EIA Data Still Doesn’t Add Up
As initially pointed out by Peakoilbarrel.com in a recent article, discrepancies between actual data for oil production in Texas vs. what the EIA claims are so stark it’s almost scary. How this can be overlooked by the mainstream media as well as by most of the broker community is even more alarming. Further, how the U.S. oil industry fails to catch it and question it given that their livelihood is tied to it is even scarier.
Using the data plotted on the Texas RRC website, combined with the knowledge that Bakken production has been flat to declining, makes us wonder how in the world the EIA can not only restate monthly production higher recently, starting in March, but expect over a 700,000 barrels per day (B/D) overall increase for 2015.
Using the EIAs own data off their website on page 7 of their June monthly report, in Texas they expect a 2015 increase of 400,000 B/D (3592 vs. 3164 in table below) alone. Historical data through May shows production essentially flat from March to May (3609 vs. 3675) as well as in 1Q15 to 2Q15 (3602 vs. 3614).
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(Click Image To Enlarge)
Comparing these figures with Texas RRC figures off their website, the differences are startling. First, the chart below clearly shows the trend through 4/1/15 as being flat to down, as production nosedived in April by nearly 15 percent, compared with the previous month, and 15 percent from end of 2014.
Yes, these numbers bounce around but, plotting the monthly data below, the trend is clearly down, not up. So the first question is: what prompted the EIA to boost expectations recently, starting in March, when the data is clearly flat in the largest region of EIA growth expectations?
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