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The Black Elephant in the Room
The Black Elephant in the Room ALMOST EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT YOU MEAN NOW WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT BLACK SWANS That unexpected event, which upends all the plans you had and turns your life – or everyone’s – upside down. An apparent surprise, but which, once the event has happened, is rationalized, making it seem predictable and giving […]
Has OPEC finally won the war against shale oil?
Has OPEC finally won the war against shale oil? I have maintained for the past six years that a key goal of OPEC has been to so demoralize investors in shale oil that they stop sending money to the companies that drill for it. As I’ve written previously, I believe that OPEC’s contest with the shale […]
Quantitative easing: how the world got hooked on magicked-up money
© Chronicle / Alamy Stock Photo Quantitative easing: how the world got hooked on magicked-up money Going cold turkey would finish off a dysfunctional global financial system that’s now hopelessly addicted to emergency infusions. The only solution is surgery on the system itself The world economy is a mess. The system, notionally governed by the […]
How Breakdown Cascades Into Collapse
How Breakdown Cascades Into Collapse Maintaining the illusion of confidence, permanence and stability serves the interests of those benefiting from the bubbles and those who prefer the safety of the herd, even as the herd thunders toward the precipice. The misconception that collapse is an all or nothing phenomenon is common: Either the system rights itself with a […]
To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue
To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue What allows any type of energy to be sustainable? I would argue that one of the requirements for sustainability is adequate production of taxable revenue. Company managements depend upon taxable revenue for many purposes, including funding new investments and paying dividends to shareholders. Governments depend upon […]
Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Goods and Services
Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Goods and Services Inflation can be considered a tax, an especially regressive one, falling harder on those with lower income and/or assets. As we’ve noted previously, the Federal Reserve’s “M2” monetary aggregate began growing significantly faster than the “GDP” measure of economic output in the United States beginning around 2008, […]
Plunge of Retail Inventories, Collapse of New & Used Vehicle Inventories: The Shortages Depicted in Charts
Plunge of Retail Inventories, Collapse of New & Used Vehicle Inventories: The Shortages Depicted in Charts Inventories at retailers document this mess. Turns out, when the US government spends $5 trillion in borrowed fiscal stimulus over 16 months, and the Fed hands out $4 trillion in monetary stimulus over the same period, causing asset prices […]
Highest Inflation in Thirty Years Vs. Denial, Hand-Waving and Excuses
Highest Inflation in Thirty Years Vs. Denial, Hand-Waving and Excuses Photo by Joshua Earle Stepping on a Lego in bare feet hurts. Once you know the Lego is there, and it hurts when you step on it, you can’t ignore it. That Lego is right out in the open, after all. High inflation feels very similar. At […]
The U.S. Shale Revolution Has Surrendered to Reality
The U.S. Shale Revolution Has Surrendered to Reality Fracking companies aren’t drilling as investment continues to dry up. Image: Fossil fuel oil well. Credit: CL Baker. CC BY 2.0 “Drill, baby, drill is gone forever.” That was the recent assessment of Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman of the American oil industry’s future potential. As Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, […]
Weekly Commentary: Under Fire
Weekly Commentary: Under Fire The week had an ominous feel. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped another seven bps to 1.29% – completely disregarding much stronger-than-expected reports on consumer and producer prices. German bund yields fell another six bps to a three-month low negative 0.35%. Equities were down for the week in Europe, but the notable equities […]
The Ugly And Difficult Hunt For The True Economy
The Ugly And Difficult Hunt For The True Economy Good luck with acquiring a clear view of our economic future. It is shrouded and cloaked under an ocean of often irrelevant facts and figures. Somewhere between what we are told is occurring in the economy and what we see happening on Main Streets across America […]
Greed and Its Offsets
Greed and Its Offsets Farmland shouldn’t be used to expiate the carbon guilt of the rich, argues Simon Fairlie. — Bill Gates’s recently published book on climate change tells us little that anyone who is averagely well read on the subject didn’t know anyway.1 As one might expect, he advocates technological fixes, most of which have […]
MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule.
MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule. A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule. IMAGE: GETTY A remarkable new study by a director at one of […]
Bank of Canada Tapers Weekly QE To C$2BN, Sees Lift Off In “Sometime In Second Half Of 2022”
Bank of Canada Tapers Weekly QE To C$2BN, Sees Lift Off In “Sometime In Second Half Of 2022” As expected, the Bank of Canada took another step to normalize the emergency levels of stimulus, when it announced that it is tapering its bond purchases from C$3BN weekly to C$2BN, in what it hopes to telegraph […]
Inflation On Track into 2024
Inflation On Track into 2024 COMMENT: Marty, it is amazing how you are the only one capable of forecasting this trend years in advance. I have been attending your WEC events since 2011. You have forecast long ago that the deflation would end in 2020 and that this wave would be inflationary with shortages in commodities. […]
