Kondratiev Goes Surfing
We read recently in aSouthern California newspaper that climate change may wreck the shape and direction of waves that make for some of the world’s best surfing beaches. We wondered if it might have a similar effect on Kondratiev cycles.
Our species now has to focus on three overarching tasks:
- switching away from fossil energy and onto renewables;
- degrowing industrial dependencies and shedding our profligate ways in a very resource-constrained new environment; and
- mending the damage we’ve done by undertaking massive works of ecological restoration – returning us to a garden planet and restoring Gaia to her full health.
“Surfing is a very experiential or ‘now’ activity,” a surfer recently told the San Jose Mercury News. “When waves die in one spot and pick up in another, you move to that spot.” This is the phenomenon Kevin Kelly described as “scenius,” observing that throughout history certain geographical areas attract creative human energies, often passing into and out of their heyday with unexpected suddenness. As Benoit Mandelbrot says, “Wave prediction is a very uncertain business.”
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