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Food for Thought – US Population, Employment, Debt, NIRP, Monetization
Food for Thought – US Population, Employment, Debt, NIRP, Monetization In 2019, US population growth fell to +1.55m or +0.5%…this was due to a trifecta of declining births, lower immigration, and higher deaths than anticipated. However, as with everything “2020”, all three trends are only intensifying to blow away 2019. Births are falling faster and […]
Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years
Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years On the heels of miserable retail sales numbers comes the worst ever industrial production numbers. The Fed’s Industrial Production report provides another grim look at the Covid-19 wrecked economy. Total industrial production fell 11.2 percent in April for its largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index, as […]
How to Maintain a Bull Market After Coronavirus
HOW TO MAINTAIN A BULL MARKET AFTER CORONAVIRUS Everyone thinks they know the cause and effect of the Federal Reserve’s response to crises such as 2008 and 2020. The Fed prints money to buy assets. This increases the quantity of money. And this causes prices to rise. The Fed wants this, because it thinks that inflation eases the burden on […]
The Fed’s Visible Hand: Powell Buys $305 Million In ETFs In Two Days
The Fed’s Visible Hand: Powell Buys $305 Million In ETFs In Two Days On Tuesday, the US officially crossed over into some bizarro version of a crony, centrally-planned mandated pricing model that is anything but a market when the Fed started buying corporate bond ETFs for the first time ever. Then, moments ago in its […]
Panic Sets In: Fed Promotes More Free Money
Panic Sets In: Fed Promotes More Free Money Lawmakers need to do more says Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Free Money for 18 Months The Fed cannot directly give money away so that burden falls on Congress. Kashkari follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell in seeking Congressional Action. “They are going to need more. If this is […]
Negative Rates Are Not an Option
Negative Rates Are Not an Option Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s position on negative rates and gave his economic assessment as well. Economic Outlook “Highly Uncertain” In a live economic interview with PIIE, Jerome Powell discussed the Fed’s outlook for the economy and the advisability of negative interest rates. The video interview […]
How the COVID-19 Bailout Gave Wall Street a No-Lose Casino
How the COVID-19 Bailout Gave Wall Street a No-Lose Casino While ordinary Americans face record unemployment and loss, the COVID-19 bailout has saved the very rich This story appears in the June 2020 print edition of Rolling Stone. In late April Marko Kolanovic, a financial analyst for JPMorgan Chase, wrote to clients with good news. Pandemic […]
Stocks Tumble After Powell Says “Fed Not Looking At Negative Rates”
Stocks Tumble After Powell Says “Fed Not Looking At Negative Rates” Update (0935ET): The market is throwing a tantrum, demanding – it would appear – that The Fed move to negative rates as following Fed Chair Powell’s comments that NIRP “was not in The Fed’s toolbox.” How long will The Fed allow stocks to drop […]
GDP Now Q2 Estimate At -34.90 Percent, So What Now?
GDP Now Q2 Estimate At -34.90 Percent, So What Now? Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the worse year of the Great Depression, […]
Underneath the Surface Trouble Is Brewing Once Again
Underneath the Surface Trouble Is Brewing Once Again Larry McDonald, publisher of the investment research service The Bear Traps Report, warns that this crisis is far from over. He spots growing tensions in the credit markets and thinks that large public borrowers like Italy and New York State are in need of massive bailouts. Stocks […]
The State of the American Debt Slaves, Q1 2020
The State of the American Debt Slaves, Q1 2020 How are consumers positioned going into the crisis? Most of the first quarter was still the Good Times, but in later February and early March it hit the fan, as markets were crashing. In mid-March lockdowns started to roll across the country, and the layoffs by […]
Powell Needs To Immediately Address Negative Rates Or He Will Lose Control
Powell Needs To Immediately Address Negative Rates Or He Will Lose Control Today was a historic day, not for the latest algo-driven meltup in stocks, but because for the first time ever, fed fund futures priced in negative rates, first in January 2021 and shortly after, as recently as November 2020. In response to the […]
“It’s Devastating”: Kashakri Says Real Unemployment Rate Is As High As 24%
“It’s Devastating”: Kashakri Says Real Unemployment Rate Is As High As 24% Minneapolis Fed president, Neel Kashkari, said that Friday’s jobs report will likely understate the real unemployment picture as it will only reflect people who are “actively looking for work”, a nearly impossible task in a time of nationwide lockdowns, and that the country […]
They’re All High on Fed Fairy Dust
They’re All High on Fed Fairy Dust Everybody realizes the US economy is in a bad spot. But most people still seem to believe it will bounce right back once we deal with the coronavirus. They’re all high on Federal Reserve fairy dust. US GDP contracted by 4.8% in the first quarter. It was the […]
Fed Drastically Slashed Helicopter Money for Wall Street. QE Down 86% From Peak Week in March
Fed Drastically Slashed Helicopter Money for Wall Street. QE Down 86% From Peak Week in March Fed shed MBS. Loans to “SPVs” flat for fifth week. Repos in disuse. Fed still hasn’t bought junk bonds, stocks, or ETFs. But it sure sent Wall Street dreaming. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet rose by only $83 billion […]
