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We’re Flying with Eyes Partially Closed into Turbulent Markets & Economy
We’re Flying with Eyes Partially Closed into Turbulent Markets & Economy But for the markets: “No Data is Good Data” “NOTICE: Due to a lapse in federal funding this website is not being updated,” it says in big lettering against a bright red background at the top of the data sites of the Department of […]
Stock-Market Margin Debt Plummets Most Since Q4 2008
Stock-Market Margin Debt Plummets Most Since Q4 2008 Wow, that was fast. Margin calls. During the ugly stock-market December, whose ugliness bottomed out on Christmas Eve, a nasty November, and the ugliest October anyone can remember, margin debt plunged by a combined $93.8 billion, the most since Q4 2008, after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. […]
Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction Reaches $402 Billion
Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction Reaches $402 Billion The QE unwind has started to rattle some nerves. For the past two months, the sound of wailing and gnashing of teeth about the Fed’s QE unwind has been deafening. The Fed started the QE unwind in October 2017. As I covered it on a monthly basis, my […]
US Dollar Status as Global Reserve Currency?
US Dollar Status as Global Reserve Currency? So, how hot is the Chinese Renminbi? And is the euro dead yet? The US dollar’s role as global reserve currency is defined by the amounts of US dollar-denominated assets – US Treasury securities, corporate bonds, etc. – that central banks other than the Fed are holding in […]
Nothing Goes to Hell in a Straight Line, Not Even Stocks
Nothing Goes to Hell in a Straight Line, Not Even Stocks But a whole generation of investors has never been through a Nasdaq-bubble unwind, and they’re shocked. I just dug out my “Dow 20,000” hat, but I might not need it for a while because nothing goes to hell in a straight line. And I […]
“Severe Collapse” of Home Prices Might Trigger a “Financial-Institution Crisis” in Australia: OECD Frets about the Bank
“Severe Collapse” of Home Prices Might Trigger a “Financial-Institution Crisis” in Australia: OECD Frets about the Bank “The authorities should prepare contingency plans.” The big four banks are too exposed to mortgages. Even if the banks don’t topple, the economy will get hit hard. In its latest report on Australia, the OECD focuses to a […]
The Fed Explains the Rate Hikes: To Prevent Financial Crisis 2
The Fed Explains the Rate Hikes: To Prevent Financial Crisis 2 Instead of “bubble” or “collapse,” it uses “valuation pressures” and “broad adjustment in prices.” Business debt, not consumer debt, is the bogeyman this time. Preventing another financial crisis – or “promoting financial stability,” as the Federal Reserve Board of Governors calls it – isn’t […]
Why I Think this Sell-Off is Just One Step in Methodical Unwind of Stock Prices
Why I Think this Sell-Off is Just One Step in Methodical Unwind of Stock Prices One after the other, individual stocks are getting crushed. It was an ugly Monday and Tuesday followed by a Wednesday that at first look like a real bounce but ended with the indices giving up their gains. This was followed, […]
Subprime Rises: Credit Card Delinquencies Blow Through Financial-Crisis Peak at the 4,705 Smaller US Banks
Subprime Rises: Credit Card Delinquencies Blow Through Financial-Crisis Peak at the 4,705 Smaller US Banks So what’s going on here? In the third quarter, the “delinquency rate” on credit-card loan balances at commercial banks other than the largest 100 banks – so the delinquency rate at the 4,705 smaller banks in the US – spiked […]
The Wolf Street Report
THE WOLF STREET REPORT Market Exuberance Ends, Pain Starts In the 14 months from the presidential election through January 2018, the Dow soared 49%. Housing prices soared too. The real economy followed. Consumers went on a spending spree. But now, this phenomenon — the surge in exuberance among consumers, investors, homebuyers, speculators, business-decision makers, and […]
WTF Just Happened with Natural Gas?
WTF Just Happened with Natural Gas? If you blinked, you missed it. The price of natural gas for December delivery plunged 19% on Thursday, the biggest percentage plunge since February 2003. This comes after futures prices had skyrocketed 20% on Wednesday to $4.931 per million Btu intraday, before settling at $4.837, the highest settlement price […]
How US Oil Booms & Busts Hit Industrial Production
How US Oil Booms & Busts Hit Industrial Production Fueled by cheap money and by dashed hopes of high oil prices. Industrial production in October rose 4.1% from a year ago, the Fed Board of Governors reported this morning. This was in the upper portion of the range since 2010. It was powered in part […]
Mortgage Rates May Hit 6% Sooner, as Fed Sheds Mortgage-Backed Securities, But What Will that Do to Housing Bubble 2?
Mortgage Rates May Hit 6% Sooner, as Fed Sheds Mortgage-Backed Securities, But What Will that Do to Housing Bubble 2? Mortgage rates are climbing faster than the 10-year Treasury yield. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) and a 20% down-payment rose to 5.17% for the latest […]
Anatomy of the Housing Downturn in Vancouver, Canada
Anatomy of the Housing Downturn in Vancouver, Canada It’s not pretty. In 2018, “each month has brought weaker than normal sales, rising inventory, and continued downward pressure on prices” in Vancouver, British Columbia, writes Steve Saretsky, a Vancouver Realtor and publisher of real-estate blog, Vancity Condo Guide. The market faces another headwind: “With the Bank […]
