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How Will This Unwind? Amid Stimulus, Forbearance, Eviction Bans, Consumer Bankruptcies Dropped to Lowest in Decades. Commercial Chapter 11 Bankruptcies Highest in Years
How Will This Unwind? Amid Stimulus, Forbearance, Eviction Bans, Consumer Bankruptcies Dropped to Lowest in Decades. Commercial Chapter 11 Bankruptcies Highest in Years Weirdest Economy Ever, as 20 million people still claim unemployment benefits. Total bankruptcy filings by consumers and businesses in the US in 2020, across all chapters of bankruptcies, plunged by 30% from […]
Economic and Monetary Outlook For 2021
ECONOMIC AND MONETARY OUTLOOK FOR 2021 The most important event in the new year is likely to be the Fed losing control of its iron grip on markets. The dollar’s declining trend is already well established against other currencies and commodities, leading to this outcome. Events in 2021 will be the consequence of a developing […]
This is a Recipe for Hot Inflation in 2021
This is a Recipe for Hot Inflation in 2021 Get ready for a tsunami of liquidity to hit the financial system. President Trump has already signed a COVID-19 stimulus bill that will give $600 to most Americans. The House of Representatives has since passed a bill to increase the amount to $2,000. So that’s a […]
The Year Ahead: U.S. Faces Uncertain Economic Future
The Year Ahead: U.S. Faces Uncertain Economic Future You’re standing in the back yard, filling up a wading pool for the kids with a garden hose. If you turn the hose off, the pool stops filling. Allow enough time, and the sun evaporates the water. Over the course of the summer, the water slowly dries […]
Plus ça change: A French Lesson in Monetary Debauchery
Plus ça change: A French Lesson in Monetary Debauchery Fiscal policy shifted into turbo-charged, warp speed, overdrive early into the COVID related recession. To facilitate the borrowing binge, the Federal Reserve took unprecedented monetary actions. In 2020, the fiscal deficit (November 2019- October 2020) rose $3.1 trillion and was matched one for one with a […]
Inflation Expectations Solidly On The Rise
Inflation Expectations Solidly On The Rise Expectations Can Drive Inflation Inflation expectations appear to be solidly on the rise and that spells big problems for the financial system. For years the central banks across the world have claimed deflation has driven or allowed their QE policies to remain. This is central to their ability to […]
The Most Hopeful Scenario for 2021
The Most Hopeful Scenario for 2021 Choose wisely, America, or the options for a positive outcome will vanish like mist in Death Valley on a clear July afternoon. From the point of view of evolution, the most hopeful scenario for 2021 is the sudden and complete collapse of everything that is obsolete, inefficient, ineffective and […]
Fed’s New Paradigm Adds Helium to the Stock Bubble
Fed’s New Paradigm Adds Helium to the Stock Bubble Valuation are not only high, they are among the highest on record. The Laws of InvestingThe Wall Street Journal asks Has the Fed Rewritten the Laws of Investing? It has been an odd year with the Covid-19 crisis hammering the economy, but stocks recovering from sharp losses […]
The Fed Wrecked the World’s Most Important Market
The Fed Wrecked the World’s Most Important Market Do you wish to know where the economy is heading? The bond market holds the answer, say the veterans. The birds of the moment, the flighty birds, flock to the stock market. But the owls nest in the bond market. The owls are the wiseacres. The Federal Reserve’s […]
What Would Happen If the Fed Ceased to Exist?
What Would Happen If the Fed Ceased to Exist? Extremes get more extreme until risk breaks out; then the reversal will be as extreme as the bubble expansion. What would happen if the Federal Reserve ceased to exist? We all know the answer: global markets would instantly collapse and the global financial system, now entirely dependent […]
Update on the Fed’s QE
Update on the Fed’s QE No Wonder the Cry Babies on Wall Street are clamoring for more. Five SPVs, already on ice, will expire on December 31. The Fed released details today of its corporate-bond purchases in November ($215 minuscule millions) and corporate-bond ETF purchases in November (zilch). Last time it bought any ETFs had […]
Handout Economics: Bizarre New Game Played by Governors and Mayors Nationwide
Handout Economics: Bizarre New Game Played by Governors and Mayors Nationwide If you willingly chose to quit your paying job, spent all of your savings, then demanded that someone else foot the bill for your lifestyle… that wouldn’t make sense. Well, not to most people. But it sure seems like some states in the U.S. are doing […]
BREAKING NEWS: Shocking Increase In U.S. Money Supply In Past Two Weeks
BREAKING NEWS: Shocking Increase In U.S. Money Supply In Past Two Weeks The increase in the U.S. money supply in the past two weeks is absolutely shocking. Something must be seriously wrong behind the scenes at the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve for the M1 Money Supply to increase more in the past two weeks […]
For Stocks & Bonds, Upside Surprise of Inflation and Interest Rates “Could Prove Nasty”: Dudley
For Stocks & Bonds, Upside Surprise of Inflation and Interest Rates “Could Prove Nasty”: Dudley Five reasons to “worry about faster inflation.” It’s “a greater danger precisely because it’s no longer perceived as such.” “Given how completely financial markets have come to expect low inflation and interest rates, and how much support those expectations are […]
Weekly Commentary: Monetary Disorder In Extremis
Weekly Commentary: Monetary Disorder In Extremis November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecasts – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A few Bloomberg headlines captured the aura: “Stocks Gain as Jobs Miss Boosts Stimulus Bets;” […]
