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Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary?
Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary? It’s not yet clear that the stock market swoon is predictive or merely a panic attack triggered by a loss of meds. We contrarians can’t help it: when the herd is bullish, we start looking for a reversal. When the herd turns bearish, we […]
Monday Musings on Monetization and Markets (or Fundamentals Don’t Matter, Liquidity Does)
Monday Musings on Monetization and Markets (or Fundamentals Don’t Matter, Liquidity Does) Being I’m not an economist nor associated with any financial or investment institutions nor do I have anything for you (dear reader) to buy or sell, I have total freedom to say what I please and freedom to share what I see. In that spirit, I […]
IMF Warns World “Dangerously Unprepared” For Upcoming Global Recession
IMF Warns World “Dangerously Unprepared” For Upcoming Global Recession In the starkest warning yet about the upcoming global recession, which some believe will hit in late 2019 or 2020 at the latest, the IMF warned that the leaders of the world’s largest countries are “dangerously unprepared” for the consequences of a serious global slowdown. The […]
Some Confucian Calm, Please!
SOME CONFUCIAN CALM, PLEASE! The United States and China look like two punch-drunk prizefighters squaring off for a major championship fight. They have no good reason to fight and every reason to cooperate now that both their stock markets have been in turmoil. Six hundred point market swings down and then up look like symptoms […]
The Fed IS the Ugly Truth
The Fed IS the Ugly Truth Rembrandt van Rijn Man with a falcon on his wrist (possibly St. Bavo) 1661 This Fed thing just keeps going on, and it needs to stop. There is nothing in the discussion about the Federal Reserve these days that has any value other than it provides even more proof […]
Let’s do follow the climate money!
Let’s do follow the climate money! The climate crisis industry incessantly claims that fossil fuel emissions are causing unprecedented temperature, climate and weather changes that pose existential threats to human civilization and our planet. The only solution, Climate Crisis, Inc. insists, is to eliminate the oil, coal and natural gas that provide 80% of the […]
The Fed, China, And The Markets
The Fed, China, And The Markets Amid market volatility and continued downside surprises in global growth, investors are focusing on the Fed and China. Regarding the Fed, the issue is whether and when it could signal potential changes in balance sheet normalisation (as it has on the policy rate path). On China, the question is […]
The Eurozone Is in a Danger Zone
The Eurozone Is in a Danger Zone It is easy to conclude the EU, and the Eurozone in particular, is a financial and systemic time-bomb waiting to happen. Most commentary has focused on problems that are routinely patched over, such as Greece, Italy, or the impending rescue of Deutsche Bank. This is a mistake. The […]
Preparation is Vital. 2019 is Destined for Chaos
Preparation is Vital. 2019 is Destined for Chaos As you make your New Year’s resolutions, make sure you allot room for some much needed protection as we head into 2019 and beyond. It may not be the rosy picture many of you were hoping for, but sadly, 2019 appears to be destined for increased chaos, […]
Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints
Sirinarth Mekvorawuth/EyeEm/Getty Images Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints With policy interest rates near zero in most advanced economies (and just above 2% even in the fast-growing US), there is little room for monetary policy to maneuver in a recession without considerable creativity. But those who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are stupefyingly naive. […]
World’s Largest Hedge Fund Manager Sees Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status
World’s Largest Hedge Fund Manager Sees Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status With the end of 2018 marking the 40th anniversary of China opening up & reforming (and with an increasingly loud group of market participants questioning the foundations of China’s economic miracle – and more importantly, it’s future), Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio believes now is […]
2019 Considered…Macro Population Cycle & Business Cycle Turning Down Together?
2019 Considered…Macro Population Cycle & Business Cycle Turning Down Together? Well, 2019 is here and it’s time to consider what sort of growth is possible. Speaking from a macro’est viewpoint, it’s helpful to acknowledge that 90% of the wealth/ income/ savings and nearly 90% of global energy is consumed by the high and upper middle income nations of […]
Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?
Getty images Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008? Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions Even people who don’t follow the stock market closely are aware that the global economy is weakening and appears to be heading into recession. For those who track the stock market, the signs are ominous: the U.S. was […]
Weekly Commentary: Global Markets’ Plumbing Problem
Weekly Commentary: Global Markets’ Plumbing Problem “Goldilocks with a capital ‘J’,” exclaimed an enthusiastic Bloomberg Television analyst. The Dow was up 747 points in Friday trading (more than erasing Thursday’s 660-point drubbing) on the back of a stellar jobs report and market-soothing comments from Fed Chairman “Jay” Powell. December non-farm payrolls surged 312,000. The strongest […]
The Ugly Truth
The Ugly Truth For years critics of central bank policy have been dismissed as negative nellies, but the ugly truth is staring us all in the face: Market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central bank jawboning and not organic growth and now the jig is up. As I’ve been saying for a […]
