Exactly 11 years to the day since traders organized an emergency impromptu CDS unwind session ahead of Lehman’s shocking September 15, 2008 bankruptcy filing, major banks are preparing for similar chaos, only this time in the crude oil market in the aftermath of Saturday’s shocking drone attack on the most important oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia (and the world) which may result in a production shortfall of millions of bpd that stretches for days if not weeks, and lead to an explosion in oil prices (for those who are reading this early on Sunday afternoon, gas up your car now before gasoline prices surge on Monday).
First, we present the email that was just sent out by Saxo’s Christopher Dembik, indicating that when Brent reopens, it will surge as much as $5-10 in the Asian session:
Very short comment on what is happening in the oil market.
Following the events in Saudi Arabia, well-informed market participants expect that oil prices may increase by $5-10 per barrel in the Asian session.
Higher pressure on CNY, but also negative for TRY and INR due to elevated current account deficits.
Too early to assess the exact macro impact by it is bright clear we don’t need an oil shock…
The bottom line: oil may spike much more if the return to normal production takes longer than expected. Sure enough, that is the main point conveyed in an email that was just blasted out by Goldman sales (not research) to the bank’s top clients around the globe, with a message is simple: expect chaos when oil reopens… and sharply higher prices.
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