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The US Economy’s Dirty Secret
The US Economy’s Dirty Secret Relatively strong US growth amid sluggishness elsewhere is not what economics textbooks would predict. But persistently low interest rates and weak inflation bring multiple benefits to American firms and consumers, while the adverse impact of the global slowdown on US exports should not be overstated. SAN DIEGO – There is […]
Should the Fed Tamper With the Quantity of Money?
SHOULD THE FED TAMPER WITH THE QUANTITY OF MONEY? Most economists are of the view that a growing economy requires a growing money stock, because economic growth gives rise to a greater demand for money, which must be accommodated. Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of […]
Weekly Commentary: The Ignore Them, Then Panic Dynamic
Weekly Commentary: The Ignore Them, Then Panic Dynamic After years of increasingly close cooperation and collaboration, the relationship has turned strained. Both sides are digging in their heels. Credibility is on the line. If one side doesn’t back down, things could really turn problematic. The Fed is asserting that it’s not about to lower the […]
Liquidity Stress Fractures Begin to Show in the Federal Reserve System
Liquidity Stress Fractures Begin to Show in the Federal Reserve System In my January Premium Post, “An Interesting Interest Conundrum,” I laid out how the Federal Reserve was losing control over the Fed funds rate — a loss of control over its bedrock interest rate that indicates financial stresses are building in the banking system […]
In The Fed We Trust – Part 1
In The Fed We Trust – Part 1 This article is the first part of a two-part article. Due to its length and importance, we split it to help readers’ better digest the information. The purpose of the article is to define money and currency and discuss their differences and risks. It is with this […]
Recession Already in Place, Watch Out – John Williams
Recession Already in Place, Watch Out – John Williams You might be wondering why the Trump Administration is calling for rate cuts and money printing with all the good news about the economy. Economist John Williams of ShadowStats.com knows why and contends, “We have a recession in place. It’s just a matter of playing out […]
Uncertain Future for Monetary Policy as POTUS Publicly Calls for Rate Cut While Fed Holds Steady
Photo by The White House Uncertain Future for Monetary Policy as POTUS Publicly Calls for Rate Cut While Fed Holds Steady On Tuesday, POTUS took to Twitter and called for the Fed to cut rates by 1%, pointing to 3.2% GDP growth and “wonderfully low inflation.” ✔ China is adding great stimulus to its economy while […]
The Company Store
The Company Store Leaves almost nothing to live on In the song Sixteen Tons by Merle Travis (and made famous by Tennessee Ernie Ford), the idea of the ‘company store’ referred to a system of debt bondage that effectively trapped workers within an unfair system designed to harvest all of their labor at very low cost. You […]
One Bank Asks “Is The Fed Losing Control Of The Interest Rate System”
One Bank Asks “Is The Fed Losing Control Of The Interest Rate System” Last Wednesday, before the Fed “unexpectedly” cut its IOER rate by 5bps o 2.35%, we warned that the “Fed Loses Control Of Rates” when pointing out the ongoing divergence of the effective fed funds rate from the Overnight Repo – IOER rate […]
The Fed’s Dangerous Inflation Game
The Fed’s Dangerous Inflation Game By now you’ve heard that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019. That was reported by the Commerce Department last Friday morning. That strong growth coming on top of 4.2% in Q2 2018 and 3.4% in Q3 2018 means that in […]
All That’s Missing Is a Black Swan
All That’s Missing Is a Black Swan “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the […]
The Fed Is the Bubble
The Fed Is the Bubble Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is often the best explanation. In this case: The Fed panicked in December and by caving to markets reignited the bubble in a major way and now they are losing control as they are trapped and twisted in their own narratives. No rate hikes until […]
Globally Synchronized…
Globally Synchronized… The economic sickness is predictably spreading. While unexpected in most of the world which still, somehow, depends on central banking forecasts, it really has been almost inevitable. From the very start, just the utterance of the word “decoupling” was the kiss of death. What that meant in the context of globally synchronized growth, […]
Brace Yourself: The Next Epic Collapse Could Be Weeks Away
Brace Yourself: The Next Epic Collapse Could Be Weeks Away There wasn’t a group of people more wrong about the 2008 financial crisis than those at the Federal Reserve. Mere months before the disaster hit in earnest, the nation’s highest economic and financial officials were vocal that there was nothing to worry about. Most memorable of these […]
“Everyone Is Thinking It’s The Shanghai Accord All Over Again”
“Everyone Is Thinking It’s The Shanghai Accord All Over Again” Back on January 9, when the S&P500 was just inches away from its Christmas Day bear market lows, we asked a simple question: is the Shanghai Accord 2.0 coming? Now, with the S&P back at all time highs, China unleashing a historic torrent of new credit after launching […]
