It’s time to move on to pastures new from my Saying NO… book, as I mentioned in my last post. Seems like an opportune moment to try an ‘open comment’ post to signal the change of direction, an idea I trailed at the start of the year.

What I think emerged from that discussion was for me to suggest a broad topic and perhaps a few talking points from it and then to see where things went in the discussion. Kind of like a normal post! Back then, Ruben wrote “ I would love to hear your thoughts on AMOC shutdown, drought, more frequent extreme weather, and other growing challenges for agriculture. That might be a good topic for an open post.” Indeed I believe it would be, so let’s go with that.

In case this is unfamiliar, the ‘AMOC’ is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the major current system in the Atlantic Ocean, involving the northward flow of warm water and the southward flow of colder water which helps moderate the climate of both colder high-latitude countries and warmer low-latitude ones. Studies have suggested that present human-caused climate change could result in the shutdown of the AMOC, the consequences for both colder and warmer countries within this Atlantic system being, not to overstate the case … very bad.

A recent study that models AMOC shutdown has put the heebie-jeebies up a lot of people, including me – see Prof Stefan Rahmstorf’s summary here. Seems like we could be on course for an AMOC shutdown tipping point within the next seventy years with 95 percent confidence…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Will AMOC Kill Us All?

March 18, 2024

Will AMOC Kill Us All?

Draft script:

You’ve probably heard a lot about the AMOC, which is short for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current. Based on my awkward pronunciation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, you can understand why I prefer the acronym, AMOC. With this video, I will provide an overview of the AMOC, including how it threatens to rapidly cool a significant portion of Earth. I will then explain why I’m skeptical of this outcome.

CNN published an article on 26 July 2023 titled A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that ‘would affect every person on the planet.’ The first two paragraphs follow:

“A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and ‘affect every person on the planet.’”

“A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream in a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.”

The paper was published in Nature Communications, not Nature. But I digress.

It is no exaggeration to claim that the AMOC is critical to the continued retention of habitat for life on Earth. It is a complex tangle of currents that, among other things, works like a giant conveyor belt that transports warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic. At this point, the water cools and becomes saltier. It therefore sinks deep into the ocean before spreading south. Importantly, the AMOC contributes to the regulation of global weather patterns. Its collapse would trigger extreme winters and rising sea levels in western Europe and the northeastern United States. Further from home, a collapsed AMOC would shift the timing and magnitude of the tropical monsoon.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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