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November 4th, 2019… Back in the Real World…
November 4th, 2019… Back in the Real World… Trawling through the market headlines this morning, I’m struck by the number of comments about how much better the investment environment looks. There is less likelihood of a global recession, corporate earnings aren’t as bad as expected, and jobs are growing. I am unconvinced. I see worrying […]
The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits
The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. When that happens, policymakers will almost certainly pursue some form of central-bank-financed stimulus, regardless of whether the situation calls for it. NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom […]
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Insists There Won’t Be A Recession When All The Evidence Suggests Otherwise
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Insists There Won’t Be A Recession When All The Evidence Suggests Otherwise It’s happening again. Just like last time around, the head of the Federal Reserve is telling us that there won’t be a recession even though all of the evidence suggests otherwise. Just before the recession of 2008, Federal […]
Sluggish Oil Demand To Keep A Lid On Oil Prices Amid Global Recession Fears
Sluggish Oil Demand To Keep A Lid On Oil Prices Amid Global Recession Fears John Kemp, senior market analyst of commodities at Reuters, cites a new report via B.P.’s finance chief that indicates global oil consumption will be less than 1 million barrels per day this year, an ominous sign that the global economy is quickly deteriorating. […]
Trucking Recession: Heavy-Duty Truck Orders Collapse, Production Slashed, Cancellation Orders Soar
Trucking Recession: Heavy-Duty Truck Orders Collapse, Production Slashed, Cancellation Orders Soar New reports from the trucking industry show the transportation recession continues to gain momentum through the end of summer, likely to continue through 2019 into 1H20. The US trucking industry had a blockbuster year in 2018, as high demand for freight allowed transportation companies to expand […]
Powell “Not Forecasting a Recession”
Powell “Not Forecasting a Recession” In a speech today in Zurich Switzerland, Jerome Powell stated the Fed is not forecasting a recession. YouTube Video of Zurich Conference The Fed has never forecast a recession, even after they have started. It reminds me of Bernanke’s denials on the housing bubble. No Comment on Trade? 1st and […]
Uh Oh: U.S. Layoffs Rise 38 Percent – Highest Level For August Since 2009
Uh Oh: U.S. Layoffs Rise 38 Percent – Highest Level For August Since 2009 We continue to get more numbers that indicate that U.S. economic activity is really starting to slow down. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the number of layoffs in the United States was 38 percent higher in August than it was […]
28 Signs Of Economic Doom As The Pivotal Month Of September Begins
28 Signs Of Economic Doom As The Pivotal Month Of September Begins Since the end of the last recession, the outlook for the U.S. economy has never been as dire as it is right now. Everywhere you look, economic red flags are popping up, and the mainstream media is suddenly full of stories about “the […]
8-Reasons To Hold Some Extra Cash
8-Reasons To Hold Some Extra Cash Over the past few months, we have been writing a series of articles that highlight our concerns of increasing market risk. Here is a sampling of some of our more recent newsletters on the issue. Never Hurts To Ring The Cash Register Looking For A Sellable Rally Bull vs. […]
Peter Schiff: Gold Is Not Going to Stop This Time
Peter Schiff: Gold Is Not Going to Stop This Time Gold has continued to push upward. The latest catalyst was another escalation of the trade war. Gold briefly moved above $1,550 in dollar terms. But it has done even better in relation to other currencies. In fact, the yellow metal is at record highs in nearly […]
The Great Switch: The Geo-Politics of Looming Recession
The Great Switch: The Geo-Politics of Looming Recession Is the prospect of looming global recession merely an economic matter, to be discussed within the framework of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 – which is to say, whether or not, the Central Bankers have wasted their available tools to manage it? Or, is there a […]
The Anatomy of the Coming Recession
The Anatomy of the Coming Recession Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not […]
Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash
Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash The world is awash in debt. While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape. The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more. But regardless, everyone’s “real” […]
The Real Reasons Why The Media Is Suddenly Admitting To The Recession Threat
The Real Reasons Why The Media Is Suddenly Admitting To The Recession Threat One thing that is important to understand about the mainstream media is that they do tell the truth on occasion. However, the truths they admit to are almost always wrapped in lies or told to the public far too late to make […]
