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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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The Global Economy’s Wile E. Coyote Moment

The Global Economy’s Wile E. Coyote Moment Economies and markets may already be plunging off a cliff. Always behind. Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Our prediction last year of a global growth downturn was based on our 20-Country Long Leading Index, which, in 2016, foresaw the synchronized global growth upturn that the consensus only started to […]

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Finding the Root Cause of Recessions

Finding the Root Cause of Recessions Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. Beware of shocks. Photographer: Gary Hershorn/Getty Images The U.S. managed to avoid recession after the financial crisis, but Japan has succumbed to three contractions since 2009. Economic volatility is a key reason for this divergence, and that […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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