Civil War, Infinity War, or Endgame?
US consumers are feeling more confident according to yesterday’s data, and they also think things can only get better.
Meanwhile, Europe is patting itself on the back over the far right not dominating in the EU elections, even if they did in the UK and Italy, with consequences yet to be seen. Nonetheless, things are going so well on an underlying basis–as the struggle over who will get all the top EU jobs begins–that the Iron German Chancellor Merkel has decided to knife her own named successor in the back and effectively un-retire for the foreseeable future. What confidence in the future that displays. (And in her political judgement in the original pick.) Meanwhile, over in Asia things are looking ugly. The leading indicator that is Korean exports continues to tumble, and now Bloomberg’s leading indicator suggests the Chinese economy will see a further marked deceleration in May data. Like bird-flu, and now ASF, or pig-flu, what starts in Asia doesn’t stay in Asia for long.
Markets seem to get that message – bonds are screaming that a recession is just around the corner – something our Fed watcher Philip Marey has been calling for the US for some time now. The US Treasury curve is now at its most inverted 3-month to 10-year since 2007, not a happy comparison, while the actual 10-year itself is at 2.25% at the time of writing. Recall we started May at over 2.55%, and in January were close to closing over 2.80%. Over in Germany the 10-year Bund is trading at -16bp, which should mean the ECB’s Draghi leaves red-faced – though of course he will walk out declaring “Mission accomplished.”
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