Summary
- Between a domestic real estate bubble bursting, the Evergrande debt crisis, electricity power outages, plus negative service and manufacturing PMIs in September, China’s economic slowdown has been very swift.
- The practice of defaulting on foreign debt and trying to restructure domestic debt is common in emerging market countries, so China has clearly failed to graduate to a reliable industrial economy due to its selective debt payments and brazen neglect of U.S. dollar-denominated debt.
- In the U.S., economic growth has also slowed dramatically. The Atlanta Fed is now estimating only 0.5% annual third-quarter GDP growth, down from its previous estimate of near-6% annual GDP growth.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that China’s GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, down from a 7.9% annual pace in the second quarter; but I am skeptical that China’s GDP managed to expand by even 4.9% last quarter, since the latest PMI data signaled a recession. Between a domestic real estate bubble bursting, the Evergrande (OTCPK:EGRNF) debt crisis, electricity power outages, plus negative service and manufacturing PMIs in September, China’s economic slowdown has been very swift.
I should add that Evergrande’s bonds denominated in Chinese yuan made some recent interest payments and $2.03 billion in U.S. dollar-denominated bonds finally paid $83.5 million in interest payments that were almost 30 days late, so Evergrande’s U.S. dollar-denominated bonds technically avoided a default.
Nonetheless, Evergrande is clearly taking care of its Chinese investors first, while postponing payments to international investors. This is not a surprise, since Evergrande is likely taking orders from the Chinese Communist Party authorities on how to restructure its assets and related debts. However, this action by Evergrande on payment of its tardy interest coupons will now likely hinder other Chinese companies that want to sell U.S. dollar-denominated debt. Overall, Evergrande still has over $300 billion in debt.
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