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Federal Reserve IR Policy – Longer, Lower, and ZIRP Until Something (or Everything) Breaks
Federal Reserve IR Policy – Longer, Lower, and ZIRP Until Something (or Everything) Breaks The current interest rate cycle began in August of 2019 when the Fed cut rates from the previous cycle high of 2.4% to 2.1%. The Fed was then fighting the “repo-crisis” in which the Fed was incapable of setting interest rates…and […]
Minsky Melt-up Explained?!?
Minsky Melt-up Explained?!? America (and the world at large) are in the midst of an entirely predictable demographically driven crisis, between an economic/financial system requiring infinite growth and a very finite human/physical world (detailed HERE, or HERE). This mismatch will only become more acute for decades to come. As the growth of demand is decelerating, central banks […]
Food for Thought – US Population, Employment, Debt, NIRP, Monetization
Food for Thought – US Population, Employment, Debt, NIRP, Monetization In 2019, US population growth fell to +1.55m or +0.5%…this was due to a trifecta of declining births, lower immigration, and higher deaths than anticipated. However, as with everything “2020”, all three trends are only intensifying to blow away 2019. Births are falling faster and […]
Global Demographic Fact Vs. Central Bank Sorcery
Global Demographic Fact Vs. Central Bank Sorcery Summary The annual growth of the working-age population is the organic baseline for growth in national, regional, and global consumption. However, since World War II, interest rate policy has moved inversely of annual working-age population growth, to incent ever more debt as working-age population growth has decelerated to […]
“Not QE”, Monetization, & “Definitely Asset Inflation”
“Not QE”, Monetization, & “Definitely Asset Inflation” Chart below shows the Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries, a weekly change (black columns) and total holdings (red line) during QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, QE3, QT, and “Not QE”. Got it?!? This current “Not QE” explosion in QE is like some kind of old time vaudeville act (like […]
Putting Federal Debt In Perspective Against those Responsible In The Future
Putting Federal Debt In Perspective Against those Responsible In The Future Since 2007, US federal debt has risen 150% while annual US births (legal and otherwise) have fallen almost 14%. Said otherwise, over the dozen years since 2007, federal debt has increased by $13.8 trillion while 5.2 million fewer births have occurred over the same […]
Soaring Debt Vs. Shrinking Populations Of Young To Repay Or Service That Debt
Soaring Debt Vs. Shrinking Populations Of Young To Repay Or Service That Debt Summary Global debt is currently at $246.5 trillion and primarily in the Wealthier, Consumer Nations of the world. The population of young in Consumer Nations has fallen 12% or over 100 million Since Peaking in 1975. Debt on a per capita basis […]
Economic Doom Loop Well Underway
Economic Doom Loop Well Underway From 2007 through 2018, births in the US have declined by 470 thousand on an annual basis, or an 11% decline. The US fertility rate has likewise cracked lower, from 2.12 births to 1.72, an 18% decline (2.1 births over a females childbearing years is considered zero growth). This has resulted in 4.5 million fewer net births in the […]
Census Bureau, Treasury, EIA Detail American Insolvency
Census Bureau, Treasury, EIA Detail American Insolvency Since 2007, US births and net immigration have consistently and unexpectedly fallen sharply. Over the same span, US federal debt and unfunded liabilities have soared while federal tax receipts, as a percentage of the federal debt and unfunded liabilities, continue declining. Total US energy consumption also peaked in ’07 and continues […]
Depopulation and Monetization…Like Peas & Carrots
Depopulation and Monetization…Like Peas & Carrots In contemporary, post world war II times, the process of depopulation is the declining number of births pitted against significantly longer life spans of the existing population. Given this, depopulation starts from the declining quantity of young and slowly works its way up the population. So, as depopulation is […]
Economic Breakdown Starts In East Asia due to Collapsed Births & Childbearing Populations
Economic Breakdown Starts In East Asia due to Collapsed Births & Childbearing Populations The floor under the East Asia neighborhood (consisting of China, Japan, South / North Korea, Taiwan, & Mongolia) is about to fall away. These nations (combined) equal slightly more than 20% of the global population and consume 27% of total global energy. From […]
Monday Musings on Monetization and Markets (or Fundamentals Don’t Matter, Liquidity Does)
Monday Musings on Monetization and Markets (or Fundamentals Don’t Matter, Liquidity Does) Being I’m not an economist nor associated with any financial or investment institutions nor do I have anything for you (dear reader) to buy or sell, I have total freedom to say what I please and freedom to share what I see. In that spirit, I […]
2019 Considered…Macro Population Cycle & Business Cycle Turning Down Together?
2019 Considered…Macro Population Cycle & Business Cycle Turning Down Together? Well, 2019 is here and it’s time to consider what sort of growth is possible. Speaking from a macro’est viewpoint, it’s helpful to acknowledge that 90% of the wealth/ income/ savings and nearly 90% of global energy is consumed by the high and upper middle income nations of […]
Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize”
Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize” Last week, I highlighted that since ’00, when the Federal Reserve has ceased adding to its balance sheet or begun “normalizing” (via rolling off assets), equity markets have swooned (detailed HERE). A simple idea today…that the end of population growth (where it matters) has long been upon […]
A Debt Based System Can’t Succeed Without Population Growth
A Debt Based System Can’t Succeed Without Population Growth A simple idea today…that the end of population growth (where it matters) is upon us. Absent population growth among the nations that do nearly all the consuming, a debt based economic and financial system can’t ultimately succeed. That is, without growth, assets generally don’t appreciate and debt is generally […]
