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Oil Plunges To $28 Cycle Lows As Iran Supply Looms, Stocks Slide
Oil Plunges To $28 Cycle Lows As Iran Supply Looms, Stocks Slide February WTI Crude futures have plunged to new cycle lows at $28.60 (down 2.7%) as Iran supply looms over an already over-glutted global crude market. Brent is down even more (-3.7%). Dow futures are down 60 points at the open. *WTI OIL FALLS AS MUCH AS […]
Can Mathematicians Forecast Markets?
Can Mathematicians Forecast Markets? QUESTION: Greetings Mr Armstrong and thank you for your excellent blog! I have recently started reading Benoit Mandelbrot’s The Misbehaviour of Markets in which he states that stock prices probably isn’t predictable in any useful sense of the term (p. 6). I recall that you have stated that stock prices can be […]
Markets Are Correcting Hard
Markets Are Correcting Hard An assessment of the risks of things getting worse from here The long-awaited global financial market correction has arrived. We are seeing collapses in all major markets and across all major categories. As usual, the pain has started at the edges, in the weaker elements (emerging markets, junk bonds, weak companies, etc.) […]
Looking for Sanity in an Insane World
Looking for Sanity in an Insane World Why has China become so important? Largely because global investors are in this transition mode and do not understand how or why the foundation of everything is changing beneath them. The market turmoil in China spread around the world on Thursday as global investors took their lead from China as […]
China, Oil and Markets: It’s All One Story
China, Oil and Markets: It’s All One Story If there’s one thing to take away from this year’s developments in markets and economies so far, it’s that they are all linked, they’re all part of the same thing. If you can’t see that, you’re not going to understand what’s happening. Looking at falling oil prices […]
Stock Markets All Over The World Crash As We Begin 2016
Stock Markets All Over The World Crash As We Begin 2016 The first trading day of 2016 was full of chaos and panic. It started in Asia where the Nikkei was down 582 points, Hong Kong was down 587 points, and Chinese markets experienced an emergency shutdown after the CSI 300 tumbled 7 percent. When European […]
Unmanageable Money, Part 2: Hedge Funds Keep Losing — And Closing — And Why It Matters
Unmanageable Money, Part 2: Hedge Funds Keep Losing — And Closing — And Why It Matters How do you make money in a world where history is meaningless? The answer, for a growing number of big fund managers, is that you don’t. Hedge funds, generally the most aggressive species of money manager, do a lot […]
Even The Big Banks Now Admit It: “This Is How The Fed’s ‘Massive Manipulation’ Broke The Market”
Even The Big Banks Now Admit It: “This Is How The Fed’s ‘Massive Manipulation’ Broke The Market” Raise your hand if this sounds familiar: markets are calm, things are stable, stocks are levitating on virtually no volume… and suddenly there is a price ‘air pocket’ as one or more assets unexpectedly plunge in what has become […]
The Political Consequences of Financial Crises
The Political Consequences of Financial Crises LONDON – I may not be the only finance professor who, when setting essay topics for his or her students, has resorted to a question along the following lines: “In your view, was the global financial crisis caused primarily by too much government intervention in financial markets, or by […]
Honey, I Broke the Markets
Honey, I Broke the Markets “Donald Trump looks like the villain in a movie where the hero is a dog.” – The internet. Which four letter word still has an amazing capacity to cause offence, anxiety and aggravation ? In the world of investment, that word would have to be R-I-S-K. Do we even have […]
Today Will Be a Watershed Moment for Financial Markets
Today Will Be a Watershed Moment for Financial Markets I believe the world is at the greatest financial market inflection point since 1929. One that calls for a basic truism: You can make a profit in a rising market if you are long. And you can profit in falling market if you are short. The […]
Market Manipulation Confusion
Market Manipulation Confusion QUESTION: You say that long-term manipulations are impossible while short-term manipulations have been the focus of the bankers. Do you mean to say that not even governments can manipulate the economy perpetually? Are central banks buying US equities to manipulate the US stock market higher? It would seem that the Fed would then […]
The Leviathan
The Leviathan The economic picture manufactured by the national consensus trance has never been more out of touch with reality in my lifetime. And so the questions as to what anyone might do can hardly be addressed. How can I protect my savings? Who do I vote for? How do I think about where my […]
Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?
Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear? Why the recent volatility may mark a secular shift Emotions are running high for the investment community in the wake of recent market volatility. Up until August, we had been in the third longest period in market history without a 10% correction. Since then, stock indices […]
