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The Flooding Will Come “No Matter What”

The Flooding Will Come “No Matter What”

The complex, contradictory and heartbreaking process of American climate migration is underway.

This article is an excerpt from the book “On The Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America,” about climate migration in the U.S. For more, see abrahm.com.

Another great American migration is now underway, this time forced by the warming that is altering how and where people can live. For now, it’s just a trickle. But in the corners of the country’s most vulnerable landscapes — on the shores of its sinking bayous and on the eroding bluffs of its coastal defenses — populations are already in disarray.

A couple of miles west of downtown Slidell, Louisiana, and just upstream from the broad expanse of Lake Pontchartrain — the 40-by-24-mile-wide brackish estuary separating what is now the mainland from New Orleans — a five-room shotgun house sits on a plot of marshy lawn near the edge of Liberty Bayou. Colette Pichon Battle’s mother had been born in that house. Colette, bright-eyed and ambitious, devoutly Catholic, a force on the volleyball court, was raised in the house until the day she left for college. The family’s very identity had grown from the waters of the marsh around it. From a humble rectangle of wood, framed onto brick stanchions that kept it hovering several feet above the ground, shaded by the long beards of Spanish moss hanging from the limbs of towering oaks and a hardy pine, a family was born. Its Creole heritage near the acre of low-lying land goes deeper than the trees, deeper than the United States as a nation, to around 1770. Those roots withstood the tests of centuries: slavery, war and more than their share of storms.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Raging floods hit parts of Saudi Arabia

Raging floods hit parts of Saudi Arabia

Trees and debris were seen being swept away by the raging floods.

Flash floods have turned roads into rivers across parts of Saudi Arabia following torrential rainfall.

China evacuates over 100,000 as heavy rain continues to lash south

China evacuates over 100,000 as heavy rain continues to lash south

China is facing increasingly extreme weather events as climate change takes its toll.

China has evacuated more than 100,000 people as heavy rain continues to lash the southern province of Guangdong.

Authorities raised the highest level of alarm on Tuesday as the storms showed no sign of letting up. Flooding has already killed four people, with another 10 reported missing, in just the latest episode of extreme weather to hit China as climate change affects the country.

Torrential rains have been swelling rivers in Guangdong, prompting state media to warn of the risk of floods at a level “seen around once a century”.

INTERACTIVE_CHINA_RAIN_APRIL23_2024-1713870044
(Al Jazeera)

Footage from across Guangdong showed flooded villages, farmland and cities, along with collapsed bridges and floating vehicles. In addition to the 110,000 people who have been evacuated, at least 25,000 are in emergency shelters.

In the provincial capital, Guangzhou, authorities have registered cumulative rainfall of 609mm in April so far, which is already the highest monthly volume since record-keeping began in 1959.

The sustained torrent has hit the Pearl River Delta region, a manufacturing hub and one of the country’s most populated regions, for close to a week.

Home to some 127 million people, the region usually sees heavy rains in about September. It has been experiencing more intense and more frequent rainstorms and floods in recent years.

“Please quickly take precautions and stay away from dangerous areas such as low-lying areas prone to flooding,” authorities in the coastal city of Shenzhen – China’s third largest – said as the red alert was issued.

“Pay attention to heavy rains and resulting disasters such as water logging, flash floods, landslides, mudslides, and ground caving in,” they warned.

Flooding situation in Nairobi escalates to extreme levels, Kenya

Flooding situation in Nairobi escalates to extreme levels, Kenya

kenya flood april 2024

Kenya is facing a severe flood crisis with 38 confirmed deaths and more than 40 000 displaced due to continuous heavy rains since mid-March 2024. The floods have particularly devastated Nairobi and surrounding regions, prompting urgent national emergency responses.

Since mid-March 2024, Kenya has been grappling with intense rainfall that has caused widespread flooding across the country. As of April 24, the situation has worsened, with the death toll reaching 38.

The Kenya Red Cross now classifies the situation as moving from an emergency to a disaster level. This escalation is due to the increased intensity of the rains over the past few days, affecting multiple regions including the Coastal area, Central areas including Nairobi, the Western Highlands, Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Southeastern lowlands, and Northeastern regions.

In Nairobi, the situation has become particularly dire. The Nairobi River and the Athi River have both overflowed, significantly affecting the city’s infrastructure. Streets once bustling with activity are now waterlogged, disrupting daily life and mobility.

According to local authorities, 35 people in Nairobi have died due to the floods since the onset of the rains. City Senator Edwin Sifuna described the local government’s response as overwhelmed by the scale of the crisis.

“The situation in Nairobi has escalated to extreme levels. The County Government for all its efforts is clearly overwhelmed. We need all national emergency services mobilized to save lives,” Sifuna said on April 24.

YouTube video

The flooding has displaced over 40 000 people since March, with many forced to seek refuge in displacement camps.

The floods have submerged major highways, causing significant traffic disruptions throughout the country. Local media reports highlight the plight of residents in the Mathare slum, who have been forced to sleep on rooftops to escape the rising waters.

…click on the link above to read the rest of the article…

Pinning down climate change’s role in extreme weather

Pinning down climate change’s role in extreme weather and did climate change contribute to the flooding in Dubai?

In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, “Did climate change cause this?” In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, or any other disaster, because weather variability always plays a primary role in the genesis of the events.

However, climate change can make these events more intense and, given the non-linearities in the damages, this can vastly increase the damage and misery from extreme weather. So quantifying the role of climate change is therefore of great interest.

To do this, scientists turn to extreme event attribution studies. These rely on three separate lines of evidence. The first is the observational record: If you have good observations of the climate over a long enough period, the data set can be statistically analyzed to determine whether the event in question is becoming more frequent as the climate warms.

But correlation does not prove causality, so you need the second line of evidence: a physical understanding of why a particular extreme is getting worse as the climate warms. It should be obvious to readers of this substack why, in a warmer world, we expect to get more frequent heat waves. This physical understanding adds to our confidence that climate change is a factor in the occurrence of heat waves.

Finally, we look to computer simulations of the climate. The most common approach is to produce two different simulations of the climate: One simulation is of the real world, so it includes increasing greenhouse gases and a warming climate…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China issues highest-level rainstorm warning after fatal Guangdong floods

GUANGZHOU (Xinhua/Lu Hanxin)

China issues highest-level rainstorm warning after fatal Guangdong floods

More than 100,000 people have been evacuated due to heavy rain and fatal floods in southern China, with the government issuing its highest-level rainstorm warning for the affected area on Tuesday.

Torrential rains have lashed Guangdong province in recent days, swelling rivers and raising fears of severe flooding that state media said could be of the sort only “seen around once a century”.

The megacity of Shenzhen was among the areas experiencing “heavy to very heavy downpours” on Tuesday, the city’s meteorological observatory said, adding the risk of flash floods was “very high”.

It later downgraded its weather warning as the storms weakened, but urged residents to remain vigilant against disasters.

Images from Qingyuan — a city in northern Guangdong that is part of the low-lying Pearl River Delta — showed a building almost completely submerged in a flooded park next to a river.

Official media reported Sunday that more than 45,000 people had been evacuated from Qingyuan, which straddles the Bei River tributary.

State news agency Xinhua said 110,000 residents across Guangdong had been relocated since the downpours started over the weekend.

The floods have claimed the lives of four people, according to state media.

Engulfed lampposts

An AFP team in Qingyuan saw the Bei River running much higher than its usual level on Tuesday evening, with the water almost completely engulfing lampposts on a pedestrianised bank that had been closed to the public.

The rain stopped in the afternoon and the flood water fell slightly, allowing curious onlookers to come and look over the swollen banks.

Li Yan, 52, said he was more concerned about people living down the river than about the continued rainfall forecast for the next few days.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hundreds of thousands displaced by flooding in Burundi

People in Burundi are struggling to cope with flooding after months of heavy rains, with hundreds of thousands being displaced and many homes and schools damaged.

The relentless rain has resulted in the level of water in Lake Tanganyika rising considerably, causing chaos for communities living along its shores.

Lake Tanganyika’s rising waters have invaded the port of Bujumbura, Burundi’s economic capital, disrupting business there and elsewhere in the country

“The economic impacts are starting to weigh heavily. But why these floods? It must be said that they are associated with the climate changes that are affecting Burundi, like other countries in the region,” says Jean-Marie Sabushimike, a disaster management expert and professor of geography at Burundi University.

While climate change is the trigger, the impact of the flooding is exacerbated by poor land-use planning “that does not take into account areas at very high risk of flooding,” he said.

The United Nations estimates that, since September, over 200,000 people have been displaced by flooding as a consequence of the El Nino weather phenomenon.

Many people are living in difficult situations as the water has destroyed infrastructure, flooded fields, and impacted livelihoods.

“Since last year, the rain and the water levels have been rising here. Little by little, the land is getting waterlogged. Now, it has reached this level and we have never seen it this bad. It’s terrible,” says flood victim, Joachim Ntirampeba.

With forecasts predicting above normal rainfall until May, the government has appealed to the international community for financial assistance to deal with the impact of flooding.

“We are asking our development partners to combine efforts with the state of Burundi to help all people affected by these disasters,” said Interior Minister Martin Niteretse.

Flooding in Central Asia and southern Russia kills scores and forces tens of thousands to evacuate to higher ground

Flooding in Central Asia and southern Russia kills scores and forces tens of thousands to evacuate to higher ground

Unusually heavy seasonal rains have left a vast swath of southern Russia and Central Asia reeling from floods, with dozens of people dead in Afghanistan and Pakistan and tens of thousands forced to flee their homes in Kazakhstan and Russia.

Authorities say the flooding — the atypical intensity of which scientists blame on human-driven climate change — is likely to get worse, with more rain predicted and already swollen rivers bursting their banks.

Scores killed in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Lightning and heavy rains killed at least 36 people in Pakistan, mostly farmers, over three days, emergency response officials said Monday, as a state of emergency was declared in the southwest of the country. Most of the deaths were blamed on farmers being struck by lightning and torrential rain collapsing houses, The Associated Press quoted regional disaster management spokesperson Arfan Kathia as saying Monday. He noted that more rain was expected over the coming week.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address that he’d ordered authorities to rush aid to the affected regions, where swollen rivers and flash floods have also severely damaged roads.

PAKISTAN-WEATHER
Onlookers gaze towards municipal workers using heavy machinery to level the ground after damage due to floodwaters following heavy rains on the outskirts of Quetta on April 15, 2024.BANARAS KHAN/AFP/GETTY

In neighboring Afghanistan, the country’s Taliban rulers said Sunday that heavy flooding from seasonal rains had killed at least 33 people and left more than two dozen others injured over three days. Abdullah Janan Saiq, the spokesman for the government’s disaster management agency, said the flash floods hit the capital, Kabul, and several other provinces.

He said more than 600 homes were damaged or destroyed completely, with hundreds of acres of farmland destroyed and many farm animals killed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Did UAE’s Cloud-Seeding Operation Flood Dubai?  

Did UAE’s Cloud-Seeding Operation Flood Dubai?  

How it started with UAE’s cloud seeding operations:

How it’s going:

Not so well…

All inbound flights to Dubai International Airport were diverted on Tuesday evening.

“It’s certainly not just cloud seeding. The convective clouds that are associated with the sorts of stormy weather we’re facing form entirely naturally,” UAE news website What’s On said.

Perhaps the government playing God by fiddling with Mother Nature has unintended consequences…

The Flooding Will Come “No Matter What”

The Flooding Will Come “No Matter What”

The complex, contradictory and heartbreaking process of American climate migration is underway.

This article is an excerpt from the book “On The Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America,” about climate migration in the U.S. For more, see abrahm.com.

Another great American migration is now underway, this time forced by the warming that is altering how and where people can live. For now, it’s just a trickle. But in the corners of the country’s most vulnerable landscapes — on the shores of its sinking bayous and on the eroding bluffs of its coastal defenses — populations are already in disarray.

A couple of miles west of downtown Slidell, Louisiana, and just upstream from the broad expanse of Lake Pontchartrain — the 40-by-24-mile-wide brackish estuary separating what is now the mainland from New Orleans — a five-room shotgun house sits on a plot of marshy lawn near the edge of Liberty Bayou. Colette Pichon Battle’s mother had been born in that house. Colette, bright-eyed and ambitious, devoutly Catholic, a force on the volleyball court, was raised in the house until the day she left for college. The family’s very identity had grown from the waters of the marsh around it. From a humble rectangle of wood, framed onto brick stanchions that kept it hovering several feet above the ground, shaded by the long beards of Spanish moss hanging from the limbs of towering oaks and a hardy pine, a family was born. Its Creole heritage near the acre of low-lying land goes deeper than the trees, deeper than the United States as a nation, to around 1770. Those roots withstood the tests of centuries: slavery, war and more than their share of storms.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘Devastating to See’: Russia’s Orenburg Region Battles Historic Flood

‘Devastating to See’: Russia’s Orenburg Region Battles Historic Flood

Experts say the floods, which have caught the authorities off-guard and left many people to fend for themselves, are just a preview of what is yet to come in the climate crisis.

A view of a flood-hit area in the town of Orsk.Yegor Aleyev / TASS

ORENBURG REGION, Russia – Russia’s southern Orenburg region has been grappling with its worst flooding in decades, with 55 cities and towns fully or partially flooded and thousands evacuated in an unprecedented emergency.

Footage from the cities of Orsk and Orenburg showed entire neighborhoods submerged underwater, with volunteers and emergency workers on inflatable dinghies rescuing people and animals trapped in their homes.

Experts say the floods, which have caught the authorities off-guard and left many people to fend for themselves, are just the beginning of what is yet to come in the climate crisis.

“The scale of the flood is colossal. Many areas, many houses are underwater,” said Oleg, a resident of Orsk, the Ural Mountains city hardest hit by the disaster.

“We need to rebuild and keep rebuilding. I think it will take a lot of time, but [it will be possible] if the authorities help people,” he told The Moscow Times.

In Orenburg, the regional capital, the river embankment, several neighborhoods and a few settlements outside the city have been submerged since the end of last week.

Despite days of round-the-clock rescue efforts, there is still no end in sight to the crisis. Hydrologists expect the Ural River to rise even higher in Orenburg on Wednesday, and the Kremlin said that the neighboring Kurgan and Tyumen regions face “difficult days ahead.”

Russia on Sunday declared a federal state of emergency in the Orenburg region, a move that allows federal forces to get involved in efforts to combat the flooding.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Torrential Rains Trigger Flash Floods Across California

Torrential Rains Trigger Flash Floods Across California

Since the end of December, a ‘parade of cyclones’ has swamped California. The latest round of torrential rain has caused flooding in Los Angeles County, and still unclear in the early morning hours of Tuesday the extent of the destruction, though social media video on Monday evening shows flooded streets, overflowing streams and rivers, and mudslides in what is usually a dry, sunny place where residents have to worry about drought.

National Weather Service said 34 million people are under flood alerts across Southern and Central California through early Tuesday. In Los Angeles County, a flood warning is in effect through the evening.

Dramatic footage has surfaced on social media showing the widespread flooding.

Forecasters estimate the latest round of rain could bring upwards of 5-10 inches in some areas by the end of this week.

More stormy weather is forecasted for today. NWS said heavy precipitation is expected this morning and will begin to taper later in the day, warning a new and “energetic” low-pressure system was becoming more powerful offshore.

Officials said Los Angeles and San Diego residents faced an increased risk of flash flooding and mudslides. Tropical storm-strength winds were also forecast for San Luis Obispo County. Parts of Highway 101, which runs up and down the West Coast, were closed due to flooded-out sections of the major roadway.

Santa Barbara County told residents to shelter in place and closed public schools today. Officials told wealthy residents of Montecito, such as Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, to evacuate because of the flooding.

And it was just only six months ago ‘global warming’ alarmists and celebrities were complaining about droughts…

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced yesterday that storms had caused 14 deaths. He said that figure was higher than deaths caused by “wildfires in the past two years combined.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Pineapple Express’ And Bomb Cyclone To Wallop California

‘Pineapple Express’ And Bomb Cyclone To Wallop California

A moisture conveyor belt of atmospheric rivers has unleashed near-record rainfall across the West Coast. Another, perhaps, more powerful atmospheric river and bomb cyclone are set to target California on Wednesday and Thursday, continuing ten days of heavy rains and snow for higher altitudes.

The National Weather Service office in the Bay Area warned about the imminent storm, calling it a “truly … brutal system … that needs to be taken seriously.”

“To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while,” an NWS meteorologist in San Francisco, adding, “the impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce and the worst of all, likely loss of human life.”

The developing atmospheric river formed near Hawaii and, by Wednesday morning, will spread tropical moisture into California by a low-pressure system. This weather phenomenon is known as the “Pineapple Express.”

“Basically, an (atmospheric river) is a river in the sky of water vapor, and when it hits the mountains, (the moisture) is forced up over the mountains. 

 “That upward motion causes clouds and precipitation to form, and the faster the flow of air and water vapor is hitting the mountains, the faster the rain is falling, so you get more and more rain with the stronger ARs hitting the mountains,” Marty Ralph, Director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, told FOX Weather

The heaviest rainbands are forecasted over parts of California Wednesday afternoon and evening into Thursday morning. NWS has already posted flood alerts across the Golden State.

Another 2-3 inches could be expected across the San Francisco area. Even the Los Angeles metro area could see 1-3 inches.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Most productive NSW agricultural shire counts hundreds of millions of dollars in crop losses

aerial farm flooding shot
Crops on the verge of harvest have been wiped out.(Supplied: Rabbit Hop Films)

New South Wales’s peak farming body says the damage bill for wheat losses alone in the state’s flood-hit north-west will surpass $150 million.

Parts of Moree, Gunnedah, Dubbo and Moama have been evacuated as more than 140 flood warnings remain across the state.

Agronomists say the grain-growing hub of the north-west is expected to have “conservatively” lost more than 120,000 hectares of wheat that was nearly ready to harvest.

The region also boasts large barley and canola outputs and is in the summer planting window for crops such as cotton and sorghum.

The NSW Farmers Association is calling on the federal government to bolster flood support payments in Labor’s first budget in this term of government.

The lobby group’s Grains Committee chair, Justin Everitt said the dollar value of the wheat damage is on top of approximately $42 million farmers spent to grow the crop, in a year where input costs have been extraordinarily high.

He said crops are “now drowning beneath floodwater” and may be a “complete write-off” if paddocks don’t dry out soon.

“You spend all this money preparing your paddocks, sowing your crops, fertilising and spraying them, only to see them wiped out a couple weeks before harvest. It’s heartbreaking,” Mr Everitt said.

“Farmers know they’re taking a bit of a gamble when they’re planting a crop, but this ongoing wet weather with flood after flood after flood is just unbelievable.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Most productive NSW agricultural shire counts hundreds of millions of dollars in crop losses

aerial farm flooding shot
Crops on the verge of harvest have been wiped out.(Supplied: Rabbit Hop Films)

New South Wales’s peak farming body says the damage bill for wheat losses alone in the state’s flood-hit north-west will surpass $150 million.

Parts of Moree, Gunnedah, Dubbo and Moama have been evacuated as more than 140 flood warnings remain across the state.

Agronomists say the grain-growing hub of the north-west is expected to have “conservatively” lost more than 120,000 hectares of wheat that was nearly ready to harvest.

The region also boasts large barley and canola outputs and is in the summer planting window for crops such as cotton and sorghum.

The NSW Farmers Association is calling on the federal government to bolster flood support payments in Labor’s first budget in this term of government.

The lobby group’s Grains Committee chair, Justin Everitt said the dollar value of the wheat damage is on top of approximately $42 million farmers spent to grow the crop, in a year where input costs have been extraordinarily high.

He said crops are “now drowning beneath floodwater” and may be a “complete write-off” if paddocks don’t dry out soon.

“You spend all this money preparing your paddocks, sowing your crops, fertilising and spraying them, only to see them wiped out a couple weeks before harvest. It’s heartbreaking,” Mr Everitt said.

“Farmers know they’re taking a bit of a gamble when they’re planting a crop, but this ongoing wet weather with flood after flood after flood is just unbelievable.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

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