Last week, energy investors got the first of several reports that should confirm for Wall Street analysts that the physical markets for crude oil are responding to the sharp drop in oil prices. I believe supply/demand will work back to a balance during the second half of this year.
On January 16th the International Energy Agency (“IEA”) issued their monthlyOil Market Report (“OMR”) which stated, “A price recovery (for crude oil) – barring any major disruption – may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn.”
Highlights of the IEA report: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
The Paris based agency’s report caused a short-covering rally for NYMEX crude oil futures contracts on Friday and sent energy sector stocks higher. Some of our model portfolio companies closed up more than 10% on the day. Had it not been for the actions of the Swiss National Bank, which sent the U.S. dollar higher, I think the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would have pushed over $50.00/bbl.
There is still not much evidence of an increase in demand due to lower fuel prices, but I think that will happen a few months from now. It takes time for consumers to adjust their spending habits after Christmas. Outside of the United States the rest of the global economy is weak, which is restraining oil demand.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…