Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CLXXXV–
Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1

This is a relatively long Contemplation that I am going to break into several parts and was prompted by the horrific situation that continues to unfold across a number of U.S. states hammered by Hurricane Helene (See this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and/or this.). In particular, it has been the Asheville region of western North Carolina that has suffered the greatest from this hurricane that made landfall at Big Bend, Florida on September 26, 2024–almost one thousand kilometres (560 miles) from Asheville. 

First, this particular hurricane hit home with me a tad more than other extreme weather events simply because my sister and her family lived, up until a couple of years ago, in Asheville, North Carolina, and very close to the area devastated by the torrential rains. They moved further east in NC for work-related reasons not long ago. 

Regardless, I am always concerned during the U.S. hurricane season since my 80-year-old mother, 90-year-old stepfather, and a cousin live in the St. Petersburg/Tampa region of Florida–both on the Intercoastal and thus extremely impacted by tropical storms. 

Although, fortuitously, my mum and stepdad have recently built a second home just a few houses away from my sister in NC to spend half the year at (most importantly some of the hurricane season) and as ‘luck’ would have it were in NC and for the most part out of harm’s way this time–my sister reports some strong winds and a few large trees down but no significant damage where they all live. My cousin reported first floor flooding of his home in Florida, as was the case for the condominium building my mum/stepdad have resided in for 30+ years. 

This is the first full half-year my mum and stepdad have spent in North Carolina, with the home being completed only last year–it was put on hold for a couple of years while my mum battled Stage 4 lymphoma (the same disease that took my dad’s life three years ago when his third fight with it spread to his brain–what are the chances both parents develop lymphoma? I guess that’s not great for my siblings and me…). 

Note that as I write this another significant hurricane (Milton) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico with its sights set on impacting the Florida coastline, especially the St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay region, where a state of emergency has been declared for most counties and a slew of mandatory evacuations–including my mother’s/cousin’s county. Things sure are getting ‘spicy’ for coastal residents of this world; well, maybe everyone given the trajectory climate change is taking. 

View from my mum’s condominium balcony in Florida looking west with the Intercoastal in the foreground and Gulf of Mexico in the background (Hurricane Milton will be approaching from that direction). Note how close all the buildings are to sea level.
Photo by author, March 2024–first visit south in 15+ years to help celebrate my mum’s 80th.

Second, my own immediate reaction to the significant damage and a few articles/conversations with others has me viewing the tragedy that is unfolding as another step in the path towards ‘collapse’ of the U.S. nation as currently constructed. Another straw, as it were, on the camel’s back that supports societal complexity for this particular nation state/empire–which would have repercussions for most other societies on our planet given U.S. global hegemony (and its faltering nature). This may be particularly true for my home nation of Canada, a veritable mouse residing next to the elephant that is the U.S. Empire–actually a vassal/client state of the empire, after coming into existence as a vassal/client state of the British and French Empires. 

Of course, the thesis I will be discussing is not unique to this particular tragedy that has impacted a specific region of the United States. One could easily find dozens of such horrific plights that have occurred across our globe this past year alone, from flooding to civil war to supply chain disruptions to drought to infrastructure deterioration to wildfires to economic ‘collapse’ to pestilence to nation-state wars to massive crop failures to earthquakes to power grid disruptions, etc. etc..

Power outage map that shows the devastation to the electrical grid by Hurricane Helene.

Once again, I am using the lens of archaeologist Joseph Tainter’s proposal regarding societal collapse and how, after a prolonged period of diminishing returns on investments in complexity–where reserves/resources are used to maintain/sustain/grow complexity–a sudden stress surge cannot be adequately adapted/responded to because the systems that are needed/depended upon are already stretched and stressed (see:  The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge University Press, 1988. (ISBN 978-0-521-38673-9)). Stressors upon stressors upon stressors…

Stress is a constant feature of any society. Most of the stresses encountered can be accommodated for/adapted to/overcome/solved rather easily during a society’s growth phase when reserves/resources are plentiful and in a state of surplus, and society is not overly complex; they are typically addressed by way of increased complexity. But with time, these stresses accumulate, require evermore resources to address, and seem to, invariably, result in societal ‘collapse’. 

Before I get too much further into my personal thoughts, let’s first delineate what Tainter means by complexity and collapse. Please excuse the lengthy quoted passages from his text, but they are important to any understanding of this process and my general point, and I want to be clear regarding his thesis by using his words. 

What is complexity?
The growth of complexity in human societies refers to size, distinctiveness and number of parts, variety of social roles, distinctiveness of social personalities, and variety of mechanisms to organize parts into a whole. Concepts for inequality and heterogeneity are important and interrelated but not necessarily positively correlated to sociopolitical complexity. Inequality is a vertical differentiation or ranking with unequal access to resources. Heterogeneity is the number of distinctive parts/components and how a population is distributed amongst them. 

Complex societies are an anomaly in human history with autonomous, self-sufficient local communities being the norm (99.8% of human existence). Large, hierarchical complex states have only been around the past 6000 years or so, but once established, have expanded and dominated.

While ‘simpler’ societies are indeed smaller (from a handful to a few thousand) than ‘complex’ ones, they still displayed great variation in size, complexity, ranking, and economic differentiation. They tend to be organized upon kinship relations. Leadership is minimal (based upon personality, charisma, and persuasion) and without privilege or coercive power–any that does exist is usually restricted to special circumstances. Equitable access to resources exists and wealth accumulation does not. Where political ambition exists, it is channeled towards public good and any acquisition of excess resources is redistributed, bringing greater social status. 

Where more complex political differentiation exists, permanent positions of authority/rank can exist in an ‘office’ that can be hereditary in nature. Inequality becomes more pervasive. These groups tend to be larger and more densely populated. Political organisation is larger, extending beyond the local community. A political economy arises with rank having authority to direct labour and economic surpluses. With greater size, comes a need for more social organisation that is less dependent upon kinship relations. As a result the kin-ties that constrain individual political ambitions are lost.

Basically, ”[c]omplex societies are problem-solving organizations, in which more parts, different kinds of parts, more social differentiation, more inequality, and more kinds of centralization and control emerge as circumstances require.” (p. 37) They are the anomaly within human history.

What is ‘collapse’?
The discovery of past/lost civilizations raises the implication that “civilizations are fragile, impermanent things” and that modern societies may likewise be vulnerable (although many argue that science, technology, and human ingenuity will prevent it). 

A recurrent theme in Western history has been social disintegration and the reason why complex societies do so is significant to those living in one. The theories regarding collapse can be categorised into a number of themes:

“1. Depletion or cessation of a vital resource or resources on which the society depends.
 2. The establishment of a new resource base.
3. The occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe.
4. Insufficient response to circumstances.
5. Other complex societies.
6. Intruders.
7. Class conflict, social contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehaviour.
8. Social dysfunction.
9. Mystical factors.
10. Chance concatenation of events.
11. Economic factors.” (p. 42)

Tainter’s general thesis attempts to be applicable “across time, space, and type of society” without limitation to specific cases. As he argues,  “Collapse…is a political process. It may, and often does, have consequences in such areas as economics, art, and literature, but it is fundamentally a matter of the sociopolitical sphere. A society has collapsed when it displays a rapid, significant loss of an established level of sociopolitical complexity. 

[And, it manifests itself] as:
-a lower degree of stratification and social differentiation;
-less economic and occupational specialization, of individuals, groups, and territories;
-less centralized control–that is, less regulation and integration of diverse economic and political groups by elites;
-less behavioral control and regimentation;
-less investment in the epiphenomena of complexity, those elements that define the concept of ‘civilization’: monumental architecture, artistic and literary achievements, and the like;
-less flow of information between individuals, between political and economic groups, and between a center and its periphery;
-less sharing, trading, and redistribution of resources;
-less overall coordination and organization of individuals and groups;
-a smaller territory within a single political unit.” (p. 4)

In Part 2, I will explore diminishing returns and why this leads to societal ‘collapse’.

While waiting for it, consider your society, the various stressors that are continually impacting it, and how the various institutions that most of us rely upon (perhaps unwisely) are dealing with it. Are they increasing complexity and thus the drawdown of finite resources, especially energy? My guess is yes! In fact, they’re likely doubling and tripling down on greater complexity. 

If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
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Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

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You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially Catton’s Overshoot and Tainter’s Collapse: see here.

Released September 30, 2024

It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.