This week’s B.C. budget has set the province up to miss its climate goals, according to critics.

The province has pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to 16 per cent below 2007 levels by 2025 and 40 per cent below by 2030. But Tuesday’s budget doesn’t create a clear path to hit that goal, advocates say.

The most recent data on B.C.’s total emissions is from 2018, when B.C. emitted a net 66.9 million tonnes of greenhouse gasses, 6.2 per cent above 2007 levels.

The climate plan calls on the province to cut that to 53.3 million tonnes by 2025.

But emissions seem to be going up, not down, says Andrew Gage, a staff lawyer with West Coast Environmental Law.

Over the next few years, the budget predicts that carbon tax revenue will increase. Dividing that revenue by the carbon tax rate shows the province expects increasing emissions for the next two years.

In 2020/21, greenhouse gas emissions covered by the tax totalled 41 million tonnes. That’s projected to increase to 44.1 million tonnes this year and 44.4 million tonnes in the next year, before declining to 42.3 million tonnes in 2023/24.

Those numbers don’t tell the whole picture, cautions Gage, because only 70 per cent of emissions are covered by the carbon tax. But planning on increasing emissions until 2023/24 gives the province very little time to course correct and slash emissions to hit its 2025 goal, he said.

“The fact that carbon-taxed emissions continue to rise until two to three years before 2025 raises questions about how we will meet that target. Particularly with LNG Canada coming online in 2025,” Gage said.

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