When it comes to inflation data, there are two parallel sources: the BLS, and ShadowStats’ John Williams, who continues to plough through the underlying “data” using pre-pre-pre-revision protocols, and every month reveals a parallel universe in which something shocking is revealed: the truth. Here is his take on the October “weaker but really stronger than expected” jobs numbers. Here is what really happened.
From ShadowStats
Never Recovered, the Economy Remains in Terrible Shape. The large number of opening headlines in today’s (November 9th) missive reflects various stories, ranging from twisted unemployment data, to an election dominated by underlying economic reality, and to headline 2014 financial results on the federal government’s operations that should raise some troubling questions in the markets. The general outlook is unchanged
Twisted Unemployment Numbers. Headline October 2014 unemployment reporting, in particular, was skewed heavily by warped seasonal-adjustment factors that do account properly for last year’s government shutdown. When the U.S. government closed in October 2013, the shutdown encompassed the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) base-period for determining the unemployment and employment detail in the household survey, as well as for determining employment in the payroll survey. The BLS was unable to determine fully the impact of the government shutdown on the monthly October labor data.
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