blockbuster year or a horrendous […]
“The collapse of our civilization is not a political issue.” Really??
“The collapse of our civilization is not a political issue.” Really?? The cover article of New Scientist this week asks “Is Western civilization on the brink of collapse?” I’m glad they’re raising this question, but their discussion was extremely disappointing. First, as George Monbiot points out in a follow-up article, the article fails to distinguish between […]
What Could Push Oil To $100?
What Could Push Oil To $100? If anyone thought the latest oil market outlooks of the EIA and the IEA are upbeat, here’s an even more upbeat one from Energy Aspects: The consultancy expects crude demand this year to grow by 1.7 million bpd, and says Brent could touch above $100 a barrel in 2019. […]
Betting the Earth on a Game of Wrap-Cut-Smash
Betting the Earth on a Game of Wrap-Cut-Smash Photo by Kevin Gill | CC BY 2.0 The Earth is having to deal with continuous, largely unchecked emissions of greenhouse gases, along with soil degradation, mass extinction of species, destruction of ecosystems, and disruption of nitrogen, phosphorous, and water cycles. Meanwhile, efforts to head off the […]
Measuring The Equity Bubble – “You Are Here”
Measuring The Equity Bubble – “You Are Here” On best revisions for GDP and earnings in 2018 after Tax reform, the S&P is now less expensive than before, at just 57% above historical average… In this brief note, we wanted to update our value indicator for the S&P, after the steep consensus upgrades to US earnings and […]
The Missing Ingredients of Growth
The Missing Ingredients of Growth Several positive macroeconomic trends suggest that the global economy could finally be in a position to achieve sustained and inclusive growth. But whether that happens will depend on whether governments can muster a more forceful response to changing economic and technological conditions. MILAN/NEW YORK – Most of the global economy […]
Loonie Tumbles After Dovish Bank of Canada Hikes By 25bps, Warns Of NAFTA Uncertainty
Loonie Tumbles After Dovish Bank of Canada Hikes By 25bps, Warns Of NAFTA Uncertainty As expected by a broad majority of economists, the Bank of Canada just hiked its overnight rate by 25bps to 1.25%, the first hike by a G-7 central bank in 2018. In raising the rate, the BoC said that “recent data […]
2018: The Year of Living Dangerously
2018: The Year of Living Dangerously I’m calling 2018 “The Year of Living Dangerously.” That description might seem odd to lot of observers. Major U.S. stock indexes keep hitting new all-time highs. 2017 went down as the first calendar year in which the Dow Jones industrial average was up for all 12 months. Even in […]
Yes, But at What Cost?
Yes, But at What Cost? This is how our entire status quo maintains the illusion of normalcy: by avoiding a full accounting of the costs. The economy’s going great–but at what cost? “Normalcy” has been restored, but at what cost? Profits are soaring, but at what cost? Our pain is being reduced–but at what cost? […]
De-Growth is Feasible: People Want a New Economy
DE-GROWTH IS FEASIBLE: PEOPLE WANT A NEW ECONOMY Branko Milanovic has written a response to my argument. As I read it, I was struck by two things – both quite significant. First, Branko now seems to accept the science on how “green growth” is not a thing, and has backed off his assumption that endless […]
Un-Merry Christmas: The Perverse Incentives to Over-Consume and Over-Spend
Un-Merry Christmas: The Perverse Incentives to Over-Consume and Over-Spend Isn’t it obvious that if we set out to design the most perverse, toxic and doomed system possible, we’d end up with the Keynesian Cargo Cult’s insane permanent growth/Landfill Economy? Few topics are off-limits nowadays: the personal and private are now splashed everywhere for all to […]
China’s Growth Story…Don’t Look For a Happy Ending!
China’s Growth Story…Don’t Look For a Happy Ending! Many economists suggest China is on the cusp of significant growth in domestic consumer demand as China shifts from exporter to consumer. These economists postulate that rising domestic demand coupled with continued growth as the global exporter will push both China and the global economy into high gear. China suggests that it will achieve 6.5% […]
Global Deflation Alert: Chinese Credit Creation Tumbles To 27 Month Low
Global Deflation Alert: Chinese Credit Creation Tumbles To 27 Month Low At the end of November, we showed a troubling observation for China – and global – macro watchers from Axiom’s Gordon Johnson: for the first time ever, record Chinese credit creation had failed to stimulate the economy, and in fact the exact opposite appeared […]
IMF Stress Tests Find $280 Billion Black Hole In Chinese Banks’ Capital
IMF Stress Tests Find $280 Billion Black Hole In Chinese Banks’ Capital The IMF released a new analysis on the instability stability of the Chinese financial system. Speaking to the media in an online briefing, some of the insights from Ratna Sahay, deputy director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, hardly advanced our […]
