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President-Elect of Mexico’s Bombshell: Economy in “Situation of Bankruptcy”
President-Elect of Mexico’s Bombshell: Economy in “Situation of Bankruptcy” And why are Bank of Mexico executives and employees resigning in droves? Around 200 central bank employees, including 20 senior executives, have left their posts at the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) since presidential elections on July 1 handed a resounding victory to populist Andrés Manual Lopez […]
HELOCs in the US & Canada: As “Scarred” Americans Learned Bitter Lesson, Canadians Went Nuts
HELOCs in the US & Canada: As “Scarred” Americans Learned Bitter Lesson, Canadians Went Nuts Home-equity-loan balances in Canada per capita are now 3.3 times what they were in the US during HELOC peak before it all collapsed. Home Equity Lines of Credit – the infamous HELOCs Americans used as endless ATMs to draw equity […]
Mortgage Rates Head to 6%, 10-Year Yield to 4%, Yield Curve Fails to “Invert,” and Fed Keeps Hiking
Mortgage Rates Head to 6%, 10-Year Yield to 4%, Yield Curve Fails to “Invert,” and Fed Keeps Hiking Nightmare scenario for the markets? They just shrugged. But homebuyers haven’t done the math yet. There’s an interesting thing that just happened, which shows that the US Treasury 10-year yield is ready for the next leg up, […]
Who Bought the $1.47 Trillion of New US National Debt over the Past 12 Months?
Who Bought the $1.47 Trillion of New US National Debt over the Past 12 Months? China, Japan, other foreign investors, the Fed, US government funds? Nope. Foreign private-sector investors and “foreign official” investors – central banks, governments, etc. – whittled down their holdings of US Treasury Securities by $21 billion at the end of July, […]
Meanwhile in China, Implosion of Stock-Market Double-Bubble
Meanwhile in China, Implosion of Stock-Market Double-Bubble Bubbles don’t end well for those who don’t get out in time. US tariffs and threats of more tariffs have not been particularly well received in China, which is already being rattled by corporate credit problems, quakes in the shadow banking system, a peculiar Enron-type phenomenon at provincial […]
What Can Cause the Next Mortgage Crisis in the US?
What Can Cause the Next Mortgage Crisis in the US? The soothingly low mortgage delinquency rate is a deceptive indicator: the New York Fed weighs in. Mortgage delinquencies at all commercial banks in the US inched down to 3.14% in the second quarter, the lowest since Q2 2007, according to the Federal Reserve. But after […]
The Fed’s QE Unwind Hits $250 Billion
The Fed’s QE Unwind Hits $250 Billion Here’s my math when this “balance sheet normalization” will end. In August, the Federal Reserve was supposed to shed up to $24 billion in Treasury securities and up to $16 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), for a total of $40 billion, according to its QE-unwind plan – […]
These “Gradual” Rate Hikes Start to Add Up: US Treasury Yields up to Three Years Hit 10-Year Highs
These “Gradual” Rate Hikes Start to Add Up: US Treasury Yields up to Three Years Hit 10-Year Highs An entire generation working on Wall Street has never seen Treasury yields this high. The one-month treasury yield rose to 2.0% yesterday at the close and is at about the same level today, the highest since June […]
Housing Bubble Pops in Sydney & Melbourne, Australia
Housing Bubble Pops in Sydney & Melbourne, Australia And with impeccable timing, an immense flood of new construction. In Sydney, breeding ground for one of the world’s biggest housing bubbles, prices of single-family houses dropped 7.3% in August, compared to a year earlier. Prices of “units” — condos in US lingo — fell 2.2% year-over-year. […]
Mexico’s Central Bank Just Broke with the War on Cash
Mexico’s Central Bank Just Broke with the War on Cash Motivated by inflation? A strange thing just happened in Mexico. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico), announced that it is considering launching a 2,000 peso note (ca. $105), double the highest denomination note currently in circulation. It’s also considering doing away with Mexico’s lowest denomination 20 […]
No Other Banks Are This Exposed to Turkey, Argentina, Brazil…. Emerging Markets Haunt Spanish Banks
No Other Banks Are This Exposed to Turkey, Argentina, Brazil…. Emerging Markets Haunt Spanish Banks To diversify from the euro-debt-crisis, the biggest Spanish banks pushed deeply into Emerging Markets. Now, they’re in a new crisis. Almost exactly six years ago, the Spanish government requested a €100 billion bailout from the Troika (ECB, European Commission and […]
Fed Staff Delivers Intellectual Ammo for Hawkish Approach to Inflation
Fed Staff Delivers Intellectual Ammo for Hawkish Approach to Inflation “Because monetary policy acts with a lag, waiting for inflation to materialize before reacting is undesirable, particularly when economic conditions are such that outsized deviations of inflation from its target are a plausible outcome.” Let’s break the above quote apart and put it in perspective: […]
Subprime Begins to Haunt Credit Card Balances
Subprime Begins to Haunt Credit Card Balances Delinquencies soar past Financial-Crisis peak at the ca. 5,000 smaller US banks, and these are the Good Times. What’s going on? The delinquency rate on credit-card loan balances at commercial banks other than the largest 100 – so at the nearly 5,000 smaller banks in the US – […]
Toxic Mix in Canada: Spiking Inflation, Variable-Rate Mortgages, and a Housing Bubble
Toxic Mix in Canada: Spiking Inflation, Variable-Rate Mortgages, and a Housing Bubble What will the Bank of Canada do? The Bank of Canada has nudged up its target rate four times, starting July a year ago, from 0.5% to 1.5%. It last hiked on July 11. But now it is facing inflation that suddenly and […]
