Ready for more punishment: Investors load up on oil share offerings
The amount is in line with the pace of such equity offerings in 2015 even as the mood in the oil markets has grown more dour. In June of last year I wrote:
New investors in U.S. oil company shares must believe they are catching the bottom and will have a very profitable ride up from here. This demonstrates that OPEC’s work is not done and accounts in part for the decision to leave production quotas unchanged. OPEC’s next task is to convince those making new investments in oil that rather than catching a bottom in oil prices, they have caught a falling knife.
A lot of investors did end up catching a falling knife as oil careened downward from about $60 a barrel last summer to Friday’s close of about $36. Investors this year may still find that the knife is falling, though it admittedly doesn’t have as far to fall this time around. Still, it seems they misunderstand OPEC’s strategy or believe that that strategy will fail. As I said in the same piece:
The cartel must dampen enthusiasm for investment for the long term if the organization’s members are going to benefit. A crippled U.S. oil industry without friends in the investment world is the only way to assure that rising prices won’t simply lead to a stampede back into U.S. shale deposits.
It seems that the oil industry still has friends in the investment world and that OPEC’s work is therefore not yet done. The big question then is: Will OPEC stay the course or relent with a production cut this year to raise prices?
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