Home » Posts tagged 'goldcore'

Tag Archives: goldcore

I was fortunate to discuss the implications of the coming Energy Cliff with Dave at GoldCore TV last week. Due to Europe being the most dependent on natural gas imports, they have been hit the hardest. We can see this in the huge increase in the price of Dutch TTF natural gas and electricity in Europe.

While the U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price is still below $4, I see coming price spikes as shale gas production declines as domestic and global demand remains strong.

You can check out more GoldCore TV interviews here: GoldCore TV.

America’s “Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon”

March 25, 2019

America’s “Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon”

– America’s “debt crisis is coming soon” warns economist Martin Feldstein
– To avoid economic distress, the government has to reduce future entitlement spending
– The most dangerous domestic problem facing America’s federal government is the rapid growth of its budget deficit and national debt

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit this year will be $900 billion, more than 4% of gross domestic product. It will surpass $1 trillion in 2022.

The federal debt is now 78% of GDP. By 2028, it is projected to be nearly 100% of GDP and still rising.

All this will have very serious economic consequences, and the CBO understates the problem. It has to base its projections on current law—in this case, the levels of spending and the future tax rules and rates that appear in law today.

Source: USDebtClock.org

Those levels don’t match realistic predictions.

Current law projects that defense spending will decline as a share of GDP, from a very low 3.1% now to about 2.5% over the next 10 years. None of the military and civilian defense experts with whom I’ve spoken believe that will happen, given America’s global responsibilities and the need to modernize U.S. military equipment. It is likelier that defense spending will stay around 3% of GDP or even increase in the coming decade. And if the outlook for defense spending is increased, the Democratic House majority will insist that the non-defense discretionary spending should rise to match its trajectory.

If defense and other discretionary spending stays steady as a share of GDP, the annual deficit will increase by nearly 1% of GDP—from 4.2% of GDP now to about 5% of GDP 10 years from now. At the same time, the tax increases in current law that the CBO assumes will occur during the next decade as some of the recent cuts are phased out probably won’t happen. Congress will face strong political pressure to avoid a functional tax increase.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’

January 24, 2019

Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’

– David Attenborough warns Davos summit – ‘The Garden of Eden is no more’
– “If we wreck the natural world, we wreck ourselves” warns Attenborough
– If we destroy our environment, it will badly impact our economies and markets
– We must put the environment at the heart of our financial and monetary systems
– “Future proof” our economies, our currencies, our finances & our pensions with gold
– Hope for the best but be prepared and insure against the worst

The world faces some very serious ecological challenges due to the pollution, destruction and over consumption of our natural resources. Climate change is just one of the challenges facing us, but tends to be focused on almost exclusively alas – to the detriment of many other serious environmental risks.

There is much cognitive dissonance between the increasingly alarming warnings that we are damaging the world ‘beyond repair’ and the complete complacency of investors and market participants.

There is a complete failure to ‘join the dots’ between environmental challenges of today and how they may impact our economies, markets and indeed our investments and already vulnerable pensions.

The markets and our economies are completely dependent on our planet’s ecology. If the environment is destroyed so to will be our societies and economies and companies and governments as we know them today will also be impacted and many will disappear with obvious ramifications for the outlook for stock and bond markets.

The notion that our global economy and financial markets including frothy risk assets such as stock and bond markets would not be impacted by these serious environmental risks is irrational and complacent in the extreme. Our economies and markets are obviously dependent on our planet.

It seems increasingly likely that the severe environmental challenges of today will badly impact our economies and indeed financial markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes

January 21, 2019

Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes

– “Something wicked this way comes” warns John Mauldin
– Shaky China: Chinese landing could be harder than expected
– Brexit and EU Breakage: “I have long thought the EU will eventually fall apart”
– Helpless Europe: If Germany sneezes, their banks & the rest of continent catches cold
– We may see “yellow vests” spread globally: Economics is about to get interesting …

Source: TradingEconomics.com

For a couple of years now, the economic narrative has shown a comparatively strong US against weakness in Europe and some of Asia (NOT China). The US, we are told, will stay on top. I agree with that, as far as it goes… but I’m not convinced the “top” will be so great.

Americans like to think we are insulated from the world. We have big oceans on either side of us. Geopolitically, they serve as buffers. But economically they connect us to other important markets that are critical to many US businesses. Problems in those markets are ultimately problems for the US, too.

Last week I gave you my Year of Living Dangerously 2019 US forecast, but I didn’t discuss important events overseas. Summarizing last week quickly, I think the base case is that the United States economy slows down but avoids recession in 2019. That said, there are significant risks to that forecast, mostly to the downside.

Today we’ll make another literary metaphor to frame our discussion. “Something Wicked This Way Comes” is a 1962 Ray Bradbury novel about two boys and their horrifying encounter with a travelling circus. Later it was a movie.

In our case, something wicked most certainly is coming this way. Several somethings, in fact, approaching from all directions. The real question is how much damage this circus will do before it leaves town.

Shaky China

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC

January 10, 2019

Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC

Gold Outlook 2019 – World Gold Council

As we look ahead, we expect that the interplay between market risk and economic growth in 2019 will drive gold demand. And we explore three key trends that we expect will influence its price performance:

financial market instability
monetary policy and the US dollar
structural economic reforms.

Against this backdrop, we believe that gold has an increasingly relevant role to play in investors’ portfolios.

Gold Outperformed Most Assets In 2018

Why gold why now

Gold’s performance in the near term is heavily influenced by perceptions of risk, the direction of the dollar, and the impact of structural economic reforms. As it stands, we believe that these factors likely will continue to make gold attractive.

In the longer term, gold will be supported by the development of the middle class in emerging markets, its role as an asset of last resort, and the ever-expanding use of gold in technological applications.

In addition, central banks continue to buy gold to diversify their foreign reserves and counterbalance fiat currency risk, particularly as emerging market central banks tend to have high allocations of US treasuries. Central bank demand for gold in 2018 alone was the highest since 2015, as a wider set of countries added gold to their foreign reserves for diversification and safety.

More generally, there are four attributes that make gold a valuable strategic asset by providing investors:

a source of return
low correlation to major asset classes in both expansionary and recessionary periods
a mainstream asset that is as liquid as other financial securities
a history of improved portfolio risk-adjusted returns.

‘Outlook 2019: Global economic trends and their impact on gold’ – Full report from World Gold Council here

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Reserves Surge 1,000% In Hungary As It Joins Poland, Russia, China and Other Central Banks Buying Gold

October 20, 2018

Gold Reserves Surge 1,000% In Hungary As It Joins Poland, Russia, China and Other Central Banks Buying Gold

News, Commentary, Charts and Special Podcast on Direct Access Gold

Here is our Friday digest of the important news, commentary, charts and videos we were informed by this week including our special podcast on Direct Access Gold.

From our perspective, the most important developments were the IMF’s financial warnings and the escalation in central bank gold buying with Hungary increasing its gold reserves by a whopping 1,000% due to increasing “safety concerns.”

For the first time since 1986, Hungary’s central bank is buying gold bullion – a lot of gold bullion.

The Eastern-European country announced that it had boosted its gold reserves ten-fold, up to 31.5 tons. It not only dramatically increased its reserves but also repatriated the gold from the Bank of England to Budapest due to concerns about “financial stability”.

Central banks in Europe are diversifying into gold or moving to repatriate and take “possession in country.”

Hungary and Poland are the most recent central banks to do this but they follow in the footsteps of Austria, Netherlands and the powerful German Bundesbank all of which have been repatriating their gold from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in recent months and years.

Source: Bloomberg

“Gold is still considered to be one of the world’s safest assets,” in the words of the Hungarian central bank.

This view is shared by the President of the ECB Mario Draghi who in February 2013 spoke about how “gold is a reserve of safety” which “gives you a value-protection against fluctuations against the dollar.”

Central bank gold reserves remain very small versus the scale of their massive foreign exchange holdings and their significant exposure to the vulnerable dollar in particular but also the euro and other fiat reserve currencies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Issues Dire Warning – ‘Great Depression’ Ahead?

October 17, 2018

IMF Issues Dire Warning – ‘Great Depression’ Ahead?

– “Large challenges loom for the global economy to prevent a second Great Depression” warn IMF
– Massive government debts and eroded fiscal buffers since 2008 suggest global dominos await a single market crash
– 2008 crisis measures cast long, dark “terrifying” shadow

Is another “Great Depression” on the horizon?

It would be easier to dismiss these words from Nouriel Roubini, Marc Faber or other doom-and-gloom prognosticators. Coming from Christine Lagarde’s team, though, they take on a new dimension of scary.

The International Monetary Fund head isn’t known for breathlessness on the world stage. And yet the IMF sounded downright alarmist in its latest Global Financial Stability report, stating that “large challenges loom for the global economy to prevent a second Great Depression.”

Even some market bears were taken aback. “Why,” asks Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse Blog would the IMF use this phrase “in a report that they know the entire world will read?”

Perhaps because, unfortunately, the findings of other referees of global risks – including the Bank for International Settlements – hint at similar dislocations.

Ten years after the Lehman Brothers crisis, these worrisome warnings that will be explored in depth at this week’s annual IMF meeting in Bali. The tranquil setting, though, will offer few respites from cracks appearing in markets everywhere – from Italy to China to Southeast Asia, where currencies are cratering like it’s 1998 again.

Source: Wikipedia

Potential flashpoints and a long line of dominos

Italy is the current flashpoint – and the latest target of “domino effect” chatter in frothy world markets. China’s shadow-banking bubble, and the extreme opacity and regulations that enable it, also came in for criticism. And, of course, the 800-pound beast in any room where global investors gather these days: Donald Trump’s assault on world trade.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not All Forms Of Gold Ownership Are Equal

June 11, 2018

Not All Forms Of Gold Ownership Are Equal

Ultimately, the value of gold is based on its tangibility. So, why do so many investors assume they’re getting the same protection from investments like gold futures that they’re getting from physical gold: while gold futures and ETFs will fill most of the needs of owning gold in normal circumstances, in extraordinary circumstances, something that’s intangible like a futures contract just won’t do. Because how will you collect your gold from the custody bank when all the banks have failed?

This week, the Goldnomics podcast ranks the safest ways to own gold to the least safe. The safest is, of course, owning physical gold bars. The next safest is to own allocated and segregated gold, which is owning physical gold kept in a separate physical account. The next level of safety is unallocated gold, then there are physically backed-ETFs and non-physically backed ETFs.

Further out the safety spectrum is owning shares of gold miners, which trade like equities (because they are). However, the vast majority of investors own gold via an ETF.

While it’s an easily accessible way of owning gold, it’s not designed for physical deliverability. “The idea of having gold in a systemically linked instrument like that could be convenient in normal times but when things get out of hand, suddenly those contracts don’t bear any weight.”

Like Alan Greenspan said, Gold is trusted by everybody as a form of payment. And indeed, most gold investors own the precious metal for its tangibility. And reading the fine print of these ETFs, the fund manager is protected from ever having to be found liable for delivering its gold. Instead, the gold is stored with large custodian banks, and if there’s ever any serious systemic risk, the owner of the ETF won’t ever be made hole.

“Don’t think you’re checking that hedging box if you own gold through an ETF, or a digital gold provider.”

Listen to the rest of the podcast below:

Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold

April 16, 2018

Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold

– Global debt bubble hits new all time high – over $237 trillion
– Global debt increased 10% or $21 tn in 2017 to nearly a quarter quadrillion USD
– Increase in debt equivalent to United States’ ballooning national debt
– Global debt up $50 trillion in decade & over 327% of global GDP
– $750 trillion of bank derivatives means global debt over $1 quadrillion
– Gold will be ‘store of value’ in coming economic contraction
– Global debt is the mother of all bubbles

Source: Bloomberg

Global debt has now reached over 327% of global GDP, $237 trillion. Prior to the financial crisis it was less that $150 trillion. The amount by which it has surged in just one year is the same amount as the ballooning national debt of the United States.

The response of our leaders, central bankers and financial thinkers to this latest data?

It was good news as it showed that thanks to global growth the ratio of debt-to-gross domestic product fell for the fifth consecutive quarter. No irony in the fact that the economic growth is entirely funded by debt itself – adding another shaky layer to the house of cards.

Christine Lagarde said earlier this week:

The bottom line is that high debt burdens have left governments, companies, and households more vulnerable to a sudden tightening of financial conditions. This potential shift could prompt market corrections, debt sustainability concerns, and capital flow reversals in emerging markets.

A sudden tightening of financial conditions is inevitable. The latest FOMC minutes released yesterday showed that members plan to increase interest rates at a faster rate than previously expected. This was inevitable given the loose monetary policy that central banks have been enjoying for the last decade.

As Jim Rickards summarises:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Four Charts: Debt, Defaults and Bankruptcies To See Higher Gold

March 20, 2018

Four Charts: Debt, Defaults and Bankruptcies To See Higher Gold

20, March

– $8.8B Sprott Inc. sees higher gold on massive consumer debt, defaults & bankruptcies
– Rising and record U.S. debt load may cause financial stress, weaken dollar and see gold go higher
– Massive government and consumer debt eroding benefits of wage growth (see chart)

by Bloomberg

Rising U.S. interest rates, usually bad news for gold, are instead feeding signs of financial stress among debt-laden consumers and helping drive demand for the metal as a haven.

That’s the argument of Sprott Inc., a precious-metals-focused fund manager that oversees $8.8 billion in assets. The following four charts lay out the case for why gold could be poised to rise even as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy.

Gold futures have managed to hold on to gains this year, staying above $1,300 an ounce even as the Fed raised borrowing costs in December for a fifth time since 2015 and is expected to do so again next week.

The increases followed years of rates near zero that began in 2008. Low rates coupled with the Fed’s bond-buying spree contributed to the precious metal’s advance to a record in 2011. Higher rates typically hurt the appeal of gold because it doesn’t pay interest.

Paper Losses

The U.S. posted a $215 billion budget deficit in February, the biggest in six years, as revenue declined, Treasury Department data show. That’s boosting the government debt load, fueling forecasts for higher yields and raising the specter of paper losses for international investors who own $6.3 trillion of U.S. debt.

Slowing demand for Treasuries from overseas buyers is contributing to dollar weakness against the currency’s major peers, helping support gold prices, according to Trey Reik, a senior portfolio manager at Sprott’s U.S. unit.

Debt-Laden Shoppers

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which has been in decline for more than three decades, has risen over 40 basis points this year as the Fed raised rates and U.S. debt ballooned to more than $20 trillion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russian Central Bank Buys Gold – 600,000 Ounces Or 18.7 Tons In January As Venezuela Launches ‘Petro Gold’

February 22, 2018

Russian Central Bank Buys Gold – 600,000 Ounces Or 18.7 Tons In January As Venezuela Launches ‘Petro Gold’

– Russian central bank buys gold – large 600,000 ounces or 18.7 tons of gold in January
– Russia increased its holdings to 1,857 tons, topping the People’s Bank of China’s ‘reported’ 1,843 tons
– Russia surpasses China as 6th largest holder of gold reserves – after U.S., Germany, IMF, Italy and France
– Turkish central bank added 205 tons “over 13 consecutive months” – Commerzbank
– Meanwhile, Russian ally Venezuela is launching a new gold-backed cryptocurrency next week

Russia has overtaken China as the fifth-biggest sovereign holder of gold, allowing it to diversify its foreign currency holdings amid a deepening rift with the US, Bloomberg News’ Eddie van der Walt reported overnight.

The Bank of Russia increased its holdings in January by almost 20 metric tons to 1,857 tons, topping the People’s Bank of China’s reported 1,843 tons. While Russia has increased its holdings every month since March 2015, China last reported buying gold in October 2016. The U.S. is still the largest owner of gold, with 8,134 tons, much of it stored in Fort Knox.

Russia’s central bank continues to add gold to reserves while the People’s Bank of China remains on hold, pointed out Commerzbank.

Analysts cited news that the Russian central bank bought 600,000 ounces, or 18.7 tons, of gold in January as it continued to diversify its reserves. Analysts cite IMF data showing that Turkey also bought large quantities of gold in January at 560,000 ounces or 17.4 tons.

“Thus the Turkish central bank has topped up its gold reserves by a total of 205 tonnes over 13 consecutive months,” Commerzbank added.

Kazakhstan continues to buy gold in small quantities, as it has been doing steadily for years.

This goes some way to plugging the gap left by the Chinese central bank. The PBOC, meanwhile, has not reported the purchase of gold for 15 months in a row.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Debt Crisis II Cometh

February 15, 2018

Global Debt Crisis II Cometh

– Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns
– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn
– Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years
– US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014
– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years
– UK consumer debt hit £200b, highest level in 30 years, 25% of households behind on repayments

The ducks are beginning to line up for yet another global debt crisis. US mortgage rates are hinting at another crash, student debt crises loom in both the US and UK, consumer and corporate debt is at record levels and global debt to GDP ratio is higher than it was during the financial crisis.

When you look at the figures you realise there is an air of inevitability of what is around the corner. If the last week has taught us anything, it is that markets are unprepared for the fallout that is destined to come after a decade of easy monetary policies.

Global debt is more than three times the size of the global economy, the highest it has ever been. This is primarily made up of three groups: non financial corporates, governments and households. Each similarly indebted as one another. Debt is something that has sadly run the world for a very long time, often without problems. But when that debt becomes excessive it is unmanageable. The terms change and repayments can no longer be met.

This sends financial markets into a spiral. The house of cards is collapsing and suddenly it is revealed that life isn’t so hunky-day after all. Rates are set to rise and as they do they will spark more financial shocks, as we have seen this week.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Digital Gold Bitcoin Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars

January 18, 2018

Digital Gold Bitcoin Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars

‘Digital Gold’ Bitcoin Flight To Safe Haven Physical Gold

– Latest bitcoin, crypto crash causes gold coin and bar demand to surge
– Bitcoin down 40% from high, Ripple down 50% and Ethereum down 30%
– Ripple and ‘Digital gold’ Bitcoin fall past key psychological price levels
– $300bn wiped from cryptocurrency fortunes in just 36 hours
– New research says that there is ‘Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem’
– Savvy crypto buyers converted their short term gains into physical gold bars, coins
– Bitcoin and Ripple sellers bought gold both for delivery and storage from GoldCore
– Gold ETF holdings rise – Assets in iShares Gold soar to $10.7 b, highest in 5 years
– 95% of cryptocurrencies will go to zero …

30% to 50% price drops in a matter of days and the loss of $300 billion in value is quite a knock for a market that was not meant to be in a speculative bubble.

In just 36 hours the cryptocurrency market has managed to make a fair few people feel very nervous as they watched crypto currency prices fall very sharply.

The two most popular cryptocurrencies (as measured by market cap) saw the biggest losses over Tuesday and Wednesday, this week. Digital gold bitcoin dropped below it’s key psychological level of $10,000, whilst ether also made a drop below the all-important level of $1,000.

The crypto market has been on a tear for the last few months. We are frequently asked by people about bitcoin and whether or not they ‘should’ be getting into it.

Gold is the best way to secure value from crypto volatility

Unsurprisingly many cryptocurrency buyers or investors have been looking at how they can secure their gains. Since early December and continuing in recent days, we are seeing numerous existing and new clients who had seen massive gains in bitcoin, ripple etc diversifying into physical gold. They have been buying both gold coins and bars, for both delivery and storage.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold and Silver Bullion Are Only “Safe Investments Left” – Stockman

January 17, 2018

Gold and Silver Bullion Are Only “Safe Investments Left” – Stockman

Gold and Silver Bullion Are Only “Safe Investments Left” – Stockman

– Gold is the “ultimate and only real money” – Former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockman
– Trump tax cuts will lead to a ‘fiscal calamity of biblical proportions’
– China downgrades U.S. over political ‘deficiencies’
– Expect a ‘huge reset in the bond market’ and a ‘massive drop in household wealth’
– ‘People will flee the stock and bond markets in favour of gold and silver
– Time to buy (gold and silver bullion) is ideal
– “Only safe asset left is gold”

‘There is nowhere to go from here’ are the words that ring in your ears after listening to a recent interview on USA Watchdog with former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockman.

This might seem a depressing perspective to take but what Stockman is referring to is the fiscal and financial crisis that is on its way. The final straw of which is Trump’s massive tax cuts and the huge costs therein. It will contribute to a ‘thundering collision’ in the ‘bond market’ and the impending collapse of the third financial bubble in the last 17 years- arguably the largest bubble in world history.

For investors there is still somewhere to go, believes Stockman, and that is into gold and silver bullion:

‘If you have $10,000 to put in a safe place, put it into gold and silver not in the Wall St. stock and bond market,’ advises Stockman.

“Fiscal calamity of biblical proportions”

These quotes are taken from an interview Stockman gave at the end of December, on the very day the US Senate approved drastic changes to the US tax code.

Whilst Stockman has believed for some time that the gig is up when it comes to the current state of play, he expresses his concerns that the decision to implement major tax cuts will be the icing on the cake.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection

November 19, 2017

Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection

– Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection
– New ECB paper proposes ‘covered deposits’ should be replaced to allow for more flexibility
– Fear covered deposits may lead to a run on the banks
– Savers should be reminded that a bank’s word is never its bond and to reduce counterparty exposure
– Physical gold enable savers to stay out of banking system and reduce exposure to bail-ins

It is the ‘opinion of the European Central Bank’ that the deposit protection scheme is no longer necessary:

‘covered deposits and claims under investor compensation schemes should be replaced by limited discretionary exemptions to be granted by the competent authority in order to retain a degree of flexibility.’

To translate the legalese jargon of the ECB bureaucrats this could mean that the current €100,000 (£85,000) deposit level currently protected in the event of a bail-in may soon be no more.

But worry not fellow savers as the ECB is fully aware of the uproar this may cause so they have been kind enough to propose that:

“…during a transitional period, depositors should have access to an appropriate amount of their covered deposits to cover the cost of living within five working days of a request.”

So that’s a relief, you’ll only need to wait five days for some ‘competent authority’ to deem what is an ‘appropriate amount’ of your own money for you to have access to in order eat, pay bills and get to work.

The above has been taken from an ECB paper published on 8 November 2017 entitled ‘on revisions to the Union crisis management framework’.

It’s 58 pages long, the majority of which are proposed amendments to the Union crisis management framework and the current text of the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tag Archives: goldcore

Content

Post categories

Economic Links

Energy/Resource Links

Environmental Links

Geopolitical Links

Liberty Links

News Links

Other Links

Survival Skills

Post Archives by Category

Post navigation

Latest Posts