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Right or Wrong – The Dark Side of Human Nature

January 19, 2015

Right or Wrong – The Dark Side of Human Nature

I greatly appreciate the confidence saying I am never wrong. But on an individual level,NOBODY can possibly be right all the time. This is why I try to emphasize that the numbers are the numbers and that all we can do is watch how everything unfolds. I have no personal vision of the future and what I fear I would not say publicly anyway for that is just opinion. All I can do is say this is what has happened in the past and express what the computer says – not ME. The markets are the only infallible guide if you just listen.  Like the year-end closing for the Swiss. A closing above the 9700 level simply stated the 2011 low should hold. Had we closed below that, then new lows were possible. The number define the forecast – NOT my opinion. Most people forecast on what they “think” will happen. I do not play that game. My OPINION is no better than anyone else’s.

The key to analysis and trading is you must define where you are right and where you are wrong. The key here is long-term verses short-term. One thing I observed is that trying to predict the closing of whatever tomorrow will be infinitely much more difficult than predicting years in advance. The trend is in motion. Like the Swiss Peg, yes you can fight against the trend, but the trend will always win. So where the Dow closes tomorrow really means nothing to the long-term. That is just what we call noise. There are countless variables that will determine the closing of the Dow on a daily basis. But the trend determines the course of where you are headed. It is the difference between the daily weather and the 4 seasons.

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