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Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXVI–Is it Too Late For Pessimism?
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXVI Knossos, Greece (1993), Photo by author Is it Too Late For Pessimism? Today’s ‘contemplation’ has been prompted by a question posed to me by a fellow commenter, puppyg, via an article we were both commenting upon. Taking advantage of a rainy day, I have prepared a rather extensive answer. Question: Tonight […]
Futurus Interruptus
Futurus Interruptus Most of the time, in writing these essays, I try to treat the decline of industrial society with the seriousness that it deserves. Sometimes, though, the plain raw absurdity of our current situation rises to a point that only raucous laughter can address. I ran into another of those points a few days […]
A Deep Dive Into the Future
A Deep Dive Into the Future Photo by Denny Müller on Unsplash Thinking more than a couple of days ahead is not one of humankind’s greatest strengths, especially not beyond the scale and scope of our immediate surroundings. In the rare occasion when thinking of this type does happen, however, it usually takes two directions: the future will […]
Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions
Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions Photo Credit: Getty Thanks go to Tony Heller, who first collected many of these news clips and posted them on RealClimateScience. SUMMARY Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today. None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates […]
My One Prediction for 2023
My One Prediction for 2023 The question that should be on our minds is: how are my household’s buffers holding up? Lists of predictions for the new year are reliably popular. Here’s 10 predictions, there’s 17 predictions, over here we have 23 and a half… let’s strip it all down to one prediction: everyone’s predictions will be […]
5 Reasons Not to Predict the End of the World
5 Reasons Not to Predict the End of the World “Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.” — Haruki Murakami So you want to talk about the end of the world without sounding like a crank? Rule #1 should be: Don’t predict when it will happen. A lot […]
Is the Future Already Written?
Is the Future Already Written? Image credit: Emile Guillemot Generally speaking the future is impossible to tell. The story of us could take many different paths branching into ever different versions of its current self. There are an infinite number futures, which we shape and select every day, every hour, every minute with our conscious decisions, […]
Is the Future Predetermined?
Is the Future Predetermined? QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; it is easy to see why the government wanted Socrates. You said Monday would be the low then a bounce and that is what unfolds. You forecast so many markets and you get it to the day. Others claim this is the guy who called 2008 so buy […]
Watching the End of the World
Watching the End of the World
Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future
Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future Preface. This is another “Scientists Warnings to Humanity” by many famous scientists, including Paul & Anne Erlich, John Harte, Peter Raven, and Mathis Wackernagel. Some of the challenges they point to are loss of biodiversity and consequent 6th mass extinction, human population growth which has led to […]
The Future is a Landscape
The Future is a Landscape I’ve been reflecting of late about the way that our habitual expectations about change blind us to the way that change actually happens. One of the most important of these is the frankly weird but pervasive notion that the future is a single place, where only one kind of thing […]
Four Scenarios for the Future (part one)
Four Scenarios for the Future (part one) Ten years ago, David Holmgren brought out a thesis he titled ‘future scenarios,’ wherein he laid out some reasoning for two main axes along which the next few decades could be characterized and developed four main scenarios which corresponded to the four general quadrants laid out by his axes of […]
Is All lost?
Is All lost? COMMENT: I think everyone is doomed. There is nothing to stop them. They have the media, they have courts, they have the academic institutions, they have the public brainwashed, they have the big corporations, they eliminated small business, they eliminated the first amendment, they have people believing all conservatives are evil. They have […]
The Most Outrageous 2020 Oil Predictions
The Most Outrageous 2020 Oil Predictions As we approach the close of 2020, we’re reminded of one statistical certainty when it comes to oil price predictions. If you set anything other than a range, you will be proven wrong. And even for the forecasters and predictors that do set a range, the likelihood that the […]
Why Are Mainstream Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong?
Why Are Mainstream Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong? Every end of the year, by the end of the year, we receive numerous estimates of global GDP growth and inflation for the following year. Historically, almost in all cases, expectations of inflation and growth are too optimistic in December for the following year. If we look […]
