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Fourth Turning Economics

Fourth Turning Economics

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe 

Image result for total global debt 2019

The quote above captures the current Fourth Turning perfectly, even though it was written more than a decade before the 2008 financial tsunami struck. With global debt now exceeding $250 trillion, up 60% since the Crisis began, and $13 trillion of sovereign debt with negative yields, it is clear to all rational thinking individuals the next financial crisis will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. We are approaching the eleventh anniversary of this crisis period, with possibly a decade to go before a resolution.

As I was thinking about what confluence of economic factors might ignite the next bloody phase of this Fourth Turning, I realized economic factors have been the underlying cause of all four Crisis periods in American history.

Debt levels in eurozone, G7, US and Germany

The specific details of each crisis change, but economic catalysts have initiated all previous Fourth Turnings and led ultimately to bloody conflict. There is nothing in the current dynamic of this Fourth Turning which argues against a similar outcome. The immense debt, stock and real estate bubbles, created by feckless central bankers, corrupt politicians, and spineless government apparatchiks, have set the stage for the greatest financial calamity in world history.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Timidity and Palliatives While the Planet Burns

Timidity and Palliatives While the Planet Burns

Photograph Source: Eric Fisk – Public Domain

The best conditions for genuine discussion, for me at least, is during a feast of good food and drink. Ancient Greeks called that symposium.

The wisdom behind the tradition of symposium – millennia ago and today — is simple. Friends and guests eating food and drinking wine feel good about themselves. Organic food well-cooked and excellent wine do that. They are medicines. In such euphoria, symposiasts are very likely to be honest, even eloquent, in their expression of their views or opinions.

This is the reason Plato chose the dialogue for the spreading of his ideas. The dialogue comes from intimate symposium discussions.

Today I often hear Americans speaking in radio or television saying this and that must be part of a “national conversation.” I wonder what they have in mind.

Invisible civil war

This is because in the second decade of the twenty-first century Americans are divided as never before. Republicans are embracing guns, perpetual wars, corporate plutocracy, America-first, and ecocide. Indeed, Trump and the Republicans are now moving the country for a possible war against Iran.

The Democrats advocate policies that may improve the well-being of Americans. Yet when the Democrats had the White House and Congress, those policies were timid in fixing the gross inequality among rich and poor in America. In addition, Democrats have yet to propose a coherent plan to diminish and end global warming.

Given this political instability, verging on soft civil war between the rich and poor, the cultural elites are covering up the schism by palliative measures, especially unpolitical but fashionable talk in the academy. Professors pontificate about sexuality, race (whites or blacks or lesbians for new appointments?) and other anthropological headings.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Demise of Democracy

The Demise of Democracy

Leonardo da Vinci Vitruvian man c1510

Leonardo wrote: “Vitruvius, architect, writes in his work on architecture that the measurements of man are distributed in this manner”:

The length of the outspread arms is equal to the height of a man.
From the hairline to the bottom of the chin is one-tenth of the height of a man.
From below the chin to the top of the head is one-eighth of the height of a man.
From above the chest to the top of the head is one-sixth of the height of a man.
From above the chest to the hairline is one-seventh of the height of a man.
The maximum width of the shoulders is a quarter of the height of a man.
From the breasts to the top of the head is a quarter of the height of a man.
From the elbow to the tip of the hand is a quarter of the height of a man.
From the elbow to the armpit is one-eighth of the height of a man.
The length of the hand is one-tenth of the height of a man.
The root of the penis [Il membro virile] is at half the height of a man.
The foot is one-seventh of the height of a man.

It’s almost silly to write anything on Brexit right now, because at right now+1 everything may have changed again. But almost silly is not the same as completely silly. At this point, whatever the outcome will be, it will serve to ridicule the idea and image of the UK as a functioning democracy. Something that ironically all participants in the Kabuki theater claim to be intent on preventing.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Civil War Would Erupt If “Green Deal” Socialists Actually Get What They Want

Civil War Would Erupt If “Green Deal” Socialists Actually Get What They Want

In the months preceding the 2016 presidential election, I predicted a Trump election win but tried to temper expectations with the reality that there were multiple scenarios exploitable by globalists which could turn the conservative elation into confusion and chaos. Just after the election, I published an article titled ‘Order Out Of Chaos: The Defeat Of The Left Comes With A Cost’. In that article I warned that the political Left, when confronted with failure, has displayed a habit of doubling or tripling down and becoming even more extreme in their rhetoric and policies. I also warned that this might influence the political Right to become more extreme in response.

This is the problem when attempting to explain the False Left/Right Paradigm to people who are new to the concept. Yes, at the top of the political pyramid, all the players support essentially the same policies of centralization and more power to the elites. But, at the bottom of the pyramid, there are numerous and legitimate divides among common citizens. The divides are real, not false, and it is these divides that the elites seek to exploit.

One divide that we are likely to hear much more about in the next two years is the divide between “old school” democrats and the new “green deal” socialists/communists. Another more vitriolic divide is the one between common sense conservatives and the “double down” socialist cult.

The narrative being constructed here is a fascinated but disturbing one. Consider the pattern on display:

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

American Civil War 2: US media will have only itself to blame if all hell breaks loose

American Civil War 2: US media will have only itself to blame if all hell breaks loose

American Civil War 2: US media will have only itself to blame if all hell breaks loose

© Getty Images / Melanie Stetson Freeman / The Christian Science Monitor 

For the first time in years, the drumbeat of civil war has become audible across the United States. The nation looks destined to repeat history thanks to a media that is no longer able to objectively perform its job.

The predominantly left-leaning US media has just entered its third consecutive year of open warfare against Donald Trump. This non-stop assault risks aggravating political passions to the point where ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ snowballs into something completely beyond our ability to control. Like full-blown Civil War.

Over the weekend, the Washington Post, one of most prominent serial producers of partisan agitation, published an article entitled, ‘In America, talk turns to something unspoken for 150 years: Civil War’. The piece, which deftly places Democrats above the fray, opens with the following whiff of grapeshot:

“With the report by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III reportedly nearly complete, impeachment talk in the air and the 2020 presidential election ramping up … there’s talk of violence, mayhem and, increasingly, civil war,” the Bezos-owned paper forewarned.

With a level of audacity and self-righteousness that has become a trademark of the Left, not once did the article float the possibility that just maybe the mainstream media is complicit in the ongoing deterioration of political discourse, or that the Democrats are just as much to blame as the Republicans for the political fallout that now presents a grave risk to the Republic.

As many knowledgeable Americans will openly admit, battle lines have been drawn across the political and cultural frontier. This division is perhaps most conspicuous on social media, where friends and family who disagree with our political worldview get the ‘nuke option’ and are effortlessly vanquished (‘unfriended’) with the push of a button. This is a worrying development.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘The People’ Know What They Want and Just Might Get It – Good and Hard

‘The People’ Know What They Want and Just Might Get It – Good and Hard

‘The People’ Know What They Want and Just Might Get It – Good and Hard

A survey of nations in what was once known quaintly as the Free World shows some of them engaged in what could best be described as a cold civil war.

Such a condition is inherently unstable. One possible future is one where the cold conflict becomes hot with unforeseeable consequences. Another is that one side successfully represses the other before violence reaches a certain threshold.

Now before we go any further, let’s make one thing clear. Whatever the country and its specific ills, we can be sure that Vladimir Putin is the culprit. According to Stephen Collinson of CNN(“Another good day for Putin as turmoil grips US and UK”):

‘In London, Theresa May on Tuesday suffered the worst defeat in the modern parliamentary era by a prime minister, as lawmakers shot down her Brexit deal with the European Union by a staggering 432 votes to 202.

‘The United States, meanwhile, remains locked in its longest-ever government shutdown, which is now entering its 26th day, is nowhere near ending and is the culmination of two years of whirling political chaos sparked by President Donald Trump.

‘It’s hard to believe that two such robust democracies, long seen by the rest of the world as beacons of stability, have dissolved into such bitter civic dysfunction and seem unmoored from their previous governing realities. [ … ]

‘The result is that Britain and the United States are all but ungovernable on the most important questions that confront both nations.

‘That’s music to Putin’s ears.

‘The Russian leader has made disrupting liberal democracies a core principle of his near two-decade rule, as he seeks to avenge the fall of the Soviet empire, which he experienced as a heartbroken KGB agent in East Germany.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Rising Tide of Civil Unrest Globally

COMMENT: Hello Martin,
thanks a lot for your awesome work. I am from Germany and just wanted to let you know that the political situation here is more and more becoming like 1933. Last week, there was a bombing of an AFD office in Döbeln (Saxon). Luckily nobody got injured. Yesterday one AFD Politician, Frank Magnitz was brutally attacked by 3 masked men and severely injured. He is only alive because a workman saw the attack and prevented worse. If you see the pics of him, it is pure luck he is still alive. They hit his head with a log and kicked it with their boots! This was a clear murder attempt! Still, the other political parties find it hard to condemn the deed. Some even claim it is deserved and the ‘evil fascists’ need to be stopped – even by killing them! This is getting extremely worrying and a lot of people are scared that we will head into a civil war, caused by murderous leftists.

Greetings, P

REPLY: Unfortunately, this is exactly what the computer is forecasting. We are in a rising cycle of civil unrest. The political divide is growing everywhere even in the United States. This will ONLY lead to outright violence and in many cases civil war. The left is ALWAYS the most violent. They are not tolerant of opposition. I did not vote to for President Carter back in the 70s. Nevertheless, I made a fortune due to his inflationary policies and I never protested against him or claimed he was not my president.

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Will the 2020 Presidential Election be the Most Violent in American History?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Thanks to you I am paying closer attention to what people are saying in politics these days. It seems to be that this was not a Blue Wave they were waging but a Blue War. It is very disturbing to see the hatred is still brewing against anyone who just wants to be left alone. Is this the foundation for the rising civil unrest that turns to a civil war?

HU

ANSWER: Unfortunately, YES! It is really very bad. The CNN political analyst Kirsten Powers actually said that all white women who voted for Donald Trump are racist! She then added that there were those who felt they had to select Trump because Hillary Clinton was simply a terrible candidate whom they could never support. We have three girls all under thirty in the office and they do not identify with Hillary’s ’60s Bra-Burning attitude. The one thing they did not like was Hillary said women were equal and should be drafted into the army as well.

The Clintons have been touring Canada with their usual exploitation to raise a never-ending pot of money. The attendance has been at best 50%. They are drawing fewer and fewer audiences.

It will only get much worse over the next two years and by the time we get to 2020, it is not going to look very civil out there. We have crossed the line. Violence and hate speech is not the norma. There is no tolerance for people to accept an opposing view.

U.S. Supreme Court decided on March 6th, 1857 (1857.178), ruled (7–2) that a slave (Dred Scott) who had resided in a free state and territory (where slavery was prohibited) was not thereby entitled to his freedom because African Americans were not and could never be citizens of the United States.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

France: The Incredible Shrinking President

France: The Incredible Shrinking President

Macron’s Popularity Collapses While Interior Minister Predicts Civil War
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Emmanuel Macron, the current president of the French Republic, is a weird dude. Now, after just 18 months in power, he is also a very unpopular dude. The French media have been making much of the fact that Macron’s prime minister, Édouard Philippe, has been slightly more popular than the president in certain polls. But really, what we are seeing is an almost perfect parallel collapse in popularity of both personalities.

That French presidents are unpopular is nothing new. However, there is a secular trend in them getting unpopular more and more quickly upon getting into office. True, Macron is not as unpopular after 18 months as was the hapless and squishy François Hollande, who could deliver on virtually none of his Socialist economic promises. However, Macron as collapsed in popularity more quickly than Nicolas Sarkozy did, who was a one-term president.

The English-speaking Macron said he wanted to turn France into a “start-up nation.” A bold ambition, but it’s worth remembering that 90% of start-ups go bankrupt.

I personally don’t understand the French electorate on these matters. Macron in particular did not promise anything other than to deliver more of the same policies, albeit with more youth and more vigor, as a frank globalist. Who, exactly, was excited at his election but is disappointed now? People with a short attention span or susceptibility to marketing gimmicks, I assume.

It is hard to talk about the French media without getting a bit conspiratorial, at least, I speak of “structural conspiracies.” Macron’s unabashed, “modernizing” globalism certainly corresponds to the id of the French media-corporate elites and to top 20% of the electorate, let us say, the talented fifth. 

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Politics: The Cancer that must be Eradicated once and for all

Politics: The Cancer that must be Eradicated once and for all

In the United States two political parties have now divided the nation with the kind of violent partisan rhetoric that erupted just before the Civil War.

The 2016 election of Donald Trump as president set off a tidal wave of anger and resentment that has divided America into two bitterly opposed camps. Those on the left consider Trump to be the embodiment of evil whereas many on the right see him as a “disrupter” and champion of the common man. The recent mid-term elections revealed that this conflict between pro-Trump and anti-Trump forces continues unabated. The political divide in America now is characterized by revenge-minded Democrats who are determined to remove Trump from office and those who will fight to prevent this from happening. As a result, the country will be mired in a lengthy political power struggle while important issues affecting the lives of millions will be neglected. America – sad to say – is currently a nation in crisis.

If a team of scientific crisis management experts were assembled to assess the cause of this problem they would surely arrive at the conclusion that it is “politics” pure and simple. The solution, therefore, would be the abolition of all political parties.

This is actually not a new idea. The French philosopher Simone Weil made this suggestion more than seventy years ago. This seemingly radical proposal has been resurrected and supported by the award-winning Canadian journalist Andrew Nikiforuk. As he pointed out this past summer:

“In the United States two political parties have now divided the nation with the kind of violent partisan rhetoric that erupted just before the Civil War. Across the Western world, political parties have turned parliaments into digital circuses, provoking waves of contempt among ordinary people…

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American Politics Is Now Just Civil War by Other Means

American Politics Is Now Just Civil War by Other Means

American Politics Is Now Just Civil War by Other Means

In the wake of the sending of bomb-like devices of uncertain capability to prominent critics of US President Donald Trump and of a mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue (both Trump’s fault, of course) – plus a migrant invasion approaching the US through Mexico – there have been widespread calls for toning down harsh and “divisive” political rhetoric. Of course given the nature of the American media and other establishment voices, these demands predictably have been aimed almost entirely against Trump and his Deplorable supporters, almost never against the same establishment that unceasingly vilifies Trump and Middle American radicals as literally Hitler, all backed up by the evil White-Nationalist-in-Chief, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Those appealing for more civility and a return to polite discourse can save their breath. It’s much, much too late for that.

When Trump calls the establishment media the enemies of the people, that’s because they – together with their passive NPC drones and active Antifa enforcers – are enemies, if by “the people” we mean the historic American nation. Trump’s sin is that he calls them out for what they are.

Trump didn’t cause today’s polarization, he only exacerbates it because he punches back. Good, may he continue to do so. Pining for a more well-mannered time in a country that belongs to another, long-gone era is futile.

American politics is no longer about a narrow range of governing styles or competing economic interests. It is tribal. Today’s “tribes” are defined in terms of affinity for or hostility to the founding American ethnos characterized by European, overwhelming British origin (a/k/a, “white”); Christian, mainly Protestant; and English-speaking, as augmented by members of other groups who have totally or partially assimilated to that ethnos or who at least identify with it (think of Mr. Hamadura in The Camp of the Saints).

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Are You Prepared for Lockdown? How to Stay Safe When All Hell Breaks Loose in America

Are You Prepared for Lockdown? How to Stay Safe When All Hell Breaks Loose in America

Tensions are incredibly high in the United States right now. I realized that over the past three years, I’ve written that they’re “at an all-time high” far too many times. So, I’ll just say, they’re high enough that all hell could break loose at any moment given the right (wrong) application of fuel to the flame. The number one thing you can do for this situation to keep your family safe is to be prepared for lockdown.

Pretending that it isn’t happening or hoping to hug it out is not a rational response to the chaos that is coming.  I know that some cling to their misguided views on the way the world works with the ferocity of a mother bear protecting cubs, but for the rest of us, there’s this thing called reality. When we accept it, we can prepare for it.

People near the border are quite reasonably concerned that if thousands of immigrants push through our border illegally, they and their families could be at risk. People in other parts of the country are concerned about the aftermath of whatever happens when these people arrive at the border. Regardless of what occurs, somebody is going to be unhappy. Add in the fiercely-fought midterm elections and the threat of civil unrest is high.

Are you prepared for lockdown?

Which leads me to a very important subject. As the situation in the United States devolves, how prepared are you really? If you had to go into lockdown mode and keep your family safely at home, how long would you last with the supplies you have on hand? If the answer is “a few days” or “a couple of weeks” you need to work on that. Immediately.

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The Monster Mash


The sad reality is that last week’s Pittsburgh synagogue massacre is only the latest float in the long-running parade of ghastly homicidal spectacles rolling across this land and will be just as forgotten in one week as was last year’s Las Vegas Mandalay Bay slaughter of 58 concert-goers plus over 800 wounded and injured, a US record for non-military acts of violence. The Pittsburgh shootings elbowed the mass pipe bomber, Cesar Sayoc, out of the news cycle — but then Sayoc didn’t manage to actually hurt any of the high-profile figures he targeted with his mailings. What I wonder — and what the news media has so far failed to report — is just how incompetent a bomb-maker Sayoc was. Fake news meets fake bombs.

One of the strange side effects of an epic American political hysteria is this strange ADD-like inability of the public to focus on anything for more than a few moments, even the most arresting atrocities. The hysteria itself is too compelling, like the actions of a human limbic system driving the collective public psyche from fight to flight on the wild horses of pure emotion. Reason has been discarded by the wayside just as a super-drunk person will shed his clothing even on a freezing night. Total culture war now beats a path toward all-out civil war, with the looming mid-term election as a fulcrum of history.

The country is not “divided,” it’s sliced-and diced like a victim in one of the Halloween bloodbath movies now so beloved by movie audiences that they must be regularly updated. It’s hardly a stretch to say that the US public sees its collective self as a throng of zombies lurching across the ruined landscape in search of a dwindling supply of brains, and they even seem to take a certain comfort in that endeavor, as though the zombies were performing a meritorious public service ridding the nation of as many brains as possible.

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The View of American Politics from Afar

COMMENT: This business with Trump and the media is quite amazing when seen from a distance. I read posts from people who can not see past what they are believing. It’s as if the hate for Trump has become a Religion. A religious person will refuse to look at things from another perspective and this is what is happening in your country.

K (UK)

REPLY: Oh yes. It has been whipped up into a religious frenzy. What the media and the Democrats have overlooked is they have gone WAY TOO FAR and this is indeed becoming a religious quest and therein lies the danger for HUGE civil unrest. After the November elections, there is NO POSSIBLE WAY that either side will accept the results. This means historically the only solution becomes violence. The Media is so hateful of Trump because he has called them the fake news. But he has only stated what the majority believe and those in the media refuse to acknowledge. Most Americans cannot even name a nonbiased neutral news source! Gallup Poll now shows that 45% see a great deal of political bias in news coverage, up from 25% in 1989.

We are cascading into the War Cycle and believe me, this is NOT a forecast I even like to repeat. It is not something where I am warning people to reverse course or else, because there is no reversing this trend. We are a fly on the rear-end of an elephant with no shot of steering him in the right direction. We simply have to ride it out until the bloody end.

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“This Is A Coup, Okay”: Bannon Weighs In On Anonymous Anti-Trump Op-Ed

Responding to an anonymous Op-Ed in the New York Times detailing an active resistance within the Trump White House, former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon told Reuters that President Trump is facing a “coup” the likes of which haven’t been seen since the American Civil War.

What you saw the other day was as serious as it can get. This is a direct attack on the institutions,” Bannon said while flying to Italy. “This is a coup, okay”.

The Wednesday column in the New York Times slams Trump’s “amorality” and claims that “Many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.”

Bannon told Reuters that the last time a sitting US president had been challenged like this was during the American Civil War when Democratic General George B. McClellan went after Republican President Abraham Lincoln.

This is a crisis. The country has only ever had such a crisis in the summer of 1862 when General McClellan and the senior generals, all Democrats in the Union Army, deemed that Abraham Lincoln was not fit and not competent to be commander in chief,” said Bannon – whose departure from the White House was in large part over a fallout with Trump’s “establishment” advisers. Bannon said at the time that the “Republican establishment” sought to nullify the results of the 2016 election and effectively neuter Trump.

“There is a cabal of Republic establishment figures who believe Donald Trump is not fit to be president of the United States. This is a crisis,” Bannon said in Rome.

“I am not a conspiracy guy … I have said there is no deep state. It is an in-your-face state.” -Steve Bannon

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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