What is the outcome when three market skeptics sit down for dinner to discuss the future of the global economy? Whatever it is, it’s hardly optimistic.

In his latest note released moments after the big CPI upside surprise and titled, what else, “We just had a small taste of coming financial collapse. Still feeling lucky?“, SocGen’s permabearish Albert Edwards writes that he had dinner this week with “two of the great, London based, sellside macro analysts,” George Magnus (formally UBS Chief Economist and now at the China Centre, Oxford University), and Nomura’s Bob Janjuah. This is what was discussed:

In the aftermath of last week’s surge in equity volatility among many of the topics we discussed was the extraordinary ballooning of the US budget towards 6% of GDP at this late stage of the cycle. My view is that this fiscal expansion is probably the most foolhardy escapade in modern economic policy history.

Here Edwards posits that while he agrees that US corporate taxation is anomalously high, “it is the timing of the fiscal stimulus that is utterly ridiculous and will only accelerate the collapse of US financial markets as the Fed hikes rates even more quickly.”

That also happens to be his key thesis: Trump’s tax cuts will so overheat the economy, that the outcome will be another deflationary crash.

While he returns to the topic of the unprecedented fiscal stimulus at a time when the economy already appears to be overheating, Edwards first points out two charts we showed last week, namely the technical breakout in the 10Y and what that could mean for risk assets. Quote Edwards:

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