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Truth or CONsequences?

Truth or CONsequences?

When your government cons you daily with its statistical “facts,” it’s hard to keep your balance. Conned-sumers are feeling the cognitive disconnect from reality.

For years, I’ve been saying it appears the BLS (Bureau of Lying Statistics) publishes fake labor statistics. The numbers always look like the seasonal adjustments are used by each administration to try to make the numbers look better, which means we are operating our country on delusions, not on facts. Ultimately that cannot possibly be as good for the nation as seeing reality as it is and dealing with it together.

Never, however, have the numbers looked so blatantly fake as they have under the Biden administration, and I’ve been pushing that point for months now. Then along came a major mainstream publisher (CNBC) who finally said (first I’d ever heard from the mainstream financial press), “These numbers look rigged.” And now, at last, comes a US congresswoman who tells the head of the BLS she should lose her job if she cannot come up with real numbers, pointing out, as I have for some time now, that it seems a bit too convenient that the numbers always come out initially looking great for her Boss, #NoMoJo Biden, and then get revised down to a more dismal reality later in the year when practically no one is looking … and that this happens EVERY SINGLE MONTH and ALWAYS IN THE SAME DIRECTION!

The fluctuating statistics have finally caught the attention of lawmakers in Congress. Last week, Rep. Mary Miller, R-Ill., grilled Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su about her Biden-friendly reports.

“I pressed the Biden Administration on why their jobs numbers are consistently wrong and quietly revised downward after they are announced. What is going on at BLS?…”

— Rep. Mary Miller (@RepMaryMiller) May 3, 2024

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Proposal to Move Bank Regulation Goalposts Signals Underlying Problems in Financial System

If a formula spits out a number you don’t like, just change the formula so you get a better number!

That’s exactly what the Bureau of Labor Statistics did to the Consumer Price Index formula in the 1990s. Because the CPI kept indicating price inflation was too high, the BLS tweaked the formula to spit out a lower inflation number.

Now the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) is trying to talk the Federal Reserve into changing the formula for the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) to make bank balance sheets look better.

This proposal sends some alarming messages about the stability of the banking system and confidence in U.S. government debt.

What Is the SLR and Why Do They Want to Change It?

The SLR is calculated by dividing the bank’s tier 1 capital (capital held in a bank’s reserves and used to fund business activities for the bank’s clients) by all assets on the bank’s balance sheet, including U.S. Treasuries and deposits at Federal Reserve Banks.

Banks use the SLR to calculate the amount of equity capital they must hold relative to their total leverage exposure. Regulations imposed after the 2008 financial crisis require category I, II, and III banks to maintain an SLR of 3 percent. “Globally Systemically Important Banks” are required to keep an extra 2 percent SLR buffer.

During the pandemic, the Fed temporarily altered SLR requirements, allowing banks to exclude Treasuries and reserves from the formula’s denominator. This made it easier to maintain the required SLR ratio.

As a Federal Reserve note explained, the banking system “exhibited considerable strains” during the reign of COVID-19. As the pandemic unfolded and governments began shutting down economies, banks quickly liquidated risky assets and increased their cash holdings. This resulted in a “sharp increase in bank deposits.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Psychological Pain of Inflation

The Psychological Pain of Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tomorrow morning will report its Consumer Price data from October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) appears the following day.

There will likely be no real surprise here: inflation will still be running hot around 3.7 percent, confirming what I and many have suspected. Inflation is overall accelerating over the declines earlier this year. That’s bad economic news because it further confirms lower living standards and continues to vex average people juggling multiple jobs, high interest payments on debt, and increased unaffordability of just about everything.

 (Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)
(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

“Inflation has given us a few head fakes,” Fed chair Jerome Powell said at an International Monetary Conference over the weekend. He further swore that he would continue to use the power of the Fed to beat back this monster. But notice that he took no responsibility for inflation at all, despite the factual record showing that he enabled some $5 trillion in debt purchases from a spending-mad Congress, and soared the money stock in ways we’ve never seen.

This is the first time that I can recall the Fed chair having anthropomorphized inflation, as if it has a will of its own, has a head on its body, while using clever tricks to get around the defense front line, which of course is the Fed.

The line about “head fakes” pertains not to inanimate inflation but to the very human and oddly devious Fed itself. To understand Powell’s remark here fully requires a refresher lesson from Freud in what it means to project one’s failings on something else. It’s really childish—the young child blaming the monsters under the bed for the mess in his room—but it works due to the economic ignorance of the public.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

It Has Been 7% Inflation Since 1996

It Has Been 7% Inflation Since 1996

And so finally, now fiat $USD financial authorities are being forced to admit we have at a minimum 7% price inflation annualized.

The issue, as per usual, is the real value loss truth is like twice that amount in terms of real purchasing power disappearances over the last twelve months.

To attain shreds of credibility, even some in the mainstream financial media now have to report how rigged the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) inflation tracking methodology is.

Of course, yet another deflationary global bankruptcy phase is likely to come about this decade.

Look for perhaps some cyber-attack excuse to cover yet more derivative bet loss insolvencies to come.

And when it does, it will likely turn these increasing-price inflationary pressure downwards for a brief timeframe as it did during the 2008 GFC and briefly, and too at the start of the 2020 pandemic.

Yet our financial authority’s most predictable response mechanism will likely be more seemingly ∞fiat currency∞ creation.

Ultimately and also by major central banks’ pre-meditated ‘Go Direct‘ actions. Secular inflation should remain persistent, reaching levels already now larger than perhaps ever before experienced in most of our lifetimes until significant structural issues of too much record-level fiat currency-denominated debt and unsaved promise piles get reckoned.

Over 7% Inflation Since 1996

Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979

Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979

The inflation of today is a starkly different creature than what we faced in 1979. The world is massively different and presenting us with a strain of inflation that will most likely be stronger and more difficult to combat without major disruptions to our economy. This article is an attempt to highlight the differences and why today the position we find ourselves in is much more precarious.New data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed price inflation in November rose to the highest in forty years. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned the Federal Reserve is losing credibility by not tapering its balance sheet to rein in inflation. Appearing on CBS’ “Face the Nation” he stated the most significant miscalculation in decades is the Fed’s inability to characterize inflation correctly. It was only on November 30th that Fed Chair Jerome Powell finally retired the term “transitory” and opted to label inflation as persistent.

President Biden responded to rising inflation has been to call upon Congress to pass his Build Back Better plan. Biden claims this will lower how much families pay for health care, prescription drugs, child care, and more.” In reality, of course, the passage of BBB would increase inflationary pressure throughout the economy and only transfer these soaring costs from the individual to the government.

The idea the economy of 2021 is strong enough to allow a rapid and huge surge in interest rates such as those imposed upon America in 1981 is false. During America’s prior bout with inflation 40 years ago the economy was able to withstand the shock…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979

Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979

The inflation of today is a starkly different creature than what we faced in 1979. The world is massively different and presenting us with a strain of inflation that will most likely be stronger and more difficult to combat without major disruptions to our economy. This article is an attempt to highlight the differences and why today the position we find ourselves in is much more precarious.New data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed price inflation in November rose to the highest in forty years. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned the Federal Reserve is losing credibility by not tapering its balance sheet to rein in inflation. Appearing on CBS’ “Face the Nation” he stated the most significant miscalculation in decades is the Fed’s inability to characterize inflation correctly. It was only on November 30th that Fed Chair Jerome Powell finally retired the term “transitory” and opted to label inflation as persistent.

President Biden responded to rising inflation has been to call upon Congress to pass his Build Back Better plan. Biden claims this will lower how much families pay for health care, prescription drugs, child care, and more.” In reality, of course, the passage of BBB would increase inflationary pressure throughout the economy and only transfer these soaring costs from the individual to the government.

The idea the economy of 2021 is strong enough to allow a rapid and huge surge in interest rates such as those imposed upon America in 1981 is false. During America’s prior bout with inflation 40 years ago the economy was able to withstand the shock. Yes, we did have a recession, but it was short-lived because the foundation of our economy was much stronger. America was not bleeding from huge trade deficits and people had real jobs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

And Just Like That, Inflation Is About To Disappear?

And Just Like That, Inflation Is About To Disappear?

Earlier this year, when inflation was still “transitory” two Fed chairs, Powell and Bernanke, made comments which we joked only make sense if the definition of inflation is changed:

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Shrinkflation, Inflation’s Sneaky Cousin, Is on the Rise

Shrinkflation, Inflation’s Sneaky Cousin, Is on the Rise

Doritos

Inflation has been on the rise for the past year and in the last few months it has accelerated. In June 2021, inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), hit the highest level since 2008. By inflation, economists refer to the increase in the general level of prices, which means that prices on average are increasing. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) has a basket of goods and services that it tracks and uses to create a measure of the CPI. While inflation is the topic of the day in the news media and everyday conversations, many have not heard about its sneaky cousin, shrinkflation.

The term shrinkflation, is credited to British economist Pippa Malmgren, and refers to the shrinking weight of the products while the price for the package remains the same. This is in effect another form of inflation, since the per unit price of goods increases when products shrink. However, shrinkflation is trickier, since most consumers do not notice it (see here for a few examples of shrinkflation). Shrinkflation is an ongoing process, but we are seeing more of it in the past year, and especially the first half of 2021, as businesses scramble to catch up with increasing costs of production. Shrinkflation is so widespread today that there is a dedicated Reddit page for it.

Many complain about businesses resorting to shrinkflation and regard it as a sneaky way to increase prices. Yet many of the critics do not realize that businesses have no choice but to increase prices. Anyone who is paying attention to prices in the first half of 2021 will know that it is not only the price of consumer goods that it is increasing but also the prices of producer goods

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The CPI Revisited And Its Failure To Reflect True Inflation

The CPI Revisited And Its Failure To Reflect True Inflation

The cost of living numbers prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are highly misleading. Currently, the government understates inflation by using a formula based on the concept of a “constant level of satisfaction” that evolved during the first half of the 20th century in academia. This extended into the BLS re-weightings sales outlets such as discount or mass merchandisers with Main Street shops. Those promoting this change claimed it was simply another way to measure inflation and it still reflected the true cost of living.  

 
The fact is, politicians and those behind this system created it as a way to reduce the cost of living adjustments for government payments to Social Security recipients, etc. By moving to a substitution-based index and weakening other constant-standard-of-living ties those reporting inflation have muddied the water as to just how much we are being impacted by inflation. The general argument used to promote this change was that changing relative costs of goods results in consumers substituting less-expensive goods for more expensive goods.
Allowing for a substitution of goods within the formerly “fixed-basket” supposedly allows the consumer flexibility in obtaining a “constant level of satisfaction.” This adjustment to the inflation measure was touted as more appropriate for the GDP concept in measuring shifting demand and weighting actual consumption. Other tricks were also used to give the illusion of less inflation. In cases where the quality of the product are deemed by the government to be “improved” prices in the CPI, calculations are now adjusted lower to offset the higher quality. Extending this idea the Baskin Commission Report, December 4, 1996, actually used steak and chicken for its substitution example.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

No One Gets Out Of Here Alive

NO ONE GETS OUT OF HERE ALIVE

“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.”  – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

As we wander through the fog of history in the making, unsure who is lying and who is telling the truth, seemingly blind to what comes next, I look to previous Fourth Turnings for a map of what might materialize during the 2nd half of this current Fourth Turning. After a tumultuous, harrowing inception to this Crisis in 2008/2009, we have been told all is well and are in the midst of an eleven-year economic expansion, with the stock market hitting all-time highs.

History seemed to stop and we’ve been treading water for over a decade. Outwardly, the establishment has convinced the masses, through propaganda and money printing, the world has returned to normal and the future is bright. I haven’t bought into this provable falsehood. Looking back to the Great Depression, we can get some perspective on our current position historically.

The Dow is up 450% since its 2009 low, which is the metric used by the establishment to prove their money printing solutions have succeeded in lifting the country from the depths of despair and depression.

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THE TRUCKING “BLOODBATH” CONTINUES AS 4,500 TRUCKERS LOSE THEIR JOBS

THE TRUCKING “BLOODBATH” CONTINUES AS 4,500 TRUCKERS LOSE THEIR JOBS

The federal government’s jobs report has confirmed that truckers are losing their jobs by the thousands. According to preliminary payroll numbers reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week, around 4,500 trucking jobs were eliminated in the month of August alone.

The worst part is that we can expect that number to get worse in the coming months. According to Business Insider, this is the first time the agency reported a slash in trucking payrolls since March, when 1,200 truckers lost their jobs. That’s also the biggest drop since April of 2018 when approximately 5,500 trucking jobs were lost.

Indicators from the trucking industry have been sour in 2019. In the first half of the year, around 640 trucking companies went bankrupt, according to industry data from Broughton Capital LLC. That’s more than triple the number of bankruptcies from the same period last year — about 175. –Business Insider

One trucking company’s profits plunged recently adding more fuel to the recession fires.  USA Truck reported $2.5 million in net income in the second quarter of 2018. In Q2 2019, it reported $1,000 in profit, according to a separate report from Business Insider. The trucking industry is indeed going through a “bloodbath.”


Not a number you see very much in quarterly earnings: USA Truck’s 2q profit fell to … $1,000.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2019/jul/26/freight-carrier-s-net-falls-to-1-000-20/#.XT2j3bcyRE8.twitter …Arkansas-based freight carrier’s profit plummets to $1,000 from $2.5 millionUSA Truck Inc. on Thursday reported a second-quarter profit of $1,000, a fraction of the trucking company’s reported profit from a year ago. arkansasonline.com


Of course, the news gets even bleaker the further you look. New truck orders sank to a nine-year low in July, according to ACT Research. But that number rebounded slightly in August, with a 6% month-over-month bump.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Writing on the Wall

Writing on the Wall

Not Adding Up

One of the more disagreeable discrepancies of American life in the 21st century is the world according to Washington’s economic bureaus and the world as it actually is.  In short, things don’t add up.  What’s more, the propaganda is so far off the mark, it is downright insulting.

Coming down from the mountain with the latest data tablet… [PT]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports an unemployment rate of just 3.7 percent.  The BLS also reports price inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), of 1.8 percent.  Yet big city streets are lined with tents and panhandlers grumble “that’s all” when you spare them a dollar.

In addition, good people of sound mind and honest intentions are racking up debt like never before.  Mortgage debt recently topped $9.4 trillion. If you didn’t know, this eclipses the 2008 high of $9.3 trillion that was notched at the precise moment the credit market melted down.

Total American household debt, which includes mortgages and student loans, is about $14 trillion – roughly $1 trillion higher than in 2008.  Credit card debt, which is over $1 trillion, is also above the 2008 peak.  To be clear, these debt levels are not signs of economic strength; rather, they are signs of impending disaster.  Moreover, they’re signs that American workers have been given a raw deal.

US CPI, “core” CPI and total consumer credit outstanding. 

How is it that the economy has been growing for a full decade straight, but the average worker has seen no meaningful increase in his income?  Have workers really been sprinting in place this entire time?  How did they end up in this ridiculous situation?

US mortgage debt outstanding and real household wages (real hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees) [PT]

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

No, Autos Are Not “Cheaper Now”

No, Autos Are Not “Cheaper Now”

According to the BLS, inflation in the category of “New Vehicles” has been practically non-existent the past 21 years.

Longtime readers know I’ve long turned a skeptical gaze at official calculations of inflation, offering real-world analyses such as The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001 (August 1, 2016) and Burrito Index Update: Burrito Cost Triples, Official Inflation Up 43% from 2001 (May 31, 2018).

Official claims that grossly understate real-world inflation is a core feature of debt-serfdom and neofeudalism: we’re working harder and longer and getting less for our earnings every year, but this reality is obfuscated by official pronouncements that inflation is 2%–barely above zero.

Meanwhile, quality and quantity are in permanent decline. New BBQ grills rust out in a few years, if not months, appliance paint is so thin a sponge and a bit of cleanser removes the micron-thick coating, and on and on in endless examples of the landfill economy, as new products are soon dumped in the landfill due to near-zero quality control and/or planned obsolescence.

Free-lance writer Bill Rice, Jr. recently analyzed shrinkflation, the inexorable reduction in quantity:

What Does Your Toilet Paper Have to Do With Inflation?

Manufacturers have been engaging in “shrinkflation,” leaving consumers paying more for less, but stealthily.In the guest post below, Bill looks at new car prices, and finds that official inflation for “new vehicles” from November 1983 to November 2013 measured only 43.8 percent… while actual car inflation (based on archived price records in Morris County, NJ) is 4.85 times higher than official CPI “new vehicle” inflation.

Prices for new cars sky-rocketed over 30 years (or did they?)

A lesson in ‘hedonic adjustments’

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Here’s The Proof: How The CPI Is Underrepresenting Food Inflation By 40%

Here’s The Proof: How The CPI Is Underrepresenting Food Inflation By 40%

The “muzzle” on reported inflation has policymakers and analysts perplexed.

As Joseph Carson, former director of economic research at Alliance Bernstein writes in his follow up to a “New Working Theory on Inflation“, numerous economic explanations and theories have been offered, and policymakers are considering making changes to their operating price-targeting framework. Yet, before any decisions are made policymakers should consider all of the factors that could be keeping a “muzzle” on published inflation.

Here are two:

First, a little more than 20 years ago the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced a number of new measurement techniques in the estimation of consumer inflation (see Boskin Commission). So the current business cycle, which started in 2009, is the second consecutive cycle in which these new procedures have been employed.

Statistical changes have been made to account for product substitution, a greater degree of quality changes in products and services and faster introduction of new outlets or ways in which people shop. The introduction of new variables in the estimation of inflation alters the pattern and at various times the rate of change as well.

Prior to their implementation, analysts and government statisticians estimated that the potential reduction in core inflation from all of these statistical changes would range from one-half to a full percentage point. Yet, all of those estimates were looking backwards and there is no guidance from the statistical agencies of the scale of the reduction in reported inflation after implementation.

Odds are high that the impact on reported inflation varies year to year, with some years at the upper end of range of estimate and others at the lower end.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fourth Turning & War of the Worlds

THE FOURTH TURNING & WAR OF THE WORLDS

Image result for fake news cnn Image result for illegal immigrant invasion

Image result for bomb hoax Image result for fourth turning war

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

The paragraph above captures everything that has happened, is happening, and will happen during this Fourth Turning. It was written over two decades ago, but no one can deny its accuracy regarding our present situation. The spark was a financial crash. The response to the financial crash by the financial and governmental entities, along with their Deep State co-conspirators who created the financial collapse due to their greed and malfeasance, led to the incomprehensible election of Donald Trump, as the deplorables in flyover country evoked revenge upon the corrupt establishment.

The chain reaction of unyielding responses by the left and the right accelerates at a breakneck pace, with absolutely no possibility of compromise. A new emergency or winner take all battle seems to be occurring on a weekly basis, with the mid-term elections as the likely trigger for the next phase of this Fourth Turning.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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