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The Cardinal Sin Of Investing: Permanent Impairment Of Capital
Victor Moussa/Shutterstock The Cardinal Sin Of Investing: Permanent Impairment Of Capital How to avoid making it Last week we presented a parade of indicators published by Grant Williams and Lance Roberts that warned of an approaching market correction as well as a coming economic recession. The key message was: When smart analysts independently find the same […]
Money Multiplier is Really About Credit Out of “Thin Air”
MONEY MULTIPLIER IS REALLY ABOUT CREDIT OUT OF “THIN AIR” According to traditional economics textbooks, the current monetary system amplifies the initial monetary injections of money. The popular story goes as follows: if the central bank injects $1 billion into the economy and banks have to hold 10% in reserve against their deposits the initial […]
America Can’t Afford to Rebuild
America Can’t Afford to Rebuild Adolphe Yvon Genius of America c1870A number of people have argued over the past few days that Hurricane Harvey will NOT boost the US housing market. As if any such argument would or should be required. Hurricane Irma will not provide any such boost either. News about the ‘resurrection’ of […]
The Trouble with Asset Bubbles: If You Stop Pumping, They Pop
The Trouble with Asset Bubbles: If You Stop Pumping, They Pop The idea that authorities can massage their pumping to keep asset bubbles inflated at a permanently high plateau is currently being tested. The trouble with inflating asset bubbles is that you have to keep inflating them or they pop. Unfortunately for the bubble-blowing central […]
BofA: Even The Bubbles Are Becoming More “Bubbly” Thanks To Central Banks
BofA: Even The Bubbles Are Becoming More “Bubbly” Thanks To Central Banks Back in June, Citi’s credit strategist Hans Lorenzen pointed out that while QE had failed to spark inflation across the broader economy, it had achieved something else: “the principal transmission channel to the real economy has been… lifting asset prices.” That however has […]
Did the Economy Just Stumble Off a Cliff?
Did the Economy Just Stumble Off a Cliff? The signs are everywhere for those willing to look: something has changed beneath the surface of complacent faith in permanent growth. This is more intuitive than quantitative, but my gut feeling is that the economy just stumbled off a cliff. Neither the cliff edge nor the fatal misstep […]
Don’t Forget About The Red Swan
Don’t Forget About The Red Swan [Urgent Note: The nation’s future and a massive debt ceiling hangs in the balance as Trump pushes beyond the Comey hearings. That’s why I’m on a mission to send my new book TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… and How to Bring It Back to every American who responds, absolutely […]
A Stock Market Crash Scenario
A Stock Market Crash Scenario The one thing we can know with certainty is it won’t be easy to profit from the crash. After 8+ years of phenomenal gains, it’s pretty obvious the global stock market rally is overdue for a credit-cycle downturn, and many research services of Wall Street heavyweights are sounding the alarm about […]
The Three Headed Debt Monster That’s Going to Ravage the Economy
The Three Headed Debt Monster That’s Going to Ravage the Economy Mass Infusions of New Credit “The bank is something more than men, I tell you. It’s the monster. Men made it, but they can’t control it.” – John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath Something strange and somewhat senseless happened this week. On Tuesday, the price […]
Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust
r.classen/Shutterstock Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust It’s just not possible to print our way to prosperity Let me begin with a caveat: confirmation bias is an ever-present risk for an analyst such as myself. If you’re not familiar with the term, ‘confirmation bias’ suggests that once we’ve invested time and emotional […]
Doomsday Device
Doomsday Device Disappearing Credit All across the banking world – from commercial loans to leases and real estate – credit is collapsing. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing for British newspaper The Telegraph: Credit strategists are increasingly disturbed by a sudden and rare contraction of U.S. bank lending, fearing a synchronized slowdown in the U.S. and China this year […]
Our Economies Run On Housing Bubbles
Our Economies Run On Housing Bubbles Rene Magritte Memory 1948We are witnessing the demise of the world’s two largest economic power blocks, the US and EU. Given deteriorating economic conditions on both sides of the Atlantic, which have been playing out for many years but were so far largely kept hidden from view by unprecedented […]
Eric Peters: “If China And The World Bank Are Right, We’re Headed For A Depression”
Eric Peters: “If China And The World Bank Are Right, We’re Headed For A Depression” “Some people blindly invested offshore and were in a rush to do so,” explained China’s central bank chief, justifying his recent capital controls. “Some of this outbound investment was not in line with our own policies and had no real […]
Contemplations for a Sunday (unless you can’t get around to it til Monday)
Contemplations for a Sunday (unless you can’t get around to it til Monday) Some simple themes today… Population growth, economic growth, and resultant energy consumption are inexorably slowing. The Federal Reserve knows it can not stop this and is simply slowing the inevitable with interest rate cuts to incent greater consumption via skyrocketing credit/debt (particularly government debt….debt that is undertaken with […]
UBS Calls It: “The Global Credit Impulse Suddenly Collapsed To Negative”
UBS Calls It: “The Global Credit Impulse Suddenly Collapsed To Negative” One month ago, a skeptical Deutsche Bank warned that just as global macro surprises and economic momentum had hit 6 year highs, the bullish story was set to rollover from its current elevated levels… … primarily as a result of a series of disappointing data points […]
