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Top Russia Scholar Stephen Cohen: War between NATO and Russia a Real Possibility
Top Russia Scholar Stephen Cohen: War between NATO and Russia a Real Possibility
Professor Stephen Cohen is one of the most respected authorities on Russia among American and Western scholars. He is an American scholar of Russian studies atPrinceton University and New York University. His academic work concentrates on modern Russian history and Russia’s relationship with the United States.
The key points of Cohen’s extraordinary speech:
- The possibility of premeditated war with Russia is real; this was never a possibility during Soviet times.
- This problem did not begin in November 2013 or in 2008, this problem began in 1990’s when the Clinton administration adopted a “winner-takes-all” policy towards post-Soviet Russia.
- Next to NATO expansion, the US adopted a form of a negotiation policy called “selective cooperation” – Russia gives, the US takes.
- There is not a single example of any major concession or reciprocal agreement that the US offered Russia in return for what it has received since the 90s.
- This policy has been pursued by every president and every US Congress, from President Clinton to President Obama.
- The US is entitled to a global sphere of influence, but Russia is not entitled to any sphere of influence at all, not even in Georgia or Ukraine.
- For 20 years Russia was excluded from the European security system. NATO expansion was a pivot of this security system and it was directed against Russia.
- Putin started as a pro-Western leader, he wanted partnership with the US, provided helping hand after 9/11 and saved many American lives in Afghanistan.
- In return he got more NATO expansion and unilateral abolition of the existing missile treaty on which all Russian security was based.
- Putin is not an autocrat, he’s maybe very authoritarian as an ultimate decider, but he is answerable to other power groups.
- Putin is not anti-Western, or as Khodorkovsky said, he is more European than 99 percent of Russians. He has become less pro-Western and particularly less pro-American.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why We’re Drifting Towards World War 3
Why We’re Drifting Towards World War 3
The Economist argues that there are ominous parallels between the conditions which led to the first world war and today:
The United States is Britain, the superpower on the wane, unable to guarantee global security. Its main trading partner, China, plays the part of Germany, a new economic power bristling with nationalist indignation and building up its armed forces rapidly. Modern Japan is France, an ally of the retreating hegemon and a declining regional power. The parallels are not exact—China lacks the Kaiser’s territorial ambitions and America’s defence budget is far more impressive than imperial Britain’s—but they are close enough for the world to be on its guard.
Which, by and large, it is not. The most troubling similarity between 1914 and now is complacency. Businesspeople today are like businesspeople then: too busy making money to notice the serpents flickering at the bottom of their trading screens. Politicians are playing with nationalism just as they did 100 years ago. China’s leaders whip up Japanophobia, using it as cover for economic reforms, while Shinzo Abe stirs Japanese nationalism for similar reasons.
The New Republic points out that global downturns can lead to war:
As the experience of the 1930s testified, a prolonged global downturn can have profound political and geopolitical repercussions. In the U.S. and Europe, the downturn has already inspired unsavory, right-wing populist movements. It could also bring abouttrade wars and intense competition over natural resources, and the eventual breakdown of important institutions like European Union and the World Trade Organization. Even a shooting war is possible.
The Telegraph notes that the economic crisis in Europe is increasing tensions:
Tensions between European countries unseen in decades are emerging.
(Indeed, Europe is stuck in a downturn worse than the Great Depression.)
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Special Report: Is It Time To Prepare For War?
Special Report: Is It Time To Prepare For War?
From my perspective, the made-for-public Western news copy regarding Ukraine and Russia is childishly slanted and one-sided. The level of so-called aggression by Russia cannot even remotely be compared to the United States’ naked aggression against Iraq – a country that had not attacked the US, threatened the US, or had any WMD program (which even if it did, would still have not constituted a legitimate reason for invasion by another nation under existing international law.)
So there’s a heavy dose of “Do as we say, not as we do” when it comes to US pronouncements of ‘unacceptable aggression’ on the part of Russia. Predictably, Russia is less than pleased — as in the way they would be if routinely lectured in the press by Captain Hazelwood on the importance of boating safety.
Despite Western claims, it is highly unlikely Russia has yet moved heavy equipment and troop concentrations across the Ukraine border — because if they had, you’d for sure have seen pictures. Endless pictures of those troops and equipment on TV, morning, noon and night. You haven’t seen any pictures, so none likely exist, which means no Russian army troops or military armaments are yet in Ukraine.
But that has not stopped the US and NATO from accusing Russia of exactly those transgressions in nearly every single announcement and press release.
The latest hawkish salvo by General Breedlove was so over-the-top that Germany expressed public alarm:
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The Breakdown Of U.S.-Israeli Relations Brings Us Several Steps Closer To World War III
The Breakdown Of U.S.-Israeli Relations Brings Us Several Steps Closer To World War III
In the past 40 years, we have never been closer to World War III than we are today. If you ask Americans to name what area of the globe they believe World War III will begin, the number one choice by a landslide would probably be the Middle East. And thanks to the stunning breakdown of U.S.-Israeli relations, we are now closer to that war than we have been in decades. Since the 1970s, the United States has served as the major buffer between Israel and her Islamic neighbors. Israel has trusted the United States to protect it, and Israel’s enemies have known that an all-out assault on Israel would be fruitless because the U.S. military would step in. When a minor conflict has erupted in the region, the United States has always rushed in diplomatically to settle things down. But now the relationship between the Israeli government and the Obama administration is near a breaking point, and tensions in the Middle East just continue to intensify. At this moment, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu no longer trusts Barack Obama to do what is right for Israel, and it is an open secret that Obama pretty much despises Netanyahu. And during his speech to Congress on Tuesday, Netanyahu once again made it abundantly clear that his government will never, ever allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. If Israel believes that Iran is even getting close, Israel will attack. But instead of trying to prevent this from happening, Barack Obama is negotiating a deal with Iran that would give the Iranianspretty much everything that they want and would allow them to build all the nukes they desire in about ten years. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that this is a “bad deal”, and he is right.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Lord Rothschild Warns Investors: “Geopolitical Situation Most Dangerous Since WWII”
Lord Rothschild Warns Investors: “Geopolitical Situation Most Dangerous Since WWII”
For Lord Rothschild, preserving wealth has “become increasingly difficult,” recently, as he warns, rather ominously, “we are faced with a geopolitical situation as dangerous as any we have faced since World War II.” Furthermore Lord Rothschild summarizes his thoughts briefly, eloquently, and ominously… as he touches on the global debasement of fiat currencies, disappointing growth (in light of massive monetary stimulus), and extreme stock market valuations. As Rothschild Wealth Management noted last year, equities are not well supported by current valuations, while monetary policy is limited by high debt levels and interest rates that are already close to zero… exposing equities to a potentially sharp correction.
Lord Rothschild summarizes his thoughts briefly, eloquently, and ominously…
Our policy has been clearly expressed over the years. Simply put, it is to deliver long-term capital growthwhile preserving shareholders’ capital; the realisation of this policy comes at a time of heightened risk, complexity and uncertainty. The economic and geopolitical environment therefore becomes increasingly difficult to predict.The world economy grew at a disappointing and uneven rate in 2014 after six years of monetary stimulus and extraordinarily low interest rates.
Stock market valuations however, are near an all-time high with equities benefiting from quantitative easing.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Heroes and Villains
Heroes and Villains
The poet W.B. Yeats was right in 1919 when he said the center cannot hold, as if, following the first great industrial slaughter of modern times, he discovered the lethal vacuum at the center of modernity itself. There was a lot to be nervous about after the First World War. And right away, of course, enter, stage-right, Adolf Hitler. We’re still trying to explain that cat to ourselves, and not just the Germans, either. Who cannot be awed by the appearance of genuine evil in the world?
Although, perhaps most remarkable in our time is not merely the presence of evil, but the eerie dearth of heroes, and by that I do not mean supernatural gym rats in spandex outfits swinging from the Frank Gehry condos on cords of spider silk. I mean living, breathing humans willing to engage with great and implacable forces. American sniper Chris Kyle was one of the rarees, and he was a strange case, really. Not just because of his alleged frailties, his tendency to play up his exploits, brag, maybe lie a little, but because he carried out his lethal deeds mostly at a remove — up there on the dusty rooftops of Fallujah, where he could reach out with his sniper-scope and swat human flies from a position of relative safety. Yet it is not hard to identify with his mission to kill “bad guys” — especially two years after his loopy martyrdom on a Texas gun range at the hands of a deranged fellow soldier driven mad on his own wartime mission.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
How Goes the War?
How Goes the War?
Oh, you didn’t notice that World War Three is underway, actually has been for more than year? Well, that’s because most of it has been taking place in the banking sector, which for most people is just an alternative universe of math. The catch, which many people either miss or don’t care about, is that the math doesn’t add up.
For instance, the runaway choo-choo train of linked European sovereign bond obligations with its overloaded caboose of interest rate swaps and other janky derivatives of mass destruction. That train left the station in Athens a few weeks ago bound for Frankfurt. Ever since, the German government and its cohorts in the EU, the ECB, and the IMF have been issuing reassurances that the choo choo train will not blow up when it reaches its destination.
Few people grok that Greece is an entity with an economy not much bigger than North Carolina’s, yet it is burdened with roughly $350 billion of old debt that will never be paid back. The only thing at issue is how it will not be paid back, that is, what mode of pretense will be employed to disguise the inability to pay back this debt. The mode du jour has been the crude one of lending Greece more money to pay back the interest on the old debt. A seven-year-old ought to be able to understand where that leads.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Russia Deploys Nuclear ICBM Launchers On Combat Patrol
Russia Deploys Nuclear ICBM Launchers On Combat Patrol
Perhaps it is a coincidence that a day before John Kerry’s arrival in Kiev (a visit which “coincided” with a 35% devaluation of the local currency) where among other things the US statesman discussed the possibility of official (as opposed to unofficial) deliveries of US “lethal support” to the civil war torn and now hyperinflation country, that Russia decided to put its nuclear ICBMs on combat patrol missions in various Russian regions. Specifically, according to Tass, “About 700 units of military equipment, including launchers are deployed in the positioning areas in the Tver, Ivanovo, Kirov, Irkutsk regions, as well as in Altai Territory and the Mari El republic.”
More:
The Topol, Topol-M and Yars mobile ballistic missile launchers have been put on combat patrol mission in six Russian regions, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman for Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) Colonel Igor Yegorov said on Wednesday.“The Topol, Topol-M and Yars mobile launchers are drilling combat duty tasks in six regions of the country with extended combat patrolling time. About 700 units of military equipment, including launchers are deployed in the positioning areas in the Tver, Ivanovo, Kirov, Irkutsk regions, as well as in Altai Territory and the Mari El republic,” Yegorov said.
According to him, the time of winter combat patrolling has been extended to nearly a month this year. “This means that each missile regiment will spend about 60 days per year on combat patrolling routes,” he said.
Topol is a ground-based mobile strategic intercontinental ballistic missile system. The Topol-M ICBM system belongs to the fifth generation of strategic missiles. The three-stage solid-propelled single warhead missile has a silo and mobile version. Yars is a solid-propelled mobile and silo-based intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple warhead.
Now all that is needed is for Emmett Fitz-Hume and Austin Millbarge to show up and to confirm the old saying that “a weapon unused is a useless weapon”, especially if said weapon belongs to Northrop Grumman, Lockheed or General Dynamics.
Top Russian, American and Polish Leaders Warn that Continued Fighting In Ukraine Could Lead to Nuclear War
Top Russian, American and Polish Leaders Warn that Continued Fighting In Ukraine Could Lead to Nuclear War
The Stakes Are Too High Not to Negotiate Peace
Former Soviet leader and Nobel prize winner Mikhail Gorbachev warned today that the battle in Ukraine could result in a nuclear war:
“A war of this kind would unavoidably lead to a nuclear war,” the 1990 Nobel Peace Prize winner told Der Spiegel news magazine, according to excerpts released on Friday.
“We won’t survive the coming years if someone loses their nerve in this overheated situation,” added Gorbachev, 83. “This is not something I’m saying thoughtlessly. I am extremely concerned.”
One of America’s top experts on Russia – Steven Cohen – has warned that failure to negotiate a peace treaty in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war.
Steven Starr – a nuclear arms expert and senior scientist for Physicians for Social Responsibility –warns that proposed U.S. legislation would be a direct path towards nuclear war with Russia.
Former Polish president – and famed anti-communist activist – Lech Walesa also warned that the U.S. and Nato’s arming of Ukraine could lead to a nuclear war.
Leading American political activist Noam Chomsky agrees.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Russia Warns May Send Troops To Ukraine After Congress Unanimously Votes To Give Lethal Aid To Kiev | Zero Hedge
While the market, and America’s media, was focusing over the passage of the Cromnibus, and whether Wall Street would dump a few hundred trillion in derivatives on the laps of US taxpayers once again (it did), quietly and unanimously both houses passed The Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014, which authorizes “providing lethal assistance to Ukraine’s military” as well as sweeping sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.
The measure mandates sanctions against Rosoboronexport, the state agency that promotes Russia’s defense exports and arms trade. It also would require sanctions on OAO Gazprom (GAZP), the world’s largest extractor of natural gas, if the state-controlled company withholds supplies to other European nations (yes, the US is now in the pre-emptive punishment business, and is enforcing sanctions on a “what if” basis).
But while one may debate if additional sanctions will do much to impact a Russian economy which is already impaired due to the plunging ruble, the clear escalation is that unlike previously, when the US limited itself – at least on paper – to non-lethal assistance to the Ukraine, now the US is finally preparing to send in weapons, and potentially “military advisors” as well. We say “on paper”, because in late November hacked US documents revealed the extent of secret US “Lethal Aid” for the Ukraine army. And since America’s under-the-table support for Ukraine’s insolvent armed forces has been revealed, there is little point in pretending to keep a moral upper hand (especially in light of recent “other” revelations involving the US, most notably its intelligence services).
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Jordanian King Warns Of Impending World War III
Jordanian King Warns Of Impending World War III.
When OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, imposed an oil embargo on the West for its support of Israel in the October 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the French came out with a series of public service announcements on how to save oil. The 30-second ads gave consumers advice on various ways to economize gas and oil consumption. And the announcements would end with a voice saying: “In France we don’t have oil, but we have ideas.”
Today, much the same can be said about Jordan. The country is the only one in the region not producing oil. Its neighbors – Iraq, Syria, Israel and Saudi Arabia, all produce oil to varying degrees, except for Jordan and Palestine.
And in the turbulent world that is the Middle East today, Jordan’s lack of oil may well be a blessing in disguise, rendering it financially uninteresting to groups such as the so-called Islamic State that has occupied large swaths of land from Syria and Iraq, where incidentally, oil is found. But that does not mean that Jordan is altogether off the Islamist’s radar. The country counts large numbers of sympathizers of the Islamic State and its “lighter” version, the Muslim Brotherhood. Many among them would very much like to see the Hashemite kingdom replaced by an Islamic state.
Related: Report Finds Gulf States Unstable Despite Resource Wealth
During his visit to Washington last week the King of Jordan said that the events unfolding in the region today were nothing less than the start of World War III.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Falling Oil Prices Could Cripple ‘Vulnerable’ Russia, Trigger World War III
Falling Oil Prices Could Cripple ‘Vulnerable’ Russia, Trigger World War III.
The Cold War 2.0 is going hot, and while it may someday be fought with planes, tanks, guns and bombs, the first front is being fought with oil and shale gas.
The U.S. and European sanctions against Russia will become more severe and crippling in the face of drastically falling oil prices – prices which are falling drastically because of the unprecedented boom of shale gas fracking both domestically in the U.S. and abroad in Ukraine and other locales. The oil & gas giants like Chevron and Exxon Mobil have created revolutionary conditions with now direct consequences on U.S. foreign policy and global war for dominance. Via Bloomberg:
Oil’s decline is proving to be the worst since the collapse of the financial system in 2008 and threatening to have the same global impact of falling prices three decades ago that led to the Mexican debt crisis and the end of the Soviet Union.
Russia, the world’s largest producer, can no longer rely on the same oil revenues to rescue an economy suffering from European and U.S. sanctions. Iran, also reeling from similar sanctions, will need to reduce subsidies that have partly insulated its growing population. Nigeria, fighting an Islamic insurgency, and Venezuela, crippled by failing political and economic policies, also rank among the biggest losers from the decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last week to let the force of the market determine what some experts say will be the first free-fall in decades.
“This is a big shock in Caracas, it’s a shock in Tehran, it’s a shock in Abuja,” said Daniel Yergin…
The destabilization in Ukraine and numerous spots in the Middle East – including the ISIS-threatened Iraq and Syria – have been mere preludes to what is coming.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
If Republicans Win Control of the Senate in November, Nuclear War with Russia Will Be More Likely. Here’s Why. Washington’s Blog
Senate Bill S. 2277 is sponsored by 26 Republicans and no Democrats, and it would give President Obama the virtually unlimited authority to take U.S. to war against Russia in defense of the Ukrainian Government that Obama’s February 2014 coup established in Ukraine, the government that’s controlled by a coalition of one fascist party and two nazi (or racist-fascist) parties in northwest Ukraine. (Southeast Ukraine isn’t represented in the coalition; southeast Ukraine had voted overwhelmingly — and you can see the exact percentages here – for the President that Obama’s coup toppled in February 2014.)
Paul Roderick Gregory headlined at the Forbes site on October 10th, “A Republican Senate Can Help Send U.S. Weapons to Ukraine,” and he condemned Obama for backing off on Ukraine, and said:
“I recently gave five compelling reasons for U.S. lethal aid to Ukraine, and I explained why inaction on Ukraine threatens the destruction of NATO as we know it. The American establishment elite have increasingly concluded the same: that we must give Ukraine the means to defend itself against Russian aggression. Add former defense secretary and CIA head, Leon Panetta, to a long list of diplomats (Mike McFaul, Strobe Talbot), generals (Martin Dempsey, Philip Breedlove et al.), congressmen and senators (Ben Nelson, Sander Levin, Jim Gerlach, Gerland Connoly, Robert Menendez, Bob Corker, to name just a few) who disagree with the president on Ukraine.”
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