What Patient Zero, Japan, Can Tell Us About China & The Developed World At Large
To see the future, sometimes you have to look to the past. Japan is patient zero in the global epidemic of slowing growth and although Japan was assumed to be the emerging world power in the ’80’s, we now know better. The title of emergent power now rests with China…and for the same reasons it didn’t work out for Japan, it won’t work out for China. To make my case, I’ll use UN population data coupled with EIA total primary energy data (cumulative energy consumption from coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables), plus EIA fore-ward looking forecast data (the International Energy Outlook, 2017 or IEO’17).
First, Japan.
The Japanese 15 to 60 year old population peaked in 1993 and declined over 15% by 2018. The core population will continue falling, down 24% by 2030, and 34% by 2040. Energy consumption growth began stalling in 1997, consumption peaked in 2006, and has declined 17% from the ’06 peak through 2015. However, the EIA estimates the falls seen since ’06 will cease shortly and energy consumption will stabilize through 2040.
The chart below breaks down the annual change in the 15 to 60 year old Japanese population versus the annual change in energy consumption. The twin deceleration should be fairly obvious.
Below, the actual data as above versus the EIA IEO’17 forecast. While the core population will fall at an even faster rate, the EIA forecasts energy consumption will stabilize (against all logical rationale)?!?
To round out the picture, the Japanese 15 to 60 year old population versus 60+ year old population. All growth is currently in the 60+ population until it too is projected to peak in 2040 and begin declining.
What does this mean for China?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
