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The Music Just Stopped: Japan Banking Giant Norinchukin To Liquidate $63 Billion In Treasuries & European Bonds To Plug Massive Unrealized Losses

The Music Just Stopped: Japan Banking Giant Norinchukin To Liquidate $63 Billion In Treasuries & European Bonds To Plug Massive Unrealized Losses

Last October, when the wounds from the March 2023 bank failures – which surpassed the global financial crisis in total assets and which sparked the latest Fed intervention, setting the market’s nadir over the past 16 months – were still fresh, we made a non-consensus prediction: we said that since the Fed has once again backstopped the US financial system, “the next bank failure will be in Japan.

This prediction only got warmer two months later when, inexplicably, Japan’s Norinchukin bank, best known as Japan’s CLO whale, was quietly added to the list of counterparties for the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility, a/k/a the Fed’s foreign bank bailout slush fund.

But if that was the first, and still distant, sign that something was very wrong at one of Japan’s biggest banks (Norinchukin is Japan’s 5th largest bank with $840 billion in assets) today the proverbial canary stepped on a neutron bomb inside the Japanese coalmine, because according to Nikkei, Norinchukin Bank “will sell more than 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) of its holdings of U.S. and European government bonds during the year ending March 2025 as it aims to stem its losses from bets on low-yield foreign bonds, a main cause of its deteriorating balance sheet, and lower the risks associated with holding foreign government bonds.”

See, what’s happened in Japan is not that different from what is happening in the US, where as the FDIC keeps reminding us quarter after quarter, US banks are still sitting on over half a trillion dollars in unrealized losses, as a result of the huge jump in interest rates which has blown up the banks’ long-duration fixed income holdings, sending them trading far below par and forcing banks (and the Fed, see BTFP) to come up with creative ways of shoving these massive losses under the rug.

Source: FDIC

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Dominoes: After NYCB, Shares Of Japanese Bank Implode On Massive US CRE Writedown

Dominoes: After NYCB, Shares Of Japanese Bank Implode On Massive US CRE Writedown

Following a profit warning from New York Community Bancorp on Wednesday, partially attributed to turmoil in the commercial real estate sector, Japan’s Aozora Bank Ltd. slashed the value of some of its US office tower loans by more than 50%, according to Bloomberg.

New York Community Bancorp’s move to slash its dividend and bolster reserves led to a 38% plunge in its shares yesterday, also triggering the largest drop in the KBW Regional Banking Index since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last March.

Like rows of falling dominoes, Aozora Bank, the 16th largest in Japan by market value, recorded a 20% plunge in shares on Thursday after reporting a net loss of 28 billion yen ($191 million) for the fiscal year. This was in stark contrast to its earlier projection of a 24 billion yen profit.

Aozora wrote down the value of its non-performing office loans by 58%, including a 63% reduction in Chicago and between 51% and 59% in New York, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, and San Francisco – all of these cities are plagued with violent crime and controlled by radical Democrats.

US office loans totaled about 6.6%, or approximately $1.89 billion. It said 21 office loans worth $719 million were classified as non-performing. It increased its loan-loss reserve ratio on US offices to 18.8% from 9.1%.

Several months ago, we pointed out: “Next bank failure will be in Japan.”

“It’s a shock,” said Tomoichiro Kubota, a senior market analyst at Matsui Securities Co., adding, “The expectation was the worst was over and that the bank had set aside enough provisions.”

For lenders, this development is a major warning sign that a tsunami of office loan defaults could be on the horizon. Many landlords struggle to repay or finance existing loans in an environment with high-interest rates. Some are simply walking away from properties.

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Fukushima Daiichi adds Insult to Injury for the Pacific’s Coral Reefs.

Fukushima Daiichi adds Insult to Injury for the Pacific’s Coral Reefs.

As the El Niño builds to a terrifying crescendo, that won’t peak before April 2024, the Pacific’s Coral Reefs will become stressed, and a bleaching event will unfold as it did in the 2016 El Niño. What is our response? TEPCO and the Japanese government have decided to dump 1.3million tons of radioactive water into my beloved Pacific Ocean. After careful consideration the criminal cohort in Japan have decided to take the cheapest option and dump the radioactive sludge into the adjacent Pacific Ocean.

In the video below, I mentioned that Sea Surface Temperatures hit 38C off the coast of Florida. Here’s the evidence:
“Sea surface temperatures of more than 38C (100.4F) have been recorded off the coast of Florida – potentially setting a new world record.” Sea temperature off Florida reaches 38C- potentially a world record.

Almost every coral reef in the Northern Hemisphere is under stress.
Daily Global 5km Satellite Coral Bleaching Heat Stress Degree Heating Week

“A catastrophic die-off of emperor penguin chicks has been observed in the Antarctic, with up to 10,000 young birds estimated to have been killed.”

This is the consequences of the loss of Antarctic Sea ice in the winter.

What does everyone think will happen down there when the summer rolls around, holding hands with a strong El Nino? Climate change: Thousands of penguins die in Antarctic ice breakup

“This missing area is larger than the size of Greenland, or around ten times the size of the United Kingdom,” Dramatic images show why emperor penguins were hit with catastrophe

Not a chick survived in 4 out of 5 colonies. Not a single Emperor penguin chick survived spring in parts of the Antarctica.

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Japan Tried to Build a Hydrogen Society. It Backfired Spectacularly.

hydrogen molecule

Andriy Onufriyenko//Getty Images

  • Japan has long been a leader in hydrogen energy and fuel cell technology.
  • Companies like Toyota plan to build entire cities entirely powered by hydrogen.
  • new report from an environmental think-tank argues that Japan is investing in the wrong applications for hydrogen technology and the determine of its decarbonization efforts.

In the past couple decades, scientists and engineers have come up with lots of ways to rapidly decarbonize the planet—but some ideas are better than others.

Take, for instance, hydrogen. Thanks to the discovery of electrolysis, hydrogen’s been a known source of energy for centuries, but Japan became a frontrunner in that energy source in recent years because of its status as a resource-poor country. A steady supply of renewable energy isn’t just an important climate initiative, it’s a matter of national security.

However, Japan may have taken things a bit too far.

In 2017, the country became the first in the world to adopt a national hydrogen plan, and companies like Toyota have committed to constructing futuristic cities powered by the technology. In 2021 alone, Japan spent around $800 million on investments into hydrogen power and fuel cells.

But according to the Renewable Energy Institute (REI), a Japanese environmental think tank, this push to use hydrogen in every conceivable energy sector is actually doing more harm than good.

From the report:

“The 2017 Basic Hydrogen Strategy is misguided, both in terms of what hydrogen is used for and how it is produced. Moreover, it promotes the use of gray hydrogen, which does not contribute to emission reductions.”

Gray hydrogen is the most common form of hydrogen production, which uses the greenhouse gas methane.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Japan Is Perhaps the Most Important Risk in the World

Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is losing control of the bond market. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», believes this could trigger a shock to the global financial system. He also explains why he expects further surges in inflation and why gold should be part of your portfolio.

The news caught markets off guard: On December 20th, the Bank of Japan surprisingly extended the target range for the yield on ten-year government bonds to plus/minus 0.5%. A move that not a single economist had expected.

This week, the Bank of Japan could announce a major policy shift amid rising government bond yields and a strengthening yen. Although barely a month has passed since the BoJ’s last meeting, the bond market is already testing the new upper limit of the yield curve control regime.

«To us, Japanese interest rate policy resembles the Berlin Wall of the late Cold War era, a stale anachronism that must sooner or later fall,» says Jim Grant. For the editor of the iconic investment bulletin «Grants’ Interest Rate Observer,» recent developments in Japan pose an underestimated risk to global financial markets. Not least because virtually no one is talking about it.

In an in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, which has been slightly edited for clarity, Mr. Grant explains what it means for financial markets if the Bank of Japan is forced to scrap its yield curve control policy. But first, he says why he doesn’t believe inflation will end soon, why bonds may be at the start of a long bear market, and why he believes gold is the best choice as a store of value.

«If the past is prologue and if the great bond bull market is over, then on form, we are looking at what could be a very prolonged and perhaps gradual move higher in interest rates»: Jim Grant.

«If the past is prologue and if the great bond bull market is over, then on form, we are looking at what could be a very prolonged and perhaps gradual move higher in interest rates»: Jim Grant.

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Top Marine General In Japan Bluntly Describes US Is “Setting The Theatre” For Future War With China

Top Marine General In Japan Bluntly Describes US Is “Setting The Theatre” For Future War With China

The top Marine Corps General for Japan this week issued some very revealing statements in an interview focused on countering China in the Financial Times. Despite Chinese leadership insisting that the Taiwan and Ukraine situations are not comparable, this is precisely how Lieutenant General James Bierman presented the situation, even going so far as to admit the Pentagon is preparing a counter-China “theatre” by cultivating military ties with southeast Asian allies.

“The US and Japanese armed forces are rapidly integrating their command structure and scaling up combined operations as Washington and its Asian allies prepare for a possible conflict with China such as a war over Taiwan, according to the top Marine Corps general in Japan,” the FT report begins.

Now Lieutenant General James Bierman Jr. pictured in June 2018. Commanding general of 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force and Marine Forces Japan. Image: US Marine Corps/Stripes.

While it’s no secret that Tokyo has been more and more openly siding with the US stance on arming Taiwan over the past year, also abandoning its historic post-WWII neutrality by drastically ramping up defense spending, Gen. Bierman confirmed “exponential increases” over the past year in joint US-Japan operations.

The interview itself is explosive enough to provoke the ire of Beijing officials, given how explicit the theme of the ‘Ukraine-ification of Taiwan’ is throughout Bierman’s statements, especially given it’s coming from the commanding general of Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) and of Marine Forces Japan.

Speaking in an unusually open and detailed manner regarding ongoing preparations to defend Taiwan, the US general said the following:

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11 years later, fate of Fukushima reactor cleanup uncertain

Tanks storing treated radioactive water after it was used to cool the melted fuel are seen at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, run by Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (TEPCO), in Okuma town, northeastern Japan, Thursday, March 3, 2022. The government has announced plans to release the water after treatment and dilution to well below the legally releasable levels through a planned undersea tunnel at a site about 1 kilometer offshore.  (AP Photo/Hiro Komae)
Tanks storing treated radioactive water after it was used to cool the melted fuel are seen at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, run by Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (TEPCO), in Okuma town, northeastern Japan, Thursday, March 3, 2022. The government has announced plans to release the water after treatment and dilution to well below the legally releasable levels through a planned undersea tunnel at a site about 1 kilometer offshore. (AP Photo/Hiro Komae)

OKUMA, Japan (AP) — Eleven years after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was ravaged by a meltdown following a massive earthquake and tsunami, the plant now looks like a sprawling construction site. Most of the radioactive debris blasted by the hydrogen explosions has been cleared and the torn buildings have been fixed.

During a recent visit by journalists from The Associated Press to see firsthand the cleanup of one of the world’s worst nuclear meltdowns, helmeted men wore regular work clothes and surgical masks, instead of previously required hazmat coveralls and full-face masks, as they dug near a recently reinforced oceanside seawall.

Workers were preparing for the planned construction of an Olympic pool-sized shaft for use in a highly controversial plan set to begin in the spring of 2023 to gradually get rid of treated radioactive water — now exceeding 1.3 million tons stored in 1,000 tanks — so officials can make room for other facilities needed for the plant’s decommissioning.

Despite the progress, massive amounts of radioactive melted fuel remain inside of the reactors. There’s worry about the fuel because so much about its condition is still unknown, even to officials in charge of the cleanup.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Japan’s Economy Is Again Struggling

Japan’s Economy Is Again Struggling

Japan. the world’s third-largest economy is highly dependent on exports and the reality it is still struggling even after a great deal of America’s stimulus money leaked into buying imported goods speaks volumes. While it feels a bit like ancient history, Japan’s GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 28.8 percent in Q2 of 2020, the biggest decline on record. Even after bouncing back 21.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 12.7 percent in Q4 Japanese national accounts are still lagging behind mid-2019 levels. For all of 2020, spending by households with at least two people fell 5.3% due to the hit from the pandemic. It was down 6.5% for all households, the worst drop since comparable data became available in 2001.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/22583.jpeg

All in all, this means the country is still playing catch up, partly because Japan also experienced two additional quarters of negative growth in Q1 of 2020 and Q4 of 2019. Adding to the problem is Japan’s household spending fell for the first time in three months in December, in a sign consumer sentiment was weakening even before the government called a state of emergency to control a new wave of the coronavirus. Lower demand for services such as travel tours also weighed, as the pandemic forced the cancellation of domestic tourism promotions. Last year, spending on accommodations fell 43.7%, while overseas and domestic tour travel expenditure slumped 85.8% and 61.9%, respectively.Not only is Japan again struggling to stay out of recession, but it also faces a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing its currency. This means they will be paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on the promises they have made. Japan currently has a debt/GDP ratio of about  240% which is the highest in the industrialized world. With the government financing almost 40 percent of its annual budget through debt it becomes easy to draw comparisons between Greece and Japan.

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japan, bruce wilds, advancing time blog, exports, recession, currency debasement, debt,

Extreme ocean-effect snow buries parts of Japan beneath seven feet, with more coming

The nation was sandwiched in between record-breaking weather systems.

The American GFS model simulates heavy snow targeting Japan during the next week. (WeatherBell)

Barely two weeks after a prolific ocean-effect snowstorm dropped seven feet of snow and stranded thousands of motorists, the new year in Japan kicked off with another severe snowstorm. Up to another 85 inches fell through Saturday amid strong winds and record cold temperatures.

Photos emerged on social media of a landscape plastered in white as heavy snow covered the mountains of Japan. One shot captured a roughly five-foot block of snow balanced precariously on a phone booth, while another showed what appeared as a white blanket presumably cloaking trees, structures and vehicles.

The mind-boggling snowfall is linked to a pair of record-breaking weather systems that induced a prolonged period of westerly to northwesterly winds, the ideal wind fetch needed to yield the factory-like production and dumping of heavy snow.

Mountainous areas of Japan are bracing for yet another dump of heavy snow over the next five days.

The second extreme snowfall in two weeks’ time

Japanese news agency NHK reported that Okura Village in Yamagata Prefecture, a mountain community a little more than 200 miles north of Tokyo, had received 85 inches of snow by late Friday. The seven feet of snow matched what came down the week of Dec. 18 just to the south in the community of Fujiwara.

That snowstorm stranded more than a thousand motorists on the Kan-Etsu Expressway for more than 24 hours, with drivers forced to melt snow for drinking water during the overnight debacle.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Fukushima To Dump 1 Million Tons Of Radioactive Water Into Pacific

Tokyo Electric Power’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station is expected to release more than one million tonnes of treated radioactive water from the destroyed nuclear power plant into the ocean after the 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games, according to the Asian Nikkei Review.

More than one thousand storage tanks at the Fukushima Daiichi site are lining the property and store upwards of 1.23 million tonnes of treated radioactive water. In recent years, we’ve pointed out (see: here & here) how storage tank capacity has been running out and battles fume over the prospects of releasing the tainted water.

The water in question has had radioactive isotopes removed through a complex filtration process – except for tritium. Even with existing technology, tritium cannot be removed. In large quantities, the tritium-mixed water could pose severe risks for wildlife and humans. The expected release would occur after 2022.

The decision to end several years of debate over releasing the tritium-mixed water appears to be coming to an end. But, in 2019, South Korea raised concerns to the International Atomic Energy Agency about the planned release.

Earlier this year, a Japanese government panel contemplated multiple release strategies: the first was to dump the tritium-mixed water into the ocean; the second was to allow the water to evaporate. The decision appears to be a controlled release into the Pacific Ocean.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said Friday, without commenting directly on Fukushima’s planned release of treated radioactive water, that:

“We can’t postpone a decision on the plan to deal with the… processed water, to prevent delays in the decommission work of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant,” Kato said. 

Environmental activists have not been thrilled with the upcoming release. Fisherman, farmers, and ordinary citizens have voiced concerns that releasing the tainted water could trigger an “environmental shock” and damage the surrounding ecosystem.

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Japan Embraced Debt As a Way Out of Its Budget Crisis. It’s Not Working.

The sudden resignation of Japans Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has led to evaluations of his so-called Abenomics. Many have praised Abe’s aggressive monetary policy because the long shopping list of the Bank of Japan (government bonds, corporate bonds, ETFs and real estate investment trusts) has inflated stock and real estate prices (Shirai 2020Financial Times 2020). Concerns remain on the fiscal side since Abe’s consumption tax hikes from 5 percent to 8 percent in 2014 and to 10 percent in 2019 are widely seen as a failure (The Economist 2020). Indeed, Abe resolved Japan’s deep-seated fiscal problems only superficially.

Figure 1: Tax Revenues of Japan’s Central Government

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Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan.

The core of the problem is cheap money issued by the Bank of Japan, which had caused a stock and real estate bubble in the second half of the 1980s. While the bubble had inflated tax revenues, its bursting was followed by an unprecedented economic slump during which the corporate and income tax revenues collapsed from 43 trillion yen (approx. 390 billion dollars) in 1990 to 23 trillion yen (approx. 185 billion dollars) in 2012 (Figure 1), when Abe took office.

Figure 2: Social Security Expenditure and Local Allocation Tax as Share of Total Tax Revenues

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Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan. Central Government.

At the same time Japan’s aging population ballooned the government contributions to the public pension and health insurance system, from 12 trillion yen (approx. 110 billion dollars) in 1990 to 36 trillion yen (approx. 327 billion dollars) in 2019. In addition, the so-called local allocation tax grants of around 16 trillion yen per year (approx. 145 billion dollars) to the economically exhausted Japanese periphery continued to constitute a heavy burden for the central government. In the wake of the global financial crisis, both together had increased far beyond the central governments’ tax revenues (Figure 2).

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Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?

Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?

Tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, as the list of ideological, political and economic clashes continues to lengthen. And there is a transparent new reality: China seems in no mood to back down.

“The Indians are seeing 60,000 Chinese soldiers on their northern border,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo ominously warned on Friday.

He spelled out what he meant to commentator Larry O’Connor:

“The Chinese have now begun to amass huge forces against India in the north. … They absolutely need the United States to be their ally and partner in this fight.”

Pompeo had just returned from a Tokyo gathering of foreign ministers from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad,” the group of four democracies — U.S., Japan, Australia, India — whose purpose is to discuss major Indo-Pacific geostrategic issues.

Exactly what kind of “ally and partner” the U.S. is to be “in the fight” between India and China over disputed terrain in the Himalayan Mountains was left unexplained. We have no vital interest in where the Line of Control between the most populous nations on earth should lie that would justify U.S. military involvement with a world power like China.

And the idea that Japan, whose territorial quarrel with China is over the tiny Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, thousands of miles away, would take sides in a Himalayan India-China conflict also seems ludicrous.

Yet, tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, as the list of ideological, political and economic clashes continues to lengthen.

And there is a transparent new reality: China seems in no mood to back down.

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Japan’s QE On Verge Of Failure As Nobody Wants To Sell To The BOJ

Japan’s QE On Verge Of Failure As Nobody Wants To Sell To The BOJ

Over a decade since central bankers started a stealthy nationalization of capital markets by purchasing a wide range of securities from Trasuries, to MBS, to corporate bonds, to ETFs and single stocks, their actions are finally catching up to them, and in the process breaking the very markets central bankers have worked so hard to prop up. And nowhere is this more obvious than in Japan, where the shrinking universe of Japanese government bonds (as a reminder the BOJ now owns more than 100% of Japanese GDP in JGBs) is “causing havoc” in Japanese money markets as the Bank of Japan continues to buy while dealers refuse to sell.

The result is that rates in Japan’s repo market, which traditionally connects holders of bonds with investors looking to borrow them, jumped to a record Tuesday (although they since retreated on Wednesday) because as Bloomberg notes, “the introduction of cheaper, more regular dollar-swap auctions has generated huge demand from U.S. currency-starved dealers who are keeping their JGBs to put them down as collateral.”

So here is what the math looks like now that the Fed has launched enhanced swap lines with central banks such as the BOJ, allowing local entities to obtain dollar funding at much lower rates: in last week’s first round of the Fed’s revamped dollar-swap auctions, banks borrowed greenbacks for about 3-months at 0.37%, a massive discount to the near 2% it would cost them in the currency swap market. $32 billion was alloted in the first operation.

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Next Economic Downturn May Last Forever And A Day

Next Economic Downturn May Last Forever And A Day

Market Manipulation Has Created Big Problems

Based on how Japan has fared over the last several decades it is difficult to see the green shoots of a global economic spring forth as a result of lower interest rates. In fact, the next economic downturn will likely envelope the planet and may last forever and a day. This is because central bank intervention and manipulation often carries with it negative unintended consequences. People often forget how lucky Japan has been during its trying times to be located next to China. Because of China’s years of booming growth, Japan has been able to mitigate much of the pain that occurred when its economic bubble burst in 1992.

In the decades since, Japan’s stock market has never again come near the lofty peak it hit back then. During the years after Japan’s fall from grace, it was able to soften the impact of its economic problems by strengthening ties with rapidly growing China which needed help in developing its export-driven economy. Today many people feel the global economy is in a bubble eerily similar to the one experienced by Japan before its implosion. The question is not whether the market and economy are about to undergo a massive reset but when. Concern is also growing as to how deep, painful, and long the next downturn will last.

A huge factor in the world trudging forward following 2008 is the massive growth in the money supply and debt over the last several decades. This growth in debt and credit has exploded making the financial sector a far bigger part of our economy than it should be. The economy has become more about asset values than solid growth in production, this has added to inequality and this does not create a healthy environment for investors.

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“Tsunami-Like” Coronavirus Floods South Korea With New Cases; Europe Begins To Isolate Italy: Live Updates

“Tsunami-Like” Coronavirus Floods South Korea With New Cases; Europe Begins To Isolate Italy: Live Updates

Summary:

  • In a report that was 4 hours “late”, China reported an additional 409 coronavirus cases across the entire nation, and 150 additional deaths as of February 23 compared to 648 additional cases and 97 deaths on February 22; this brought total China cases to 77150 and total deaths 2592
    • China’s Hubei province said it has 398 New Coronavirus Cases As Of Feb 23 and 149 New Coronavirus Deaths.
  • South Korea raised its national threat level to “red alert” for the first time since the H1N1 swine flu outbreak in 2009. The total number of confirmed cases in the country reached 763, a jump of 161 overnight, and a 25-fold increase in the past week.
  • The Italian government said it has 152 confirmed cases, up from three in a matter of days. Three people have died. Authorities have locked down about a dozen small towns and canceled events across the north, including Venice’s Carnival.
  • Iran has confirmed eight deaths related to the coronavirus, the most outside of China, media reported Sunday. South Korea confirmed its seventh death.
  • 4 more cases confirmed in UK
  • 200 Israelis quarantined
  • Japan confirms more cases; Japanese Emperor expresses hope for Tokyo Games
  • Trump says US has everything ‘under control’ as he asks Congress for more money
  • EU’s Gentiloni says he has ‘full confidence’ In Italian health officials
  • Turkey, Pakistan close borders with Iran as confirmed cases soar
  • Global Times says virus may not have originated at Hunan seafood market
  • Axios reports shortages of 150 essential drugs likely.

* * *

Update (2200ET): In a release that was about 4 hours late, China’s Hubei province said it has 398 New Coronavirus Cases As Of Feb 23 and 149 New Coronavirus Deaths. Overall, China reported an additional 409 coronavirus cases across the entire nation, and 150 additional deaths as of February 23 vs. 648 additional cases and 97 deaths on February 22. This brings the total number of cases across China to 77,150, and total deaths to 2592.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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