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The Next Flu Explosion: Rise In Obesity And Diabetes Will Exacerbate Future Pandemics

Scientists involved in a new study published this month in the research journal, Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology, have sounded the alarm over their ability to contain future flu pandemics in relation to the rise of obesity especially in the West today.

The study finds that growth rates in obesity and diabetes, along with populations which are increasingly resistant to antibiotics, could turn even a mild flu outbreak into an explosive global pandemic.

Image source: Getty via ABC News

One of the authors of the study, Dr Kirsty Short, virologist at the University of Queensland, told The Telegraph of the link between obesity and spread of dangerous diseases: “There’s been an incredible rate of increase of diabetes and obesity even in my lifetime.” She explained“This has significant implications on infectious diseases and the spread of infectious disease.”

Dr. Short continued, “But because chronic diseases have risen in frequency in such a short period of time, we’re only starting to appreciate all of the consequences.”

Reflecting on the now century old Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918, which infected a third of the global population and is estimated to have killed between 50 and 100 million people, she said of the next big outbreak, “we know that there will be one”.

The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic occurred as WWI was winding down. Historical photo via AP

“As our population is ageing and chronic diseases are becoming so prevalent, that could turn even a mild pandemic into a chronic one,” Dr. Short concluded.

Though modern medicine and vaccines are better prepared to mitigate the impact of a major outbreak than in 1918, issues like obesity and diabetes more broadly present in society will likely provide a significant hindrance to prevention and treatment, scientists fear, as these conditions could alter the body’s immune response, leading to greater rates of hospitalization and even death.

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Epidemic Levels: Tens of Thousands Infected as this Year’s Flu Vaccine Totally Ineffective 

Epidemic Levels: Tens of Thousands Infected as this Year’s Flu Vaccine Totally Ineffective 

The 2017-2018 flu season has shown to be particularly nasty this year —in part, they believe, because of a less effective vaccine. Each month, flu case have multiplied and CDC has already warned this year’s flu will be worst than the last. To date, 23 states are showing widespread influenza levels and many believe this season could easily reach epidemic levels.

Headlines across the country are indicative of epidemic fears.

An Ineffective Flu Shot Has Led to Health Concerns

The results of tests performed by public health laboratories, as well as the age group distribution of influenza positive tests, during the current week are summarized below.

Week 50 Data Cumulative since
October 1, 2017 (Week 40)
No. of specimens tested 1,623 15,994
No. of positive specimens* 795 5,046
Positive specimens by type/subtype
    Influenza A 689 (86.7%) 4,387 (86.9%)
    A(H1N1)pmd09 58 (8.4%) 366 (8.3%)
    H3N2 611 (88.7%) 3,965 (90.4%)
    Subtyping not performed 20 (2.9%) 56 (1.3%)
    Influenza B 106 (13.3%) 659 (13.1%)
     Yamagata lineage 75 (70.8%) 438 (66.5%)
     Victoria lineage 10 (9.4%) 39 (5.9%)
      Lineage not performed 21 (19.8%) 182 (27.6%)

*The percent of specimens testing positive for influenza is not reported because public health laboratories often receive samples that have already tested positive for influenza at a clinical laboratory and therefore percent positive would not be a valid indicator of influenza activity. Additional information is available at http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm.

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