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Santa’s Stock Market Rally: Tears of Joy, Or Just Tears?
Santa’s Stock Market Rally: Tears of Joy, Or Just Tears? Everyone who believes risk has disappeared has fallen for the con. Judging by this year’s version of Santa Claus’s reliable year-end stock market rally, risk has vanished, not just in stocks but in bonds, junk bonds, housing, commercial real estate, collectible art–just about the entire […]
EU To Restrict Movement of Cash
EU To Restrict Movement of Cash The EU is now developing strict rules for carrying cash when traveling to non-European countries and returning to Europe. The revision of the First Cash Control Regulation from 2005, which stipulated that EU citizens should register cash in excess of € 10,000 when leaving the EU or when returning […]
Government Watchdog Warns Market Crash Risk Rising: “One-Sixth Of All Hedge Funds Are 15x Leveraged”
Government Watchdog Warns Market Crash Risk Rising: “One-Sixth Of All Hedge Funds Are 15x Leveraged” One wonders if the Fed ever reads the reports issued by the Office of Financial Stability, which does a surprisingly good job of laying out the risks facing the market at any one time, which incidentally are far greater than […]
Top 30 Risky Banks – Does it Really Matter?
Top 30 Risky Banks – Does it Really Matter? The Royal Bank of Canada (RPC) has been added to the list of the top 30 banks posing the greatest risk. The top US bank is JP Morgan which is now the only bank required to hold an extra 2.5% of common equity after its US peer […]
Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk
Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk Today’s economy is in a “risk-on” period, when investors exchange safe-haven assets like US Treasury Bills for riskier ones, from real estate to carry-trade currencies. But when such behavior assumes that economic conditions are more stable than they are, as seems to be the case today, trouble inevitably follows. CAMBRIDGE […]
BofA’s Apocalyptic Forecast: Stocks Flash Crash, Bond Bubble Bursts In H1 2018, War May Follow
BofA’s Apocalyptic Forecast: Stocks Flash Crash, Bond Bubble Bursts In H1 2018, War May Follow Having predicted back in July that the “most dangerous moment for markets will come in 3 or 4 months“, i.e., now, BofA’s Michael Hartnett was – in retrospect – wrong (unless of course the S&P plunges in the next few […]
Draghi Speech: Everything Is Awesome In Europe, No Signs Of Systemic Risks
Draghi Speech: Everything Is Awesome In Europe, No Signs Of Systemic Risks Mario Draghi gave the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress this morning in which he focused on the strong outlook for the Eurozone economy and how his monetary policy is playing a vital role. The speech was peppered with upbeat phrases […]
The Real Risk to the Global Economy
THE REAL RISK TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WASHINGTON, DC – One of the great mysteries of today’s global markets is their irrepressible enthusiasm, even as the world around them appears on the verge of chaos or collapse. And yet, investors may be more rational than they appear when it comes to pricing in political risks. […]
The ‘Hyper-Crash’ Is Coming – It’s Not The Everything Bubble, It’s The Global Short Volatility Bubble
The ‘Hyper-Crash’ Is Coming – It’s Not The Everything Bubble, It’s The Global Short Volatility Bubble Two weeks ago, we discussed the recent report from Artemis Capital Management, “Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk – Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987”, authored by Christopher Cole. See “In the Shadows Of Black Monday – […]
PBOC’s Zhou Warns Of “Sudden, Complex, Hidden, Contagious, Hazardous” Risks In Global Markets
PBOC’s Zhou Warns Of “Sudden, Complex, Hidden, Contagious, Hazardous” Risks In Global Markets Just two weeks after warning of the potential for an imminent ‘Minsky Moment’, Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has penned a lengthy article on The PBOC’s website that warns ominously of latent risks accumulating, including some that are “hidden, complex, sudden, […]
Record Surge in Riskiest Loans Fattens Wall Street Banks
Record Surge in Riskiest Loans Fattens Wall Street Banks Crackdown efforts by bank regulators are put on hold. The volume of leveraged loans – the riskiest loans Wall Street banks provide – has surged 38% year-over-year and has already beaten the full-year record set in 2013, according to Dealogic. Total of leveraged loans outstanding has […]
Necessity is the Mother of Invention–Retirees Desperate Reach for Yield
NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION – RETIREES DESPERATE REACH FOR YIELD Ben Bernanke’s creativity inspired a generation of economists and central bankers. QE, ZIRP and NIRP established a new class of economics that is mathematically sound but practically disastrous. Billions of dollars were transferred from savers to investors to boost the economy, but the […]
Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk
Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987 The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the infinite nature of creation from destruction. The sign appears across cultures and […]
This is What it Looks Like When Credit Markets Go Nuts
This is What it Looks Like When Credit Markets Go Nuts Pricing of risk kicks bucket in record central-bank absurdity. As the days pass, the perverse effects of central bank policies on the financial markets are getting more and more amazing. This includes the record-setting nuttiness now reigning in the European bond market, compared to […]
These Are The Top Geopolitical Risks According To The World’s Largest Asset Manager
These Are The Top Geopolitical Risks According To The World’s Largest Asset Manager Like many others, the world‘s largest money manager with $5.9 trillion in (ETF) investments, BlackRock, is not too worried about a market which no matter what, promptly rebounds from any and every selloff, and seems to close at all time highs day […]
