Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future
Preface. This is another “Scientists Warnings to Humanity” by many famous scientists, including Paul & Anne Erlich, John Harte, Peter Raven, and Mathis Wackernagel.
Some of the challenges they point to are loss of biodiversity and consequent 6th mass extinction, human population growth which has led to ecological overshoot and overconsumption, climate change and consequent mass migrations. They conclude there will be mass extinction, declining health, and war over resources and many other grim consequences.
Unfortunately this important message is once again energy blind. It does mention that ecological overshoot is due to fossil fuels, but neglects to mention that peak oil happened in 2018 or 2008 and peak coal probably 2013, so they assume we will continue on our current population trajectory until the 22nd century! And they assume the worst about climate change as well by not acknowledging that there is a limit to fossil energy and since oil is naturally declining at 8.5% a year, offset by 4% enhanced oil recovery with little discovery of new oil the past 7 years, we may well have only half or less oil remaining by 2030. And a dieoff of billions of people, and 50% less CO2 emissions. Why peak fossils are ignored I can’t imagine, they are very aware of limits to growth.
In the end this is a shout out to their colleagues to be more honest:
“…only a realistic appreciation of the colossal challenges facing the international community might allow it to chart a less-ravaged future. While there have been more recent calls for the scientific community in particular to be more vocal about their warnings to humanity, these have been insufficiently foreboding to match the scale of the crisis…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
