Just How Accurate Are The EIA’s Predictions?
The EIA STEO only gives monthly data for total liquids. All C+C data is quarterly and annually. The monthly projected data begins in February 2016. Projections for quarterly and annual data begins January 2016.
The EIA says Non-OPEC total liquids dropped .5 million barrels per day in December and another .36 mbd in January. But then, other than another short drop in the first quarter of 2017, they see things leveling out for the next two years.
For the total world, the EIA expects far better production numbers than just for Non-OPEC. They expect new highs to be reached in 2016 and again in 2017.
They see US total liquids dropping in 2016 then they begin a slow rise through 2017, but not overtaking the peak in 2015.
Apparently the EIA thinks Russia has had it. They see a drop in December 2016 then a huge drop in January 2017. I have no idea why. However the scale here makes the decline seem greater than it really is. From January 2015 to December 2017 the decline is only 400,000 barrels per day.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
