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Climate Change: Notley’s unexpected ally in growth

May 31, 2015

Climate Change: Notley’s unexpected ally in growth

If Alberta premier-designate Rachel Notley is looking to wean her province’s economy from its oil addiction, she may find that climate change, ironically enough, turns into an unexpected ally. The Prairies, once hailed as the breadbasket of the world, could find that description gain renewed currency in the years to come. With climate change set to bring about profound changes to global food production, Canada may come to find itself in something of an unforeseen sweet spot.

While the Prairies are a major grain producer, crop production is nevertheless limited by the short growing season that comes with Canada’s northern latitude. Turn the thermostat up, however, and the region’s agricultural potential begins to look different. And make no mistake—the temperature is going up. Scientists at NASA, for one, identify the Prairies as a climate change hot spot where temperatures will rise by more than the global average.

Indeed, the predicted warming has already started. Average temperatures are up 1.6 degrees since monitoring began on the Prairies in 1895. What’s more, the warming trend is accelerating. By mid-century, average temperatures in southern Alberta are expected to rise by 2 degrees compared to readings in the period between 1961 and 1990. On the northern margins of agriculture, in the Peace River region, the temperature increase is expected to increase even more dramatically.

In northern countries like Canada such temperature increases can be a game changer for the agricultural industry. Historically, crop-killing frost is the greatest constraint on production. Compared to southern latitudes, the growing season, defined by the number of frost-free days, can be cut in half. Change the dial on the thermostat, though, and farming in this country starts to look much different.

 

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