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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Dethroning the King: Five ways Trump could weaken the dollar

Key messages: Time to consider how Trump could weaken the dollar

  • President Trump’s ramped up verbal jawboning in recent weeks suggests that current USD strength may be the upper bound of the White House’s tolerance level
  • We identify five policies that the White House could employ to weaken the dollar: (1) US FX intervention and building out US FX reserves; (2) Changing the rules of the game for the Fed; (3) Ongoing jawboning and talking down the dollar; (4) Pressuring major trading partners to strengthen their currencies; (5) Creating a US sovereign wealth fund.
  • We don’t think any small-scale unilateral intervention by US authorities will have a sustained impact on weakening the dollar. The best historical precedent – the Bush FX interventions in 1989-1990 – shows that this approach had a limited impact in driving the USD materially lower.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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