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A world war in waiting: After Iran’s attack, it’s almost here

April 17, 2024

A world war in waiting: After Iran’s attack, it’s almost here

Nobody wants World War III — but it’s foolish to pretend we’re not at the edge of that abyss

A barrage of rockets was launched by Lebanese group Hezbollah from southern Lebanon towards Galilee in northern Israel, on April 12, 2024 in Lebanon. (Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images)

An act of war. I’ll just bet you didn’t see or hear those words in any coverage over the weekend of Iran’s aggression from the air on Israel. What else can we call 120 ballistic missiles; 170 armed drones; 30 cruise missiles? That’s what Iran fired at Israel Saturday night. One report I read said the barrage was fired from three countries in addition to Iran: Iraq, Yemen and Syria. How would you feel if you were walking down the street on Saturday night in Chicago or Indianapolis or Phoenix or Seattle, and suddenly you began to hear the sound of explosions, and you looked up and saw streaks of flaming debris from exploded missiles falling to the ground? Would it feel like you were witnessing a war on the city where you live, on your country?

You bet it would, especially when you consider what went into the Iranian attack. Iran knew that Israel has spent the last few decades building its so-called Iron Dome missile defense capability – a complex system of radars and anti-missile missile launchers that encircle its military installations and population centers like Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa and the cities in Israel’s north within striking distance of Hezbollah missiles. We can be certain that Iran spent days if not weeks preparing for Saturday night’s strike, working out a plan to launch its barrage of drones and missiles to reach targets in Israel in a swarm that might overwhelm Israel’s anti-missile and anti-aircraft defense system.

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Iran Threatens America’s Military Bases Across Middle East If US Supports Israeli Counterattack

April 14, 2024

Iran Threatens America’s Military Bases Across Middle East If US Supports Israeli Counterattack

The Saturday evening fireworks show in the Middle East marked Tehran’s first full-scale military attack on Israel. Although largely unsuccessful, concerns mount that US military bases in the region might be targeted with ballistic missiles and suicide drones if the US supports an Israeli retaliation strike.

Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari told The Washington Post that Iran launched 300 drones and missiles at Israel, adding that “more than 99 percent” had been intercepted by either Israel or the US. President Biden condemned Tehran’s “brazen attack” on Israel and told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about America’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel’s security. However, the US president warned Netanyahu that the US won’t support counterattack strikes against Iran.

Ahron Bregman, a political scientist and expert in Middle East security issues at King’s College in London, told The New York Times that Iran’s direct attack on Israel last night was the first of its kind from its own territory, calling it a “historic event.”

Over the years, Tehran has used foreign proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels to strike Israeli interests. At the moment, the Houthis are targeting US, UK, and Israeli-affiliated commercial vessels in the Southern Red Sea. And early Saturday, Iran seized an Israeli-affiliated container ship near the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran’s attack on Israel is a major escalation. There are mounting concerns that Israel could strike back. If so, Iran warned Washington that US military bases could be in the crosshairs of missiles and suicide drones.

“Our response will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran,” Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, told state media, as quoted by The Times of Israel…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Biden Tells Bibi: US Will Not Support A Counterattack Against Iran After Hundreds Of Drones, Missiles Sent

April 14, 2024

Biden Tells Bibi: US Will Not Support A Counterattack Against Iran After Hundreds Of Drones, Missiles Sent

Update(Midnight ET): It is just after 7am Israel local time and Israel’s military is reporting the Iranian attack has stopped, several hours after Iran said its ‘limited’ operation has “concluded” – which involved an unprecedented hundreds of suicide drones as as well as ballistic missiles sent against Israel in retaliation for the April 1st Israeli attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus. Below is the top story from English-language Times of Israel:

Hebrew media reports claim that not a single drone or cruise missile managed to infiltrate Israeli airspace.

According to the unsourced reports, most ballistic missiles were also knocked down outside of Israeli airspace.

A report in Ynet says some 20 cruise missiles were downed short of Israel’s borders. The US, UK and Jordan helped take down many of the drones.

Israel is reporting very little damage inside the country (though previously admitting “minor damage” against at least one key airbase in the south).

After the enormous Iranian drone and missile swarm a senior Israeli official has been quoted by Israel’s Channel 12 as saying “Iran’s attack was a strategic failure.” The official added in a threatening manner, “Now they can get ready and not sleep in peace.” Israel’s war cabinet appears to be readying a military response…

Crucially, the Biden White House appears to be strongly signaling to the Netanyahu government that the attack is ‘done’ and that the United States will not back any follow-up counterattack operations against Iran:

US President Joe Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US will not aid any Israeli counterattack on Iran, US media report, citing senior administration officials.

Axios and CNN report that message was passed during a phone call between the pair.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Middle East Crisis: Container Ship Hijacked Near Strait Of Hormuz Amid Soaring Iran Tensions

April 13, 2024

Middle East Crisis: Container Ship Hijacked Near Strait Of Hormuz Amid Soaring Iran Tensions

While Israel on Friday braced for cruise missile and suicide drone attacks, there are new reports on Saturday morning that Iranian commandos hijacked an Israeli-affiliated container ship heading towards the Strait of Hormuz.

AP News says the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations initially reported the hijacking of Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries, a container ship linked to London-based Zodiac Maritime. Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer controls the international ship management company that owns and charters large vessels.

Video of the boarding has been circulating X for the past hour. However, “AP could not immediately verify the video, it corresponded to known details of the boarding, and the helicopter involved appeared to be one used by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has carried out other ship raids in the past,” the media outlet said.

According to Bloomberg data, MSC Aries was leaving a port from Dubai on Thursday and heading towards the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel’s last known position was recorded around 1256 local time on Friday off Dubai’s coast. AP noted that the ship’s transponder had been switched off.

X user Megatron called the ship’s seizure by Iran a “big game changer”:

This once again is confirming that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar are helping Israel bypass the Houthi blockade by land route from the UAE port.

Iran is now cutting that route as well.

If Hezbollah cut the Mediterranean route with its drones, Israel could fall into a complete trade blockade.

The incident in the Strait of Hormuz is very concerning since maritime chokepoints in the region are plagued with conflict. Off of Yemen, in the Bab-El Mandeb Strait, Iran-backed Houthis have unleashed multi-month drone and missile attacks against US, UK, and Israeli vessels.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Says If US ‘Interferes’ In Retaliation On Israel, American Bases Will Be Struck

April 12, 2024

Iran Says If US ‘Interferes’ In Retaliation On Israel, American Bases Will Be Struck

Update(1317ET): Israeli hospitals have been put on a high state of alert by the home command, awaiting an ‘imminent’ Iranian retaliation attack. Iran has also reportedly put the United States on notice…

Three U.S. Officials told Axios : Iran has sent a message to the U.S. through several Arab countries, that if they interfere in Iran’s response against Israel, U.S. bases in the region will be struck.

Meanwhile, Russia just chose quite the wrong moment to conduct a test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from its Kapustin Yar airbase in southern Russia. The rocket was reportedly seen soaring high in the atmosphere from parts of northern Iraq and Iran, triggering concerns it was Iran beginning its attack.

Below are some breaking headlines:

ALERT US sends reinforcements to Middle East amid fears of Iran attack: official
A large number of Iron Dome missiles were launched in the Upper Galilee after a salvo of 50 missiles was launched from Lebanon
Israel’s Channel 12 reports Home Front Command has sent hospitals a message in the last hour asking hospital managers to ensure staff availability.
The White House has Confirmed a change in U.S. Force and Alert Posture across the Middle East, but has Refused to go into further details.

Hezbollah appears to have ramped up its missile salvos over northern Israel:

There are also new reports that the US Navy has parked an advanced missile ship just off Israel’s coast, readying to assist with a possible response.

* * *

Update(1116ET): At a moment US intelligence has indicated that Iran could strike Israeli soil in the next 24 to 48 hours, a top US general was spotted at an airbase in central Israel on Friday…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Blames UN Security Council ‘Inaction’ For What Comes Next

April 11, 2024

Iran Blames UN Security Council ‘Inaction’ For What Comes Next

We previously reported that Iran now considers Israel’s embassies and diplomatic sites abroad as essentially fair game in the wake of Israel’s April 1st airstrikes on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, which killed two high-ranking IRGC generals and at least five others.

An analyst from the Middle East Institute, Jason Brodsky, observed last week that “There are reports Iran’s regime may be eyeing hitting an Israel diplomatic compound in a third country via drones & missiles. Israel maintains embassies in Bahrain; UAE; Jordan; Egypt; Azerbaijan; & Turkey. I would keep an eye on Jordan.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry had underscored in reacting to the Israeli strike on the Iranian consular compound “the inviolability of which is guaranteed by the relevant Vienna Conventions, to be categorically unacceptable.” Indeed it was unprecedented for a nation’s military to intentionally attack another state’s sovereign embassy. Iran is outraged at the UN Security Council’s silence.

Iran on Thursday is making noise over this at the UN Security Council in New York. Iran’s permanent mission to the UN has blasted the council for failing to condemn Israel’s “reprehensible act of aggression” on Iran’s diplomatic premises in Syria. Al Jazeera reports the Iranian ambassador’s fresh statement as follows:

It said in a statement on X that if the perpetrators had been brought to justice, “the imperative for Iran to punish this rogue regime [Israel] might have been obviated.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials have promised retaliation for the attack on the consulate building that killed members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals.

So Iran is now saying that in light of UN inaction, which has not so much resulted in verbal censure of Israeli actions, it will be ‘forced’ to respond militarily.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark 1970s Oil Shock Fears

April 5, 2024

Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark 1970s Oil Shock Fears

Larry MacDonald of The Bear Traps Report penned a very informative note last month that outlined, “2023-2024 look a lot like 1973-1974.” He said, “We’re one event away from a 1970s-style stagflation explosion…” History books remind us that the 1973 oil embargo shook the global energy market.

We were reminded of MacDonald’s note because the global benchmark Brent is currently being subjected to a major repricing event of geopolitical risk as Israel makes preparations for a potential retaliation by Tehran after a precision strike in Syria earlier this week killed top Iranian commanders.

“The market now knows that some kind of retaliation from Iran will likely come, but it doesn’t know when and where and what, and that creates a great discomfort and nervousness,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB, told Bloomberg.

On Thursday, UBS desk trader Alexander Gray outlined several bullish factors into Brent’s surge that has the benchmark around $91/bbl handle:

Rally / buying right into the 14:30 New York energy close – suggests heavy index fund prepositioning ahead of GSCI roll onset tomorrow where energy will be weighted in the index
Geopolitics – reports of potential attacks within Iran and also potential retaliation toward Israel following Monday’s airstrikes.
Bullish consensus and flow – a number of Street strategists have been out today talking about upside risk toward the $95-100 range in crude. Meanwhile, flows here have skewed toward upside buying in the options space
Technicals – Front-month WTI crude oil just completed a ‘golden cross’ technical formation with the 50- and 200-day moving average crossover. The front month is aimed at $88.58 above; $91.08 is key as the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level in Brent… which is precisely where Brent is trading at this moment..

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Israel Warns Iran Of Massive Regional War If Directly Attacked

April 5, 2024

Israel Warns Iran Of Massive Regional War If Directly Attacked

Update(1831ET): With Israel’s embassies around the world on a heightened state of alert, and extra IDF reservists called up, and home and weekend leave for all combat troops having been abruptly canceled Thursday, the Israeli population is anxiously awaiting a response – with some reports saying residents are already seeking the safety of bomb shelters.

Tehran has vowed that vengeance is coming soon for the Monday Israeli airstrike on its embassy in Damascus. Most pundits believe this will take the form of ballistic missiles raining down on Israeli cities. But Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly vowing that if the Islamic Republic launches missiles from its soil it will ensure “a strong response” from Israel.

Israeli officials have told Axios late in the day that such an act would “take the current conflict to another level” — which most certainly would involve a direct Israel-Iran war and thus the eruption of a broader regional conflict. Axios adds the following observations:

Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza have attacked Israel but there hasn’t been an attack from Iranian soil.
A direct Iranian strike on Israel would be unprecedented and could lead to a regional war in the Middle East.

Netanyahu informed his security cabinet Thursday that Israel’s forces have already been engaged with Iran “both directly and via its proxies, and therefore Israel is operating against Iran and its proxies, both defensively and offensively.”

A statement issued by the prime minister’s office laid out: “We will know how to defend ourselves and will operate according to the basic principle of whoever is harming or planning to harm us — we will harm him.” The White House has meanwhile issued a statement shortly after Biden and Netanyahu discussed the Gaza crisis, saying “President Biden made clear that the United States strongly supports Israel in the face of those [Iranian] threats.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Oil Surges Over $90, Stocks Tumble After Israel Puts Embassies Around World On Maximum Alert

April 4, 2024

Oil Surges Over $90, Stocks Tumble After Israel Puts Embassies Around World On Maximum Alert

At this point Israel’s ties with key Gulf countries like the UAE are near breaking point, after only a few short years ago diplomatic normalization was hailed through Trump’s Abraham accords. But international and Israeli press reports are confirming the UAE has announced it is halting all coordination on humanitarian aid with Israel.

Further, as Israeli media reports: “The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a suspension of diplomatic coordination with Israel in the wake of the death of seven World Central Kitchen humanitarian workers in Gaza.” Simultaneously, Israel is busy putting its embassies across the world on high security alert due to the “heightened Iranian response threat” in wake of Monday’s Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. All of this served to send Brent soaring in the last two hours, with Brent spiking above $90 for the first time since October….

… and sending stocks tumbling to session lows.

With Iran vowing that its retaliation is coming at any moment, Israel’s military is scrambling for readiness, with the latest measure being to pause all home leave for all combat troops.

“The IDF is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed,” the Israeli military said.

President Biden is meanwhile is said to be “pissed” with PM Netanyahu over the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza, though Israel acknowledged that it was a “grave mistake”.

So far this sounds like more mere empty words of “concern” – a talking point that’s been on repeat from the White House even as its Gaza policy continues slowly fracturing the Democratic base – but Biden is said to have pressed Bibi for “an immediate ceasefire”.

The call readout further said ceasefire is needed to “protect innocent civilians” in Gaza and improve the humanitarian situation. Axios writes that Biden gave his Israeli counterpart an “ultimatum” as the US president “emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable.”

“IDF At War”: Israel Scrambles GPS Signal As Iran Revenge Attack Imminent

April 4, 2024

“IDF At War”: Israel Scrambles GPS Signal As Iran Revenge Attack Imminent

With ever-present fears, Tehran could launch a missile or drone attack against Israel to avenge the deaths of three commanders and four officers of the Iranian Armed Forces, taken out by a precision Israeli airstrike at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus earlier this week. New data suggests that GPS jamming across Israel is likely related to prudent defensive efforts to counter such an attack.

On Thursday, Reuters journalists and Tel Aviv residents said GPS service deteriorated and, in some cases, entirely disrupted as an attempt by the military to prevent guided missiles and drones from hitting critical high-value targets deep within the nation.

Many bombs, drones, and other weapons use GNSS (global navigation satellite systems) for increased accuracy. Signs of GNSS signals disrupted are more evidence Israel is on the defensive as it awaits missile attacks from Iran.

Data from the GPS interference website “GPSJAM” shows large swaths of Israel have high levels of GPS interference.

Other signs the conflict in the Middle East is broadening and entering a new dimension are reports that the Israeli military halted leave for all combat units on Thursday.

“The IDF is at war, and the deployment of forces is under continuous assessment according to requirements,” the military told Reuters in a statement.

In a separate report, Israel’s military said it was strengthening its aerial defense system with reserve soldiers:

“It was decided to increase manpower and draft reserve soldiers to the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) Aerial Defense Array.”

This follows the deaths of some of the highest-ranking leaders in the Quds Force, who were in charge of Iran’s covert intelligence and military operations across Syria and Lebanon on Monday. The strike was among the deadliest for the Iranian military in years (read: “ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead: This Is A Declaration Of War”).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Major Gas Pipeline Explosion In Iran Deemed ‘Terrorist Sabotage’

February 15, 2024

Major Gas Pipeline Explosion In Iran Deemed ‘Terrorist Sabotage’

In the overnight hours reports emerged of two explosions along Iran’s main south-north gas pipeline network. At least one of the massive fires that resulted was caught on video, which widely circulated, leading to speculation over whether it was an accident or attack.

Iran’s Oil Minister Javad Owji later in the day said the blasts were caused by sabotage, but did not name any suspects or possible external entity responsible. He also called it a “terrorist act”.

“This terrorist act of sabotage occurred at 1 a.m. local time on Wednesday morning (2130 GMT Tuesday evening) in the network of national gas transmission pipelines in two regions of the country,” Owji said.

He described that area settlements had suffered gas outages, but there were no mention of casualties as a result of the pipeline blasts which occurred in central Iran, near the city of Borujen.

According to Deutsche Welle, “Owji pointed to a similar incident in 2011, which he called an act of sabotage, that temporarily cut gas to four different regions of the country.” And according to more details of the fallout:

Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, reported early Thursday that the targeted pipeline is the main conduit for transporting natural gas from refineries in the Persian Gulf to major cities including Tehran, Esfahan, and Mashhad.

These explosions resulted in the closure of roads in the surrounding areas for hours, forcing residents of neighboring villages to spend hours on the streets due to fear as large flames engulfed the surrounding areas. Reports indicate that the sound of explosions and the glow of flames were visible within a radius of 60 kilometers, leading to the gas supply being cut off to dozens of villages.

Videos of the aftermath showed flames expanding high into the air…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Iraqi parliament calling to ditch US dollar for oil trade

February 4, 2024

Iraqi parliament calling to ditch US dollar for oil trade

Washington has exercised strict control over Iraqi oil revenues for the past two decades

(Photo credit: INA)

The Finance Committee in the Iraqi parliament made a statement on 31 January calling for the sale of oil in currencies other than the US dollar, aiming to counter US sanctions on the Iraqi banking system.

“The US Treasury still uses the pretext of money laundering to impose sanctions on Iraqi banks. This requires a national stance to put an end to these arbitrary decisions,” the statement said.

“Imposing sanctions on Iraqi banks undermines and obstructs Central Bank efforts to stabilize the dollar exchange rate and reduce the selling gap between official and parallel rates,” it added.

The Finance Committee affirmed its “rejection of these practices, due to their repercussions on the livelihoods of citizens,” and reiterated its “call on the government and the Central Bank of Iraq to take quick measures against the dominance of the dollar, by diversifying cash reserves from foreign currencies.”

Washington imposed sanctions on Iraqi Al-Huda Bank this week, under claims of laundering money for Iran. Several other banks have been hit with similar sanctions over the past year.

The statement came the same day a senior US Treasury official said Washington expects Baghdad to help identify and disrupt the funds of Iran-backed resistance factions in Iraq.

“These are, as a whole, groups that are actively using and abusing Iraq and its financial systems and structure in order to perpetuate these acts and we have to address that directly. Frankly, I think it is clearly our expectation from Treasury perspective that there is more we can do together to share information and identify exactly how these militias groups are operating here in Iraq,” the official stated.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Playground of choice’: Iran mobilises to drive US troops out of Iraq

January 23, 2024

‘Playground of choice’: Iran mobilises to drive US troops out of Iraq

The US has the cudgel of the American dollar to prevent its expulsion from Iraq, but will the Biden administration use it?

When Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in New York City in September for the UN General Assembly, a delicate truce was in balance between the two foreign powers that loom over Baghdad.

Iraqi paramilitaries, backed by Iran, had frozen their attacks on US troops in the country. Iraq’s new leader arrived in New York City amid the lull. He was feted on a circuit of swanky receptions with western businessmen and diplomats on the sidelines of the General Assembly, as he pitched Iraq’s oil-rich but corruption-riddled economy as an investment destination.

Four months later, the Iraqi leader is condemning Iran and the US for launching deadly strikes in his country and his investment pitch to the global elite at Davos Switzerland is overshadowed by his call for the US military and its coalition partners to leave Iraq.

Since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October and the war in Gaza, Iranian-backed militias have launched at least 70 attacks on US forces in Iraq.

In early January, the US hit back with its most powerful response yet, launching a drone strike in Baghdad that killed Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, also known as Abu Taqwa, a senior commander in the Popular Mobilisation Units, an umbrella organisation of Iraqi state-funded and Iran-aligned, Shia militias.

Baghdad hit out at the strike as “a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty”. But no sooner was Iraq chastising the US for the strike, when Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles into the Iraqi city of Erbil, killing four people, including a prominent Kurdish real estate developer and his one-year-old daughter.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Iran Warns Against US ‘Adventurism’ After Parking Cruise Missile-Armed Warship In Red Sea

January 10, 2024

Iran Warns Against US ‘Adventurism’ After Parking Cruise Missile-Armed Warship In Red Sea

The Red Sea continues to grow busy with the presence of naval assets, as the West and its allies attempt to keep international shipping lanes open despite the threat of Houthi missiles and drones launched from Yemen. This has lately included nations such as Denmark, Pakistan and Sri Lanka sending military ships to regional waters as well.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken while meeting with Arab leaders over the weekend before he arrived in Israel Monday evening said, “These attacks are having a real effect on the prices that people have to pay for food, for medicine, for energy. Ships have to get diverted to other places. Insurance rates go up.”

Maritime and industry analyst Sam Chambers has observed, “Over the weekend, the number of transits through the Suez Canal fell to the lowest since the waterway was blocked by the Ever Given containership in early 2021, according to Inchcape Shipping Services.”

*Iranian warship Alborz, file image, Fars News Agency/AP*

But amid the heavy presence Western coalition military ships, there is now an Iranian frigate parked in the Red Sea after its arrival starting nearly a week ago. “2024 was only a few hours old when Iran dispatched a warship, the frigate Alborz, to the Red Sea,” FP recently noted. “Its arrival was yet more bad news for shipping, already facing a crisis from the Iran-backed Houthi attacks on merchant vessels.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has issued a new statement warning Israel and America against ‘adventurism’ which will expand war in the region:

“Iran issues a stern warning against any US adventurism that could endanger regional peace,” Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said Tuesday in a letter directed to the US and its allies, a week after Iran’s Navy deployed a cruise missile-armed warship in the region.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

UK Navy Alerted To Incident Near Djibouti As Houthis Paralyze Red Sea Shipping

December 19, 2023

UK Navy Alerted To Incident Near Djibouti As Houthis Paralyze Red Sea Shipping

International shipping in the Red Sea and vital Bab al-Mandab Strait is grinding to a halt with tankers, container ships, and other types of commercial vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid missile and drone attacks from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.

In a report that has become almost daily this week, Bloomberg states that the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations is monitoring a new potential incident involving a commercial vessel. This latest incident is said to have occurred around 80 nautical miles northeast of Djibouti.

On Monday, Houthi rebels attacked two commercial ships in the Red Sea. Full details of the attacks were not immediately known, but spurred a handful of major shipping companies to halt transit through the Red Sea.

At least seven major shipping companies, including Taiwanese container shipping line Evergreen, Belgian tanker owner Euronav, energy giant BP Plc, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and Mediterranean Shipping Company have paused all commercial vessel operations through the Red Sea that connects to Egypt’s Suez Canal.

Spillover risks of the Israel-Hamas war are quickly building, as the Red Sea is responsible for 10% to 12% of the world’s international trade. These mounting risks have forced London maritime insurers to demand war risk coverage for vessels that want to transit the Red Sea.

Red Sea is now largely closed to traffic. That’s 8.8 million bpd of daily oil transit, and nearly 380 million tons of daily cargo transit.

Global traffic now will be rerouted around Cape of Good Hope, adding 40% to voyage distance (and even more to cost) pic.twitter.com/Xct7x03tFI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 18, 2023

On Monday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin said the US and allies, including the UK, Canada, France, and others, are creating a new naval task force to protect critical maritime shipping lanes.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

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A world war in waiting: After Iran’s attack, it’s almost here

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