End of Growth Among “Haves” Dooms Growth Among “Haves” & “Have Nots” Alike
The global economic system is premised on growth, not just any growth, but growth where it matters (economically). However, population growth (the foundation of economic growth) among the high and upper middle income nations of the world is rapidly winding down. As I have outlined previously, total births have been declining among the combined high/upper middle income nations since 1988 and now births are declining everywhere but among the low income nations of the world (HERE). Without growth among the importers of the world with the income, savings, and/or access to credit…there is no growth for exporters.
The high and upper middle income nations represent 49% of the worlds population but 91% of global GNI (gross national income) and 89% of total global energy consumption (as well as gross commodity consumption). The decades, or more properly, centuries of growth among these wealthier under 65 year old populations (that drove economic activity) will cease around 2022. All subsequent population growth will be among the 65+ year olds of the wealthier nations, particularly among the 75+yr/old population and the masses of the poor nations. The end of population growth and subsequent reversals in these wealthier nations is ushering in an era of economic and consumptive decline unlike the contemporary world has ever seen.
FYR – The national income groupings are based on the World Bank Atlas method (detailed HERE) and listed in full at the articles end. High income nations have per capita incomes over $12k/yr (and as high as $80k/yr) and upper middle nations have income per capita ranging from $12k/yr to $4k/yr. This is compared with lower middle income nations with per capita income ranging from $4k/yr to $1k/yr and low income nations below $1k/yr. All population data is based on UN data and medium variant forward looking estimates.
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