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US Braces For Chinese Retaliation: Scrambles To Find Alternative Rare-Earth Suppliers
US Braces For Chinese Retaliation: Scrambles To Find Alternative Rare-Earth Suppliers With Beijing making louder noise by the day about using rare earth metals as a “nuclear” retaliation option in trade war with the US, Washington is not sitting on its thumbs waiting for the day China pulls the plug, and as Commerce Secretary Wilbur […]
Gold Makes Its Grievances Heard
Gold Makes Its Grievances Heard Gold is getting its revenge. Try as he might Mr. Tariff Man can’t dominate all the headlines all the time. Everyone once in a while something more important than the Trump Man-Baby Show should take center stage. Gold has moved more than $50 in just under three trading sessions, blowing past near […]
The Zeitgeist Knows
The Zeitgeist Knows Who said the global economy was a permanent installation in the human condition? The head cheerleader was The New York Times’s Tom Friedman, with his 1999 book, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, the trumpet blast for the new order of things. Since then, we partied like it was 1999, with a few grand mal […]
From Gold To Nothing: How 1971 Changed Everything In The Economy
From Gold To Nothing: How 1971 Changed Everything In The Economy The monetary system is a major component of the whole economic system. Despite that, today we take it for granted and don’t even ask ourselves how it works and if it is the best solution available or the correct way to manage things. Even though it appears […]
The Market’s Biggest Risk: A Stagflationary Shock
The Market’s Biggest Risk: A Stagflationary Shock Nearly three weeks ago, when Goldman calculated that the imminent impact of even more tariff hikes (back then Trump’s intention to slap Mexico with tariffs wasn’t known yet) would be to sharply boost inflation as imposing 25% tariffs on roughly $300bn of remaining Chinese imports would have a peak effect of […]
The Ugly End of Globalization
The Ugly End of Globalization Sometime in the fall of 2018 a lowly gofer at the New York Stock Exchange was sweating bullets. He’d made an honest mistake. One that could forever tag him a buffoon. After trading sideways for most of the spring, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on the move. When it […]
Not Winning: Collapse in Global Trade Escalates, Imports -2.7%, Exports -4.0%
Not Winning: Collapse in Global Trade Escalates, Imports -2.7%, Exports -4.0% Those who claim that Trump has already won or is sure to win the trade war need to ponder actual trade results. Exports rose 1.0% in March with imports up a reported 0.9%. That progress was taken away and then some in April. The Census […]
Italian Yields Jump As Salvini Threatens To Crash Government
Italian Yields Jump As Salvini Threatens To Crash Government Clearly emboldened by the EU Parliamentary results, where the League won a plurality of the vote in Italy, Matteo Salvini on Thursday sent BTP yields higher by threatening to crash the Italian government if the Five Star Movement doesn’t back his tax-cut plan. BTP yields have […]
What were Roman Taxes v Modern Taxes?
What were Roman Taxes v Modern Taxes? QUESTION: You do a lot of comparison to the Roman Empire. What was the size of the government relative to GDP? Can you estimate that? GY ANSWER: The Roman economy was more like the USA during the mid-19th century in that it was pre-industrial. About 80% of its inhabitants […]
US Threatens Europe With “Loss Of Access To US Financial System” Over SWIFT-Evading Iran SPV
US Threatens Europe With “Loss Of Access To US Financial System” Over SWIFT-Evading Iran SPV It’s going from bad to worse for Europe, whose currency had just hit session lows after Brussels confirmed that Italy faces a massive fine over its debt, when the Euro was hit with a double whammy after Bloomberg reported that the Trump […]
Rabobank: “The Biggest Explosions Are Still To Come”
Rabobank: “The Biggest Explosions Are Still To Come” Civil War, Infinity War, or Endgame? US consumers are feeling more confident according to yesterday’s data, and they also think things can only get better. Meanwhile, Europe is patting itself on the back over the far right not dominating in the EU elections, even if they did […]
Beijing Threatens Damaging Rare-Earth Export Ban As Trade Fight Intensifies
Beijing Threatens Damaging Rare-Earth Export Ban As Trade Fight Intensifies Once dismissed as a “nuclear option” that would only be invoked by Beijing as a last resort in the burgeoning trade war with the US, it’s looking increasingly likely that the Communist Party might impose an export ban on rare-earth metals, creating serious supply-chain issues for American […]
Forget “Money”: What Will Matter Are Water, Energy, Soil and Food–and a Shared National Purpose
Forget “Money”: What Will Matter Are Water, Energy, Soil and Food–and a Shared National Purpose If you want to identify tomorrow’s superpowers, overlay maps of fresh water, energy, grain/cereal surpluses and arable land. The status quo measures wealth with “money,” but “money” is not what’s valuable. “Money” (in quotes because the global economy operates on intrinsically […]
Financial Markets To Federal Reserve: Time To Start Cutting Rates
Financial Markets To Federal Reserve: Time To Start Cutting Rates In late 2018 the US stock market tanked, in effect holding a gun to its own head and threatening to pull the trigger unless the Fed stopped raising interest rates. The Fed, painfully aware that an equities bull market is an existential threat in today’s […]
“A Big Wake Up Call”: Chinese Bond Market Roiled By First Ever Bank Failure
“A Big Wake Up Call”: Chinese Bond Market Roiled By First Ever Bank Failure Late last Friday, we reported that several hours after the market close, China’s financial regulator and central bank made a shocking announcement: for the first time in nearly 30 year, China would take control of a bank, in this case the troubled inner […]
